San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers Preview
Carlos Rodriguez is starting for the Brewers on Saturday, and he is facing off against Randy Vasquez for the Padres. The Padres are currently on a three-game winning streak, while the Brewers have lost two in a row. The money line odds have the Brewers at -106 compared to the Padres at -114. The over/under line is currently at 9 runs.
First pitch from PETCO Park is set for 7:15 PM ET, and FOX is carrying this one on TV. Milwaukee is in first place in the NL Central, while the Padres are 3rd in the NL West.
Check out BetCoco for San Diego Padres – Milwaukee Brewers odds
San Diego Padres Trends and Key Stats
- Across their last five road games, the Brewers are 2-3. This includes going 2-3 vs. the runline.
- On the opposing side, the Padres have a 1-4 (SU) record, along with a 2-3 record in their last five home contests.
- The Brewers are 7-3 in their last ten games as the favorite and 3-7 as the underdog.
- 6-4 is the record of the Padres as the favorite, while their record as the underdog stands at 3-7.
San Diego cruised to a 9-5 win over the Brewers in the most recent game of this series. The Padres had a huge 5th inning, scoring four of their nine runs. As for the Brewers, they scored their five runs in the 7th. Heading into the game, the Padres were favored at -159 on the money line.
Dylan Cease got the start for the Padres, going just 4 2/3 innings while giving up four runs and striking out 10. He did not factor into the decision, as Stephen Kolek got the win out of the bullpen. Hoby Milner took the loss for Milwaukee out of the bullpen.
Jake Cronenworth and Manny Machado each had four RBIs for the Padres’ offense. Cronenworth, Jackson Merrill, and Donovan Solano each had two hits and two RBIs.
San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction
Milwaukee is on the road today, and they have dropped two straight games. Currently, the Brewers lead the NL Central with a record of 44-32, putting them six games ahead of the Cardinals. So far, they have gone 18-9 against other teams in the NL Central.
The Brewers have an overall record of 15-7-2 in series this year, and they have won four straight series overall. Milwaukee is 22-12 at home this year compared to a mark of 22-20 on the road. As the road favorite, the Brewers are 8-7 this year, and they are 25-14 as the favorite overall.
On the road, the Brewers have a run line record of 24-18, with an average run margin of 0.7 runs per game. They have covered the run line in two straight games as the favorite, but overall they are just 15-24 against the run line when favored. As the underdog, they are 24-13 against the run line.
The Milwaukee Brewers are on the road today against the San Diego Padres. The over/under line for the game is set at 9 runs. The Brewers have an over/under record of 40-33 this season, and their games have averaged 8.8 runs per game. When the over/under line is set at 9 runs, their record is 2-3-2. The over has hit in two straight games for Milwaukee.
Carlos Rodriguez is getting the start for the Brewers today against the Padres. This will be his 3rd start of the season, and he is still looking for his first win. Rodriguez has taken a loss in each of his first two starts, most recently going 4 2/3 innings and giving up 5 runs (4 earned) to the Angels.
William Contreras and Willy Adames have been the Brewers’ top power hitters this season, as Contreras is 3rd on the team with nine homers and Adames leads the team with 13 long balls. Adames is also 8th in the league with 54 RBIs. Contreras comes into the game batting .298, while Adames is hitting .247. Rhys Hoskins has also been a solid power threat for the Brewers, as he has 10 homers but is batting just .222.
Adames and Hoskins have both been swinging the bat well of late, with Adames going 6/21 with two homers over his last six games, and Hoskins is 8/26 in that stretch with a home run. Christian Yelich has a four-game hitting streak coming into the game.
San Diego is right at .500 with an overall record of 40-40, and they are 3rd in the NL West, eight games behind the Dodgers. The Padres have taken the first two games of their series vs. the Brewers and have an overall series record of 13-10-3, including having lost two straight series.
At home, the Padres have won five straight games, and they are 20-21 at home this season. On the road, San Diego is also one game above .500 at 20-19. As the favorite, the Padres are 26-23 this year and 14-17 as the underdog.
San Diego is 41-39 on the run line this season, with a 14-27 mark at home. The Padres are 27-12 vs. the run line on the road, and they are 21-10 as underdogs. Their average run differential is +0.2 runs per game, but they have a negative run differential at home (-0.3 runs per game).
The San Diego Padres have an over/under record of 40-39 this season, and their games have averaged 8.8 runs per game. Today’s over/under line is set at 9 runs, and the Padres have played in just four games with an over/under line of 9 runs this season, going 1-3 in those contests. Their games have had an average over/under line of 8 runs per game this season.
Randy Vásquez gets the start for the Padres today and will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Phillies. In that start, which came on June 17th, he took the loss and gave up six earned runs in 4 1/3 innings of work. Looking back over his last three outings, Vásquez has finished with a no-decision in each one. His ERA for the season is 5.70, along with a record of 1-4. Opposing batters are hitting .332 off Vásquez this season. The right-hander has made two quality starts this year.
Over his last six games, Manny Machado has gone 11/24 (.458) with five runs batted in. He also has a three-game hitting streak coming into today’s game. Jake Cronenworth has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 8/22 in his last five games with two homers and four RBIs. Cronenworth’s 49 RBIs are the best mark on the team and 12th in the league.
As a team, the Padres are 2nd in batting average and are averaging 4.5 runs per game. They are also among the league leaders in home runs and have the 8th best team OPS in the league. So far, they have been a good road hitting team, averaging 4.7 runs per game.
Our prediction for this Brewers vs. Padres matchup is to take the Padres on the money line at -114. We have the Padres winning this one by a score of 6-5. As for the over/under, we would take the over, as we have the game finishing with a combined 11 runs.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Randy Vásquez finishing with six strikeouts compared to Carlos Rodriguez with five. Vásquez is also projected to give up fewer hits than Rodriguez, and we have him going 5 2/3 innings compared to Rodriguez at 5 innings.
San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Tips
- Take the Padres on the moneyline
- The Padres are also our pick on the run line at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
San Diego Padres Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Xander Bogaerts | Out | Shoulder |
| Yu Darvish | Out | Groin |
| Jurickson Profar | Questionable | Undisclosed |
| Joe Musgrove | Out | Elbow |
| Jay Groome | Out | Suspension |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | Questionable | Tricep |
| Luis Campusano | Questionable | Thumb |
| Luis Patiño | Out | Elbow |
| Glenn Otto | Out | Shoulder |
Milwaukee Brewers Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Wade Miley | Out | Elbow |
| Ray Black | Out | Personal |
| Joe Ross | Out | Back |
| Devin Williams | Out | Back |
| Brandon Woodruff | Out | Shoulder |
| J.B. Bukauskas | Out | Shoulder |
| DL Hall | Out | Knee |
| Garrett Mitchell | Out | Finger |
| Robert Gasser | Out | Elbow |
