San Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh Pirates Preview
Wednesday’s matchup between the Pirates and Padres is set to get started at 4:10 PM ET from PETCO Park in San Diego, CA. The Padres are favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -136 compared to the Pirates at +116. The over/under line is currently 8.5 runs.
Pittsburgh will be looking to snap a nine-game losing streak, as they are 56-63 and 5th in the NL Central. Martín Pérez is starting for the Padres, while the Pirates are going with Mitch Keller.
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San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Trends and Key Stats
- The Pirates are 0-5 across their last five road games. They have gone 2-3 vs. the runline.
- In the Padres’ five most recent home games, their record stands at 4-1 (SU) with 1-4 against the spread.
- Over their last ten games as the favorite, the Padres have a straight-up record of 9-1, while going 4-6 against the runline.
- When playing as the underdog, the Pirates have won 1-9 of their previous ten games straight-up, while going 7-3 against the runline.
San Diego cruised to a 3-0 win over the Pirates in the most recent game of this series. The Padres had a huge 1st inning, scoring all three of their runs, and the Pirates were held in check the rest of the way. Heading into the game, the Padres were favored at -254 on the money line.
Michael King started for the Padres and picked up the win, going six innings and not giving up a run. He finished the game with 10 strikeouts but didn’t issue a walk. Luis L. Ortiz only went five innings for the Pirates, giving up one run on three hits.
David Peralta provided the big blow for the Padres, as he homered in the 1st inning and finished with two hits and an RBI. Manny Machado and Luis Arraez each had two hits and scored a run for San Diego’s offense.
San Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction
The Pirates are 56-63 overall and are 11 games behind the Brewers in the NL Central. They have lost nine straight games, and they are 1-9 in their last ten games. So far, they have gone 17-15 in divisional games. Pittsburgh is closing out this series on the road, and they are 29-32 on the road this year.
As the underdog, the Pirates are 32-42 this season, while going 24-21 as the favorite. Their longest losing streak as the underdog this year is ten games. Pittsburgh’s overall series record is 16-17-5, and they have dropped three straight series overall. At home, they have dropped two straight series.
Despite a losing run line record overall this season, the Pirates have been a profitable team to back on the run line when they are the underdog. They are 50-24 on the run line as the underdog this season, and their average run margin in those games is -0.2. They have also been a solid bet on the run line on the road, going 37-24 on the run line away from home.
The Pittsburgh Pirates have played 20 games this season with an over/under line of 8.5 runs, and their record in those games is 24-17. Overall, the Pirates have an over/under record of 56-62 for the season. The combined run average in their games this year is 8.5 runs, and their games have averaged 8 runs per game. The under is currently on a two-game streak for Pittsburgh.
Pittsburgh is sending right-hander Mitch Keller to the mound today vs. the Padres. Keller has made 23 starts this season and has a record of 10-6 with a 3.56 ERA. In his 23 appearances, he has turned in 12 quality starts and has a WHIP of 1.23. Keller’s last outing was a rough one, as he gave up seven earned runs in four innings of work vs. the Dodgers. Before that, he had gone three straight outings without giving up more than two earned runs. Keller has been much better at home this season, coming in with a 5-2 record and 2.83 ERA compared to 5-4 with a 5.06 ERA on the road.
As a team, the Pirates are averaging just 4.2 runs per game, which is 22nd in the MLB. This is the same average they have on the road and just 4.1 runs per game at home. Overall, they are batting .235, which is 18th in the league, and are also near the bottom of the league in on-base percentage, slugging, and OPS.
Bryan Reynolds has been the Pirates’ top hitter this season, with a batting average of .288 to go along with 19 home runs and 69 RBIs. He is also on a five-game hitting streak. Oneil Cruz and Bryan De La Cruz have also been solid power threats for the Pirates, as both have 18 homers this season.
San Diego is 68-53 overall this season, and they are 3rd in the NL West, 3.5 games behind the Dodgers for the division lead. The Padres have gone 19-18 in divisional games this year. The Padres have won two straight games, and they have gone 9-1 over their last 10 games, which is the best mark in the NL.
At home, the Padres are 32-29 this year and have gone 36-24 on the road. As the favorite, the Padres are 42-31 this year and 26-22 as the underdog. San Diego has won seven straight series, and they are 24-13-3 in series this year.
When the Padres win, they do so by an average of 3.7 runs per game, but when they lose, they lose by an average of 3.5 runs per game. San Diego is 63-58 against the run line this season, and they are 23-38 ATS at home. Their overall run line record is 40-20 on the road, and they have covered the run line in their last game. As the underdog, they have been a profitable 33-15 ATS on the run line.
San Diego Padres games have gone over the over/under line of 8.5 runs in 16 of 30 games this season, including their last two games. The Padres have a combined run average of 9.0 runs per game, and their games have an over/under record of 64-56 on the season.
Left-hander Martín Pérez gets the start for the Padres today as he faces the Pirates at home. So far this season, he has made 18 starts and has a record of 2-5 with an ERA of 4.78. Looking back at his last outing, Pérez finished with a no-decision against the Marlins, giving up two earned runs in seven innings of work. He has made seven quality starts this year and is averaging 7.12 strikeouts per nine innings. At home, Pérez has an ERA of 4.70 compared to 6.43 on the road.
San Diego comes into today’s game as the top hitting team in the league, with a batting average of .265. They are also 1st in the league in fewest strikeouts per game and have the 8th best OPS in the league. The Padres have also been good at avoiding soft contact, as their BABIP of .30 is 6th in the league. Overall, they are averaging 4.7 runs per game.
Jurickson Profar has been the Padres top power threat this season, with 19 home runs, which is the best mark on the team. He is also the team’s leader in RBIs, coming into the game with 72. Profar comes into the game with a strong on-base percentage of .394 and is hitting .295 overall. Over his last five games, Luis Arraez has gone 8/22.
Our prediction for today’s Pirates vs. Padres game is to take the Padres on the money line at -136. We actually have the Padres winning this one by a score of 5-4, which would give you a chance to take the over, as the line is currently sitting at 8.5 runs.
Looking at today’s starters, we have Martín Pérez finishing with four strikeouts, which is higher than our projection for Mitch Keller, who we have finishing with five. However, we do have Keller going longer in this one, as he is projected to go four innings, compared to Pérez, who we have going five.
San Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Tips
- Take the Padres on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Pirates (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over
San Diego Padres Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Yu Darvish | Out | Personal |
| Jay Groome | Out | Suspension |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | Out | Tricep |
| Wandy Peralta | Out | Groin |
| Luis Patiño | Out | Elbow |
| Stephen Kolek | Out | Forearm |
Pittsburgh Pirates Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Johan Oviedo | Out | Elbow |
| Marco Gonzales | Out | Forearm |
| Daulton Jefferies | Out | Elbow |
| Joshua Palacios | Out | Hamstring |
| Ryan Borucki | Out | Triceps |
| Dauri Moreta | Out | Elbow |
| Nick Gonzales | Out | Groin |
| Carmen Mlodzinski | Out | Shoulder |
| Jared Jones | Out | Lat |
| Colin Holderman | Out | Wrist |
| Endy Rodríguez | Out | Elbow |
