San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins Preview
Yu Darvish and the Padres will look to keep their three-game winning streak alive when they host the Marlins at PETCO Park in San Diego. The money line odds have the Padres at -175, while the Marlins are the +148 underdog. Today’s over/under line is sitting at 7.5 runs.
First pitch for this NL matchup is set for 4:10 PM ET. Braxton Garrett is starting for the Marlins, and he will be looking to help them pull off the upset and improve upon their record of 19-37. The Padres are 30-28 and are currently 3rd in the NL West.
Check out BetCoco for San Diego Padres – Miami Marlins odds
San Diego Padres Trends and Key Stats
- Across their last five road games, the Marlins are 2-3. This includes going 4-1 vs. the runline.
- In the Padres’ five most recent home games, their record stands at 3-2 (SU) with 3-2 against the spread.
- Over their last ten games when playing as the favorite, the Padres have won 5-5 straight-up, and have a 4-6 record vs. the runline.
- Over their previous ten games as the underdog, the Marlins have a straight-up record of 5-5 and a 7-3 record vs. the runline.
San Diego cruised to a 4-0 win over the Marlins in the most recent game of this series. The Padres had a two-run 1st inning and added their final two runs in the 5th. As for the Marlins, they had their best scoring chance in the 6th, but could only muster one run.
Matt Waldron pitched well for the Padres in this one, going seven innings and striking out eight without giving up a run. He picked up a win in the game, while Jesús Luzardo took the loss for Miami. Luzardo went six innings and gave up three earned runs.
At the plate, Jurickson Profar and Donovan Solano each had three hits and an RBI for San Diego. Fernando Tatis Jr. scored a run and drove in a run while going 2/4. Josh Bell was the only Marlins hitter to have more than one hit.
San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins Prediction
Miami is looking to avoid the sweep today, as they are 19-37 overall and trail the Phillies by 19 games in the NL East. So far, they have really struggled against other NL East teams, going 4-12. The Marlins have dropped two straight games, and they are 5-5 over their last 10.
At home, the Marlins are just 10-19 this year, and they are 9-18 on the road. This season, the Marlins are 3-11 as the favorite and 16-26 as the underdog. Miami’s overall series record is 5-11-1, but they have won four straight series.
When the Marlins are the underdog, they are 22-20 against the run line, but when they are the favorite, they are just 1-13. Their average run margin in their wins is +2.9, while their average run margin in their losses is -3.7. They are 14-13 against the run line on the road this season, but are just 9-20 against the run line at home. Their overall run line record is 23-33, and their average run margin for the season is -1.5.
The Miami Marlins are on the road to face the San Diego Padres today, with the over/under line set at 7.5 runs. Miami’s games have averaged 8.7 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 30-26. When the over/under line has been set at 7.5 runs, their record is 8-3, and their games have had an average line of 8 runs. The under has hit in their last six games.
Braxton Garrett will be on the mound for the Marlins as they take on the Padres. Garrett has started 3 games this season, and his last outing was a complete game shutout vs. the Diamondbacks. He has 6 strikeouts in each of his last two starts.
Heading into today’s game, the Marlins are averaging just 3.6 runs per game, which is 29th in the league. They have been even worse on the road, averaging only 3 runs per contest. Miami has been a little better at home, averaging 4.2 runs per game. As a team, the Marlins are batting just .232, which is 17th in the league, and they have the worst on-base percentage in the league.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Josh Bell are the Marlins’ top two home run hitters this season, with Chisholm Jr. leading the team with 27 RBIs. Both players have gone deep eight times this season. Chisholm Jr. has also batted .260 this season, and Josh Bell is batting just .233. Over the team’s last seven games, both Chisholm Jr. and Jake Burger have gone 9/27.
With their three-game winning streak, the Padres are 30-28 overall and trail the Dodgers by 5.5 games for the NL West lead. The Padres are 12-13 against other NL West teams this year. San Diego has taken the first two games of their series vs. the Marlins and have an overall series record of 10-7-2. Their series road winning streak is at four games, and they have dropped two straight series at home.
At home, the Padres are 13-18 this year compared to an impressive 17-10 mark on the road. As the favorite, the Padres are 18-16 and 12-12 as the underdog. San Diego has won three straight home games, and they are 6-4 over their last 10 contests overall.
San Diego has been a profitable team to back on the run line this season, as they are 31-27 overall. They have been especially good on the run line on the road, going 21-6. The Padres have a run differential of +0.2 runs per game, and their average run differential in wins is +3.6 runs per game.
San Diego Padres games have trended towards the under this season, with their games having an average combined run total of 8.5 runs per game. Their over/under record for the season is 29-28, and they have gone under in four straight games. When the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs, their record is 9-10. Overall, 60.3% of their games have had over/under lines set higher than 7.5 runs this season.
Right-hander Yu Darvish gets the start for the Padres today as he faces the Marlins at home. Darvish has made 10 starts this year and has a record of 4-2 with a 3.04 ERA. Looking at his overall numbers, Darvish has a WHIP of .99 and has turned in three quality starts. In his last outing, he took the loss, giving up seven earned runs in 5 2/3 innings of work. Before that, he had won three straight starts. Darvish has been much better at home, coming in with an ERA of 4.11 compared to 1.8 on the road.
Over his last nine games, Luis Arraez has been on fire for the Padres, going 17/39 (.436) with one home run and four RBIs. This has helped him move his season-long batting average to .332, which is 3rd best on the team. Jurickson Profar and Jake Cronenworth are both batting over .320 for the season, and Profar’s 35 RBIs are the best mark on the team and 12th in the league.
Profar and Cronenworth are both in the top 10 in the league in home runs, with 8 and 9, respectively. As a team, the Padres are batting .255, which is the 4th best mark in the league. They are also 3rd in road runs per game at 5.1 and have the 4th best on-base percentage in the league.
Our predicted final score for this game is 5-4 in favor of the Padres, which would have them winning by one run. However, with the money line payout for a Padres win being -175, we recommend taking the over at 7.5 runs, as there is a lot of value there with the payout being +100.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Yu Darvish finishing with six strikeouts compared to Braxton Garrett with five. However, with Darvish’s payout to win being -175, you could also look to pair him with a Padres player to hit a home run, as they are projected to hit the second fewest home runs in the league today.
San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins Betting Tips
- Take the Padres on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Marlins (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over
San Diego Padres Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Xander Bogaerts | Out | Shoulder |
| Luis Patiño | Out | Elbow |
| Glenn Otto | Out | Shoulder |
| Tucupita Marcano | Out | Knee |
Miami Marlins Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Avisaíl García | Out | Hamstring |
| JT Chargois | Out | Neck |
| Sandy Alcantara | Out | Elbow |
| Edward Cabrera | Out | Shoulder |
| Eury Pérez | Out | Elbow |
| Josh Simpson | Out | Elbow |
| Bryan Hoeing | Out | Hamstring |
