San Diego Padres vs Cincinnati Reds Preview
Wednesday’s matchup between the Reds and Padres is set for 4:10 from PETCO Park in San Diego. The Padres are the betting favorite, with a money line payout of -137, and the over/under line is at 8 runs. Cincinnati comes in with a record of 16-14, while the Padres are currently 15-18.
Joe Musgrove is set to start for the Padres, and he is facing off against Graham Ashcraft for the Reds. If you’re looking where to catch this game on TV, it can be seen on BSOH.
Check out BetCoco for San Diego Padres – Cincinnati Reds odds
San Diego Padres Trends and Key Stats
- The Reds are 2-3 across their last five road games. They have gone 4-1 vs. the runline.
- The Padres, on the other hand, have played five home games recently, during which they have recorded a 2-3 (SU) and 2-3 record.
- Over their last ten games when playing as the favorite, the Padres have won 6-4 straight-up, and have a 6-4 record vs. the runline.
- Over their previous ten games as the underdog, the Reds have a straight-up record of 2-8 and a 4-6 record vs. the runline.
San Diego picked up a 6-4 win over the Reds in the most recent game of this series. The Padres had a huge 5th inning, scoring four of their six runs. As for the Reds, they scored two in the 6th and added their final two runs in the 7th. Heading into the game, the Padres were favored at -170 on the money line.
Yu Darvish got the start for the Padres, going just five innings but not giving up a run. He finished the game with three strikeouts but issued five walks. Nick Martinez only went five innings for the Reds, giving up three earned runs on six hits.
Jurickson Profar had a three-hit game for the Padres, while Manny Machado drove in three runs. Jeimer Candelario hit the game’s only home run and drove in three runs for the Reds.
San Diego Padres vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction
Cincinnati will be on the road today vs. the Padres with an overall record of 16-14. The Reds are 2.5 games behind the Brewers for the NL Central lead, and they are 1-2 in divisional games this year. The Reds dropped the final game of their series vs. the Rangers and followed that up by winning the first game of this series vs. the Padres.
As the favorite, the Reds have gone 10-4 this year and 6-10 as the underdog. Cincinnati has an even 7-7 record on the road compared to 9-7 at home. So far, their overall series record is 4-4-1.
When betting on the Reds’ run line, it’s best to do it on the road, where they are 9-5 against the run line. They are 8-8 against the run line at home, but their average run margin is 0.5 runs per game. Their average run margin in winning games is 4.2 runs per game, while their average run margin in losing games is -3.3 runs per game.
When the Reds play, the over/under line is usually set high. In 60% of their games, the line has been set at over 8 runs. Their average combined run total is 9.1 runs per game, and their over/under record is 16-13. Today’s line is set at 8 runs, and their average line for the season is 9 runs per game.
Through his first three starts of the season, Graham Ashcraft has a 2-0 record and has been able to pitch into the 6th inning in each of his starts. He has 21 strikeouts in 16 2/3 innings of work and has only allowed one home run. His last start was on the road against the Rangers, where he went 6 1/3 innings and struck out 7.
Elly De La Cruz has been a key part of the Reds’ offense this season, as he is batting .279 with a team-high eight homers and 19 RBIs. De La Cruz has also been swinging a good bat of late, going 7/29 (.241) over his last eight games, with two homers and four RBIs. Will Benson has also gone deep twice in his last eight games, hitting .273 in that stretch and batting just .214 for the season.
As a team, the Reds are averaging 4.9 runs per game and are among the league leaders in isolated power. So far, they are batting just .220 as a team, which is 21st in the league. Cincinnati’s offense has been pretty consistent, as they are averaging 4.8 runs per game on the road and 5.1 at home.
San Diego will host the Reds today with an overall record of 15-18, and they are 4th in the NL West, 4.5 games behind the Dodgers for the division lead. The Padres closed out April with a win over the Reds but had dropped five straight spanning between their series vs. the Phillies and the first game vs. the Reds.
At home, the Padres are just 7-12 this year compared to an 8-6 mark on the road. So far, they have been an even 10-10 as the favorite and 5-8 as the underdog. The Padres’ overall series record is 4-5-2, and they have dropped two straight series at home.
The Padres have a run line record of 16-17, with a run line record of 5-14 at home. They have an average run margin of -0.1 runs per game, and they have a run line record of 11-3 on the road. Their average run margin in winning games is +3.3 runs per game, while their average run margin in losing games is -3.0 runs per game.
San Diego’s games have averaged 9.6 runs per game this season, and the over/under record for the Padres is 17-15. When the over/under line is set at 8 runs, they have gone 3-4-1 in those games. So far this season, 42.4% of their games have had over/under lines set higher than 8 runs.
Joe Musgrove will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Phillies, as he finished with a record of 3-3 and an ERA of 6.94. In that start vs. the Phillies, he went just 3 2/3 innings, giving up seven earned runs, and taking the loss. Looking back over his last four outings, Musgrove has alternated between wins and losses. His WHIP for the season is 1.66, and he has allowed a total of nine home runs. At home, Musgrove is 2-3 with a 7.58 ERA.
So far this season, the Padres are averaging 4.8 runs per game, which is 11th in the league. They have been even better on the road, putting up 5.2 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting .250, which is 7th in the league, and are also 7th in home runs. San Diego has been patient at the plate, as they are 5th in walks.
Jurickson Profar has been on a tear of late, going 11/26 in his last seven games, with two homers and four RBIs. This has helped him move his season average up to .318, which is 2nd on the team. Jake Cronenworth and Jurickson Profar are also tied for the team lead with four home runs. Cronenworth has driven in 20 runs, which is 9th in the league.
Our prediction for today’s Reds vs. Padres game is to take the Padres on the money line at -137. We actually have the Padres winning this one 6-5, so you could also look to take the over, as the line is currently sitting at 8 runs.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Joe Musgrove has a much better chance of picking up a win than Graham Ashcraft. Musgrove is averaging six strikeouts in today’s game, compared to Ashcraft, who we have finishing with just four.
San Diego Padres vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Tips
- Take the Padres on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Reds (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
San Diego Padres Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Patiño | Out | Elbow |
| Glenn Otto | Out | Shoulder |
| Tucupita Marcano | Out | Knee |
Cincinnati Reds Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Frankie Montas | Out | Forearm |
| Tyler Stephenson | Questionable | Hand |
| Alex Young | Out | Back |
| TJ Friedl | Out | Wrist |
| Ian Gibaut | Out | Forearm |
| Matt McLain | Out | Shoulder |
| Noelvi Marte | Out | Suspension |
| Brandon Williamson | Out | Shoulder |
| Tejay Antone | Out | Elbow |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | Questionable | Hand |
