San Diego Padres vs New York Mets Prediction & Betting Tips 8/22/2024

San Diego Padres vs New York Mets Preview

First pitch for Thursday’s matchup between the Mets and Padres is set for 9:40 PM ET. This one is being played at PETCO Park in San Diego, and the Padres are favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -154. The money line odds for a Mets win are at +131, and the over/under line is at 7.5 runs.

Luis Severino will start for the Mets, and he is facing off against Dylan Cease for the Padres. New York is 3rd in the NL East, and the Padres are 3rd in the NL West.

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San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets Trends and Key Stats

• The Mets are 2-3 across their last five road games. They have gone 2-3 vs. the runline.
• In the Padres’ five most recent home games, their record stands at 2-3 (SU) with 1-4 against the spread.
• In their last ten games as the favorite, the Padres have a record of 6-4 straight-up, and have gone 4-6 against the runline.
• Looking at the Mets’ previous ten games as the underdog they are 4-6 straight-up and 4-6 vs. the runline.

San Diego Padres vs New York Mets Prediction

Heading into their last game vs. the Orioles, the Mets closed out the series with a 4-3 win. Leading up to the game, they were the heavy favorite at -142. It got a little tense at the end, as the Orioles pulled to within one run in the 8th, but Edwin Diaz was able to close things out and pick up the save.

Sean Manaea put together a good start for the Mets, going seven innings and giving up just three runs on three hits. He also issued only one walk and struck out nine Orioles batters. The Mets’s offense was carried by Francisco Lindor, who went 2/4 with a homer and a run scored.

The Mets are 66-61 overall, putting them 3rd in the NL East, 8.5 games behind the Phillies for the division lead. New York will be on the road for today’s game vs. the Padres, and they are 31-28 on the road this season. They have gone 22-17 against other teams in the NL East.

As the underdog, the Mets have lost three straight games, and they are 23-26 as the underdog overall. New York has been slightly better as the favorite, going 43-35 this year. The Mets have won two straight series and have an overall series record of 21-16-7.

The Mets have been a .500 team this season, with an average run differential of +0.2 runs per game. Their run line record is 59-68, including a 31-28 mark on the road. They have been favored in 78 games and have gone 31-47 against the run line in those contests.

Today’s game between the New York Mets and San Diego Padres has an over/under line of 7.5 runs, which is lower than the average over/under line for Mets games this season. The combined run average for Mets games this season is 9.3 runs, and their over/under record is 64-59. When the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs, the Mets have gone over 12 times and under 13 times this season. Overall, 71.7% of Mets games have had higher over/under lines than 7.5 runs.

Luis Severino gets the start for the Mets today and comes in with a record of 8-6 and an ERA of 3.91. So far this year, he has made 24 starts and has one complete game shutout. Looking back at his last outing, Severino was excellent, going nine innings and not giving up a run. He finished with eight strikeouts in that outing. Before that, he had lost three straight starts. So far, he has a record of 3-4 on the road with a 4.98 ERA compared to 5-2 at home with a 3.93 ERA.

Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso have been swinging the bat well for the Mets of late, with Lindor hitting .366 over his last 10 games and Alonso going 12/34 with three homers over this stretch. For the season, Alonso is batting just .243, but he does have a team-high 27 homers. Lindor is right behind him with 25 homers and is batting .266.

Overall, the Mets offense is 5th in home runs and 8th in batting average. They are also 11th in runs per game at 4.8. As a team, they are batting .249 and have an on-base percentage of .322. New York comes into the game with a team OPS of .742, which is 7th in the league.

The Padres will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Twins with an 11-4 loss. San Diego was actually the slight favorite at home going into the game but fell behind big early, as the Twins scored seven times in the 4th.

Matt Waldron got the start for the Padres and took the loss. He only lasted 4 1/3 innings, giving up 10 earned runs. San Diego’s offense scored their only four runs in the 2nd inning. Jackson Merrill hit a homer, and Donovan Solano went 1/2 with a homer.

San Diego is hosting the Mets today with an overall record of 72-56, which has them tied with the Diamondbacks for 2nd place in the NL West. Currently, they trail the Dodgers by four games in the division. The Padres have gone just 20-20 in divisional games this year.

At home, the Padres are 35-30 this year and have been really good on the road, going 37-26. As the favorite, the Padres are 45-34 and 27-22 as the underdog. San Diego’s overall series record is 26-14-3, and they won their most recent series vs. the Twins.

San Diego is 26-39 against the run line at home this season, compared to 41-22 on the road. The Padres are 34-15 against the run line as underdogs, but just 33-46 as favorites. Their average run margin in winning games is +3.7, while it’s -3.5 in losses.

The San Diego Padres are at home today against the New York Mets. The over/under line for the game is set at 7.5 runs. The Padres have played in 77 games this season with over/under lines higher than 7.5 runs, which accounts for 60.2% of their games. Their combined run average for the season is 9.0 runs per game, and their over/under record is 69-58. The over has hit in three straight games for the Padres.

Dylan Cease will be looking to build off his last outing, where he picked up the win vs. the Rockies. In that start, Cease went 5 2/3 innings and gave up three earned runs. Looking at his overall numbers, Cease has made 26 starts and has a record of 12-9. His ERA for the season is 3.46, along with a WHIP of 1.02. Cease has one complete game shutout this year and 13 quality starts. For the season, Cease has a total of 186 strikeouts, and his ERA at home is 3.29 compared to 4.55 on the road.

San Diego has been one of the league’s top offensive teams this season, as they are the top batting average team in the league and are also 10th in runs scored at 4.8 runs per game. The Padres have been even better on the road, averaging 5 runs per contest. Collectively, they have the league’s best strikeout rate and are 1st in team on-base percentage.

Jurickson Profar and Manny Machado are the Padres’ top power threats this season, as they are both tied for the team lead with 20 homers. Profar is also the team’s top run producer, with 76 RBIs. Over his last six games, Machado is hitting .273 with two homers. Jackson Merrill is also a key power threat in the lineup, as he has 18 homers and is currently on a six-game hitting streak.

Our prediction for this Mets vs. Padres matchup is that the Padres will pick up a 6-5 win at home. With the money line payout sitting at -154, we think this is the best way to go in terms of a straight-up pick.

Looking at some potential player props, we have Dylan Cease finishing with six strikeouts compared to Luis Severino with just five. And in terms of the Mets’ lineup, they are projected to hit nine home runs compared to the Mets with just six.

San Diego Padres vs New York Mets Betting Tips

• Take the Padres on the moneyline
• On the run line we like the Mets (+1.5)
• Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over

San Diego Padres Injury Report

New York Mets Injury Report