Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres Preview
Thursday’s matchup between the Padres and Pirates has a first pitch set for 12:35 PM ET from PNC Park in Pittsburgh. The Pirates are the slight money line favorite (-115), while the Padres come in with a line of -104. The over/under line is currently 8.5 runs.
San Diego will be looking to extend their four-game winning streak with Randy Vasquez on the mound, while the Pirates will be sending Luis Ortiz to the mound. This NL matchup can be seen on MLBN.
Check out BetCoco for Pittsburgh Pirates – San Diego Padres odds
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres Trends and Key Stats
- Across their last five road games, the Padres are 4-1. This includes going 3-2 vs. the runline.
- The Pirates, on the other hand, have played five home games recently, during which they have recorded a 3-2 (SU) and 3-2 record.
- Over the last ten games, Padres has a record of 9-1 when playing as favorites and 5-5 when playing as underdogs.
- 8-2 is the record of the Pirates as the favorite, while their record as the underdog stands at 3-7.
It was a wild game in the most recent game of this Padres vs Pirates series. San Diego went into the matchup as -161 favorites and squeaked out a 9-8 win. The Padres had to score three runs in the 9th inning to pick up the win.
Pittsburgh wasted a good outing from Marco Gonzales, as he gave up just two earned runs in 4 2/3 innings of work for the Pirates. Colin Holderman took the loss. Tanner Scott got the win out of the bullpen for the Padres as Michael King went five innings, giving up three earned runs.
Offensively, the Padres were led by Jackson Merrill, who went 4/6 with two homers. He scored three times and drove in three runs. Kyle Higashioka also had a two-hit game for San Diego.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres Prediction
San Diego is on a four-game winning streak, and they are 63-52 overall this season. The Padres are 3rd in the NL West, and they trail the Dodgers by three games for the division lead. So far, they have gone 19-18 in divisional games.
At home, the Padres are 30-29 this season, and they have gone 33-23 on the road. As the favorite, the Padres are 37-30 this season and 26-22 as the underdog. San Diego has won two straight games as the road favorite.
San Diego is 39-17 against the run line on the road, where they have an average scoring margin of +1.2 runs per game. The Padres are 33-15 against the run line as an underdog and 28-39 as a favorite. Their average run differential in wins is +3.8 runs per game, while their average run differential in losses is -3.5 runs per game.
San Diego is on the road today against Pittsburgh, and the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs. The Padres have played in 20 games with higher lines this season, and their combined run average is 8.9 runs per game. Their over/under record is 61-53 on the year, and when the line has been set at 8.5 runs, they are 15-12. Overall, 59.1% of their games have had lower lines than 8.5 runs.
Randy Vásquez gets the start for the Padres today as he faces off against the Pirates on the road. So far this season, he has made 16 starts and has a record of 3-6 with an ERA of 4.62. Vásquez’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.53, and opponents have a batting average of .298 this year. In his 16 starts, Vásquez has turned in four quality starts, and his ERA on the road is 8.4 compared to 3.52 at home. The right-hander most recently faced the Rockies, where he finished with a no-decision, giving up one earned run in five innings of work.
San Diego comes into today’s game with the league’s top batting average at .265 and are also the best in the league at avoiding strikeouts. The Padres’ offense is 11th in the league in runs scored at 4.7 per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 4.9 runs per game.
Jurickson Profar has been the Padres’ top power threat this season, as his 19 homers are the best on the team and 14th best in the league. He also comes into the game with the 13th most RBIs in the league at 71. Over his last seven games, Manny Machado has gone 11/29 with three homers and six RBIs, while Jackson Merrill has also homered three times in this stretch while batting .346.
Pittsburgh will host the Padres with an overall record of 56-57, and they are 3rd in the NL Central, trailing the Brewers by eight games. The Pirates have dropped three straight games, and they are 4-6 across their last 10. So far, they have gone 17-15 in divisional games.
At home, the Pirates are 27-30 this year compared to 29-27 on the road. As the underdog, the Pirates are 32-36 this year, and they have dropped four straight as the underdog overall. Pittsburgh’s overall record as the favorite is 24-21, and they are 13-15 as the home underdog this year.
When it comes to the run line, the Pirates have been a solid bet this season, going 64-49. They have been especially good on the road, going 35-21. They have been a solid bet as an underdog, going 47-21. Their average run margin in winning games is 3.2, while it is -3.4 in losing games.
The Pirates have played 74 games with over/under lines this season, and only 19 of those games have had lines higher than 8.5 runs. Their over/under record is 53-59, and their combined run average is exactly 8.5 runs per game.
Pittsburgh is starting right-hander Luis L. Ortiz today vs. the Padres. He has made six starts this year and has a record of 5-2 with a 3.21 ERA. In his 28 appearances, Ortiz has a batting average allowed of .229, along with 84 innings pitched. Ortiz’s last outing came vs. the Diamondbacks, where he gave up six earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of work. He finished with a no-decision in that outing. Before that, he had won two straight starts without giving up an earned run. Ortiz has given up at least one homer in three straight outings.
So far this season, the Pirates are averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 20th in the league. They have been a little better on the road, averaging 4.4 runs per game, compared to just 4.0 runs per game at home. As a team, they are batting just .233, and their team on-base percentage of .302 is also near the bottom of the league.
Bryan Reynolds comes into the game with a team-high 68 RBIs and is batting .288 for the season. He has also gone deep 19 times, which is 14th in the league. Reynolds has been the Pirates’ most consistent hitter, as he is on a 3-game hitting streak and has gone 9/22 in his last six games, with two homers.
Our prediction for today’s Padres vs. Pirates matchup is to take the Pirates on the money line at -115. We have the Pirates winning this one by a score of 6-5. Offensively, we have the Pirates finishing with nine hits compared to the Padres with seven.
Looking at today’s starters, Luis L. Ortiz is projected to finish with four strikeouts compared to Randy Vásquez with five. Luis L. Ortiz is also projected to finish with a higher ERA than Vásquez.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres Betting Tips
- We like the Pirates on the moneyline (-115)
- The Pirates should also cover at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Pittsburgh Pirates Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Johan Oviedo | Out | Elbow |
| Daulton Jefferies | Out | Elbow |
| Joshua Palacios | Out | Hamstring |
| Ryan Borucki | Out | Triceps |
| Dauri Moreta | Out | Elbow |
| Nick Gonzales | Out | Groin |
| Carmen Mlodzinski | Out | Shoulder |
| Jared Jones | Out | Lat |
| Endy Rodríguez | Out | Elbow |
San Diego Padres Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Yu Darvish | Out | Personal |
| Jurickson Profar | Questionable | Leg |
| Joe Musgrove | Out | Elbow |
| Jay Groome | Out | Suspension |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | Out | Tricep |
| Wandy Peralta | Out | Groin |
| Luis Patiño | Out | Elbow |
| Stephen Kolek | Out | Forearm |
