San Diego Padres vs New York Mets Preview
David Peterson is starting for the Mets, and he will be facing off against Michael King and the Padres. This NL matchup has a first pitch time of 8:40 PM ET from PETCO Park in San Diego, and the Padres are the betting favorite at -151. The money line odds for a Mets win are sitting at +127.
The over/under line is currently at 7.5 runs, and the forecast for Saturday’s game calls for clear skies and temperatures in the low 70s. The Mets are 3rd in the NL East, while the Padres are 3rd in the NL West.
Check out BetCoco for San Diego Padres – New York Mets odds
San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets Trends and Key Stats
- The Mets are 1-4 across their last five road games. They have gone 1-4 vs. the runline.
- In the Padres’ five most recent home games, their record stands at 2-3 (SU) with 1-4 against the spread.
- Over their last ten games when playing as the favorite, the Padres have won 6-4 straight-up, and have a 5-5 record vs. the runline.
- Over their previous ten games as the underdog, the Mets have a straight-up record of 3-7 and a 3-7 record vs. the runline.
San Diego cruised to a 7-0 win over the Mets in the most recent game of this series. The Padres had a huge 2nd inning, scoring three of their seven runs. As for the Mets, they only had two hits and struck out 14 times in the game.
Joe Musgrove started for the Padres and picked up the win, going seven innings and not giving up a run. He finished the game with nine strikeouts but didn’t issue a single walk. Paul Blackburn got the start for the Mets and took the loss, giving up five earned runs in just 2 1/3 innings of work.
Luis Arraez and Kyle Higashioka each homered for the Padres, while Manny Machado scored three times and drove in a run while going 3/5. David Peralta also had a two-hit game and scored a run for San Diego’s offense.
San Diego Padres vs New York Mets Prediction
The Mets are 67-62 overall and trail the Phillies by 7.5 games in the NL East. New York is 22-17 against other teams in the NL East. The Mets are on the road today, closing out their series with the Padres, and they are 32-29 on the road this year.
As the favorite, the Mets are 43-35 this year and 24-27 as the underdog. New York’s overall series record is 21-16-7, and they have won two straight series. So far, they are 6-4 across their last 10 games.
When the Mets win, they win big. Their average run margin in victories is +3.6, but when they lose, they lose by an average of -3.5 runs. Their overall run line record is 60-69, and they are 32-29 against the run line on the road.
The Mets are on the road in San Diego today, and the over/under line for the game is set at 7.5 runs. The combined run average in Mets games this season is 9.3 runs per game, and their over/under record is 65-60. When the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs, the Mets’ record is 13-14. Overall, 70.5% of their games this season have had over/under lines set higher than 7.5 runs.
New York is sending left-hander David Peterson to the mound today vs. the Padres. He has made 14 starts this season and has a record of 7-1 with a 3.00 ERA. Looking at his overall numbers, Peterson has a WHIP of 1.36 and has issued 4.04 walks per nine innings compared to 7.38 strikeouts. So far, he has turned in seven quality starts and has a record of 4-0 on the road with a 3.01 ERA. Peterson most recently faced the Orioles, where he finished with a no-decision, giving up two earned runs in seven innings of work.
Overall, the Mets are averaging 4.8 runs per game, which is 11th in the league. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5 runs per contest. As a team, they are 5th in home runs and have the 8th best team batting average in the league. Over their last 10 games, both Francisco Lindor and Mark Vientos have three homers, with Lindor batting .341 and Vientos hitting .317.
Francisco Lindor has been on a tear of late, going 14/41 in his last 10 games with three homers and six RBIs. He is also on a four-game hitting streak. For the season, Lindor is batting .268 with 25 homers and 73 RBIs. Pete Alonso has also been a big power threat for the Mets, as he has 27 homers and 70 RBIs.
San Diego is 73-57 overall this season, and they are 4.5 games behind the Dodgers for the NL West lead. So far, they are 20-20 in divisional games. The Padres will host the Mets today with an overall home record of 36-31, and they are 37-26 on the road.
This year, the Padres have been good as the favorite, going 46-35, and they are 29-23 as the favorite at home. San Diego’s overall series record is 26-14-3, and they are currently tied with the Mets in their series. Heading into today’s game, the Padres are 6-4 over their last 10 games.
San Diego has been a solid run line bet this season, going 68-62 overall. However, they have been much better on the road, going 41-22 compared to just 27-40 at home. They have been a better run line bet as an underdog, going 34-15 compared to 34-47 as a favorite. Their average run margin in winning games is 3.7, while it drops to -3.5 in losses.
The San Diego Padres have been a popular over bet this season, with 59.2% of their games having over/under lines set higher than today’s 7.5-run total. Overall, the Padres have a 70-59 over/under record, and their games have averaged a combined 9.0 runs per contest.
Michael King gets the start for the Padres today and comes in with a record of 11-6 and an ERA of 3.18. So far this season, he has made 24 starts, and opponents are batting .217 off the right-hander. King has pitched well at home, coming in with a record of 3-4 and an ERA of 3.83. In his last outing, he went six innings, giving up two earned runs, and got the win. King has won each of his last two starts and has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three straight outings. His WHIP for the season is 1.18.
Heading into today’s game, the Padres are the top-hitting team in the league, with a batting average of .266. They are also 1st in the league in fewest strikeouts per game and have the best slugging percentage in the league. San Diego’s offense is averaging 4.8 runs per game and has been even better on the road, at 5 runs per contest.
Jurickson Profar and Manny Machado are tied for the team lead with 20 homers apiece. Profar also leads the Padres with 77 RBIs, which is the best mark in the league. Machado is 2nd on the team in RBIs, at 74. Machado has gone deep just once in his last five games, while Profar has one homer in his last five games, but has gone 5/19 (.263) in that stretch.
With the money line payout, we see the Padres as the best bet in this one, and at -151, there is some good value. Our predicted score is 6-5 in favor of the Padres, and with the over/under sitting at 7.5 runs, we see this as a high-scoring game.
Looking at some potential props, we have Michael King finishing with five strikeouts compared to David Peterson with five. However, we have Peterson going six innings and King going five, so if you’re looking at a starting pitcher prop, Peterson’s over on strikeouts is a good option.
San Diego Padres vs New York Mets Betting Tips
- Take the Padres on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Mets (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
San Diego Padres Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Yu Darvish | Out | Groin |
| Jay Groome | Out | Suspension |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | Out | Tricep |
| Wandy Peralta | Out | Groin |
| Ha-Seong Kim | Out | Shoulder |
| Luis Patiño | Out | Elbow |
| Stephen Kolek | Out | Forearm |
New York Mets Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Brooks Raley | Out | Elbow |
| Paul Blackburn | Questionable | Hand |
| Sean Reid-Foley | Out | Shoulder |
| Drew Smith | Out | Elbow |
| Kodai Senga | Out | Calf |
| Ronny Mauricio | Out | Knee |
| Christian Scott | Out | Elbow |
| Christopher Larez | Out | Personal |
