San Diego Padres vs Minnesota Twins Preview
At 9:40 PM ET, the Twins and Padres square off in an interleague matchup. This one is being played at PETCO Park in San Diego, and the Twins are 2nd in the AL Central, while the Padres are 2nd in the NL West.
Minnesota has a money line odds of +134 compared to the Padres at -159, and the over/under line is at 7.5 runs. Zebby Matthews is starting for the Twins, while Michael King is on the mound for the Padres. FS1 will have this game on TV.
Check out BetCoco for San Diego Padres – Minnesota Twins odds
San Diego Padres vs. Minnesota Twins Trends and Key Stats
- Over the course of their previous five away games, the Twins have recorded a 3-2 record, with a 2-3 performance on the runline.
- On the other side, the Padres have gone 2-3 (SU) and 1-4 in their previous five home contests.
- The Padres have a straight-up record of 7-3 in their last ten games as the favorite, and a 4-6 record vs. the runline.
- When playing as the underdog, the Twins have won 5-5 of their previous ten games straight-up, while going 7-3 against the runline.
San Diego Padres vs Minnesota Twins Prediction
The Twins will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Rangers with a 6-5 loss. This was especially tough, as they held a lead going into the 7th inning before the Rangers scored five runs in the bottom of the 7th. Minnesota was the -108 favorite on the money line going into the game.
Pablo Lopez was excellent for the Twins, going six innings and not giving up a run. He also issued just three hits and struck out three. However, the Twins couldn’t close things out, and Jhoan Duran took the loss out of the bullpen. The Twins also wasted a big game from Ryan Jeffers, who homered in the 1st inning, going 3/3.
Minnesota is 70-54 overall and trails the Guardians by two games in the AL Central. The Twins are on the road today to take on the Padres, and they are 28-17 against other teams in the division. Minnesota’s overall series record is 24-13-3, and they have won two straight series.
At home, the Twins have gone 36-24 this year and are just above .500 at 34-30 on the road. As the favorite, the Twins are 55-31 this year and 15-23 as the underdog. Their most recent series win came against the Rangers, taking the series 3-1. Currently, they are 6-4 over their last 10 games.
The Twins have a run line record of 62-62 this season, and they are 35-29 against the run line on the road. Their average run differential on the road is +0.2 runs per game, and they have covered the run line in three straight games on the road. Minnesota’s average run differential in winning games is +3.7 runs per game, while it is -3.5 runs per game in losses.
The Minnesota Twins have played in 78 games with over/under lines set higher than 7.5 runs this season, which accounts for 62.9% of their contests. Their games have averaged 9.2 runs per game, and their over/under record for the season is 63-57. When the over/under line has been set at 7.5 runs, they have gone over the total 19 times and under 14 times. Their games have had an average over/under line of 8 runs per game.
Zebby Matthews will be making his 2nd start of the season, and it will be on the road against the Padres. In his first start, he picked up a win at home vs. the Royals, going 5 innings and giving up 2 earned runs. He did give up a home run in that outing.
Carlos Santana has struggled at the plate for the Twins of late, batting just .182 over his last seven games. However, he does have three homers during that stretch and is 2nd on the team with 55 RBIs. Ryan Jeffers and Carlos Santana are the top home run hitters for the Twins this season, with 19 and 18 homers, respectively. Jeffers also leads the team with 57 RBIs.
As a team, the Twins are 7th in scoring at 4.9 runs per game and have been even better at home, averaging 5.1 runs per contest. Overall, they are 7th in home runs and have the 6th best slugging percentage in the league.
The Padres will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Rockies with a 3-2 loss. This was especially tough, as they held a lead going into the 8th inning before the Rockies scored a run in the bottom of the 8th. San Diego was the -198 favorite on the money line going into the game.
Joe Musgrove got the start for the Padres and took the loss. He only lasted 4 1/3 innings, giving up just one run on three hits. However, he issued two walks and was pulled from the game after throwing 70 pitches. The Padres also wasted a big game from Manny Machado, who homered in the 1st inning, going 1/4.
San Diego will open up their series vs. the Twins three games behind the Dodgers in the NL West. The Padres are 70-55 overall, and they are 20-20 in divisional games. The Padres have won five straight games at home, and they are 33-29 at home this season.
As the favorite, the Padres are 44-33 this year and 26-22 as the underdog. So far, they are 25-14-3 in series this year. Looking back, the Padres dropped two of three games in their series vs. the Rockies. They are still 7-3 across their last ten games.
When the Padres win, they tend to win by a good margin, as their average run differential in victories is +3.7. They have a winning record on the run line at 65-60, but they have been much better on the run line on the road, going 41-22. They have covered the run line in two straight games and have a run line record of 33-15 as the underdog.
San Diego Padres games have gone over the total 60.0% of the time this season, with an average combined run total of 9.0 runs per game. When the O/U line is set at 7.5 runs, the Padres have gone over 19 times and under 21 times. Their games have had an average O/U line of 8 runs per game this season.
Michael King gets the start for the Padres today and has been pitching well lately. In his last outing, he went 6 innings, picking up the win and not giving up a run. Looking back over his last four starts, King has given up a total of three earned runs. So far this season, he has made 23 starts, has a record of 10-6, and his ERA is 3.19. Opponents are batting .218 off King this year. The right-hander has made 11 quality starts and is averaging 10.71 strikeouts per nine innings.
The Padres come into the game as the top hitting team in the league, with a team batting average of .266. They also have the fewest strikeouts in the league and are 1st in on-base percentage. San Diego is averaging 4.8 runs per game this season and have been even better on the road, averaging 5 runs per contest.
Jurickson Profar has been a key power bat for the Padres this season, as he is 1st on the team with 19 homers and has a team-high 73 RBIs. Profar is also near the top of the league in terms of on-base percentage, coming into the game at .389. Over his last six games, David Peralta is hitting .350 with two homers.
Our pick for this Twins vs. Padres matchup is to take the Padres on the money line at -159. We have the final score at 6-5 in favor of the Padres, giving us some wiggle room with the money line.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Michael King is projected to finish with six strikeouts, which has him as the seventh best among today’s starters. As for Zebby Matthews, he is projected to finish with six K’s, which has him ninth.
San Diego Padres vs Minnesota Twins Betting Tips
- Take the Padres on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Twins (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
San Diego Padres Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Yu Darvish | Out | Personal |
| Jay Groome | Out | Suspension |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | Out | Tricep |
| Wandy Peralta | Out | Groin |
| Ha-Seong Kim | Questionable | Shoulder |
| Luis Patiño | Out | Elbow |
| Stephen Kolek | Out | Forearm |
Minnesota Twins Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony DeSclafani | Out | Elbow |
| Carlos Correa | Out | Heel |
| Byron Buxton | Out | Hip |
| Alex Kirilloff | Out | Back |
| Chris Paddack | Out | Forearm |
| Brock Stewart | Out | Undisclosed |
| Justin Topa | Out | Knee |
| Joe Ryan | Out | Teres Major |
| Daniel Duarte | Out | Elbow |
| Kody Funderburk | Out | Oblique |
| Brooks Lee | Out | Bicep |
