San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers Preview
First pitch for Friday’s matchup between the Brewers and Padres is set for 9:40 PM ET from PETCO Park in San Diego, CA. The Padres are favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -154, while the Brewers are the slight underdog at +129. The over/under line is currently at 7.5 runs.
Milwaukee will be starting Colin Rea, while the Padres are sending Dylan Cease to the mound. The Brewers are 44-31 this season, while the Padres are 39-40 and have won two straight. This game will be televised on BSWI.
Check out BetCoco for San Diego Padres – Milwaukee Brewers odds
San Diego Padres Trends and Key Stats
- Across their last five road games, the Brewers are 2-3. This includes going 2-3 vs. the runline.
- On the opposing side, the Padres have a 1-4 (SU) record, along with a 2-3 record in their last five home contests.
- In their last ten games as the favorite, the Padres have a record of 5-5 straight-up, and have gone 3-7 against the runline.
- When playing as the underdog, the Brewers have won 4-6 of their previous ten games straight-up, while going 6-4 against the runline.
San Diego picked up a 7-6 win over the Brewers in the most recent game of this series. The Padres had a four-run 1st inning but didn’t score another run until putting up three in the 7th. As for the Brewers, they scored two runs in the 5th and added three more in the 9th.
Fernando Tatis Jr. was the difference for the Padres, as he went 4/5 with a home run and two RBIs. Manny Machado and Jake Cronenworth each drove in two runs for San Diego’s offense.
Adam Mazur only went 4 2/3 innings for the Padres but gave up just three hits and three earned runs. Jeremiah Estrada got the win out of the bullpen, and Mark Melancon got the save. Joel Payamps had a rough outing for the Brewers, taking the loss.
San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction
Milwaukee is leading the NL Central with a record of 44-31, which puts them 6.5 games ahead of the Cardinals. So far, they have gone 18-9 against other teams in the NL Central. The Brewers have been good at home, going 22-12, but they are just above .500 on the road at 22-19.
As the underdog, the Brewers have dropped three straight, and they are 19-17 as the underdog overall. Milwaukee has been good as the favorite, putting together a mark of 25-14 this year. The team’s overall series record is 15-7-2, and they have won four straight series overall and two straight on the road.
The Brewers have been a solid bet on the run line this season, going 39-36 overall. They have been especially good on the run line on the road, where they are 24-17. They have covered the run line in each of their last three road games and have an average run margin of 0.8 runs per game away from home.
The Milwaukee Brewers are on the road today against the San Diego Padres. The over/under line for the game is set at 7.5 runs. Both teams have a combined run average of 8.8 runs per game this season. The Brewers have an over/under record of 39-33 on the year, and their games have averaged a total of 8 runs per game. When the over/under line has been set at 7.5 runs, the Brewers have gone over the total 10 times and under 4 times. Overall, 74.7% of their games this season have had higher over/under lines than 7.5 runs.
Milwaukee starter Colin Rea has been pitching well this season, coming into the game with a record of 6-2 and an ERA of 3.29. He has made 12 starts and five of them have been quality starts. Rea’s most recent outing was on June 16th, where he picked up the win after going six innings and giving up two earned runs. In that outing, he gave up four hits, one walk, and one home run. Rea has won each of his last two outings. Looking at his numbers, Rea has been better at home, with an ERA of 2.78 compared to 3.98 on the road.
For the season, the Brewers are averaging 4.8 runs per game, which is 6th in the league. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.2 runs per game. Overall, they are 6th in team batting average at .252 and have the 3rd best on-base percentage in the MLB. Milwaukee also does a good job of avoiding strikeouts and are 3rd in team walks.
Willy Adames has been the Brewers’ top power threat this season, as his 13 homers are 1st on the team and 11th in the league. Adames also comes into the game on a three-game hitting streak. William Contreras is batting .300 for the season and has 48 RBIs, which is 2nd on the team and 10th in the league. Rhys Hoskins is 2nd on the Brewers with 10 homers but has struggled with a batting average of just .221.
San Diego is 39-40 overall and trails the Dodgers by nine games in the NL West. The Padres have taken the first two games of this series vs. the Brewers and have an NL West division record of 14-15 this year. At home, the Padres are 19-21 this year and 20-19 on the road.
As the home favorite, the Padres have gone 17-15 this year and 25-23 as the favorite overall. San Diego has been the underdog 31 times this year, and they are 14-17 in those games. Looking at their overall record, the Padres are 5-5 over their last 10 games.
San Diego has been a solid run line bet overall this season, going 40-39, but they have been much better on the road, where they are 27-12. They have been a poor bet at home, going just 13-27. They have been a better bet as the underdog, going 21-10, compared to 19-29 as the favorite.
The San Diego Padres are playing at home against the Milwaukee Brewers today, and the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs. The Padres have had a combined run average of 8.7 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 39-39. When the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs, their record is 10-13. Overall, 62.0% of their games have had over/under lines set higher than 7.5 runs.
Dylan Cease will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Mets, as he was tagged with the loss after giving up seven earned runs in just 3 2/3 innings of work. In that start, he gave up three home runs. Before that outing, Cease had been pitching well, as he had allowed three earned runs or fewer in four straight starts. Cease’s ERA for the season is 3.95, along with a record of 6-6. His WHIP for the season is 1.07. Cease has made eight quality starts this year and is averaging 11.01 strikeouts per nine innings.
So far this season, the Padres have been one of the league’s best offensive teams, as they are 2nd in team batting average (.258), and are also among the top 10 teams in home runs, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. Overall, they are averaging 4.4 runs per game, but have been slightly better on the road, averaging 4.7 runs per contest. San Diego’s offense has been pretty balanced this season, as they have four players with at least 10 home runs and the league’s 10th ranked home run hitter in Fernando Tatis Jr.
Jurickson Profar comes into the game as the Padres’ top run producer, as he is 10th in the league with 48 RBIs and is also 3rd on the team with 10 home runs. Profar is also on a five-game hitting streak. Luis Arraez, who is batting .315 for the season, has gone 5/19 in his last six games, with three homers in that stretch. Jake Cronenworth and Fernando Tatis Jr. are also near the top of the Padres’ home run leaderboard.
Our prediction for today’s Brewers vs. Padres game is to take the Padres on the money line at -154. We have the final score at 6-5 in favor of the Padres, giving us a little bit of wiggle room with the over/under line sitting at 7.5 runs.
Looking at today’s starters, we have Dylan Cease finishing with seven strikeouts, which is the fifth-best among all starters. As for Colin Rea, we have him finishing with four strikeouts, which is the third worst among all starters.
Offensively, we have the Brewers finishing with nine hits compared to the Padres with nine. However, the Brewers are projected to finish with more home runs, with the Padres finishing with six.
San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Tips
- Take the Padres on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Brewers (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
San Diego Padres Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Xander Bogaerts | Out | Shoulder |
| Yu Darvish | Out | Groin |
| Joe Musgrove | Out | Elbow |
| Jay Groome | Out | Suspension |
| Luis Patiño | Out | Elbow |
| Glenn Otto | Out | Shoulder |
Milwaukee Brewers Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Wade Miley | Out | Elbow |
| Ray Black | Out | Personal |
| Joe Ross | Out | Back |
| Devin Williams | Out | Back |
| Jakob Junis | Out | Shoulder |
| Brandon Woodruff | Out | Shoulder |
| J.B. Bukauskas | Out | Shoulder |
| DL Hall | Out | Knee |
| Garrett Mitchell | Out | Finger |
| Robert Gasser | Out | Elbow |
