Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies Preview
There is an NL matchup between the Phillies and Pirates on Friday, with this one getting started at 6:40 PM ET from PNC Park in Pittsburgh. The Phillies are the favorites on the money line (-145), and they are 62-34 overall, putting them 1st in the NL East. The Pirates have won four straight and they are 3rd in the NL Central with an overall record of 48-48.
The over/under line is currently at 8 runs, and SN PT will be televising this one. Aaron Nola is starting for the Phillies, while Martín Pérez goes for the Pirates.
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Pittsburgh Pirates Trends and Key Stats
- The Phillies are 2-3 across their last five road games. They have gone 2-3 vs. the runline.
- On the opposing side, the Pirates have a 4-1 (SU) record, along with a 3-2 record in their last five home contests.
- Over their last ten games, the Phillies have a 6-4 straight-up record when playing as the favorite, along with a 4-6 record vs. the runline.
- When playing as the underdog, the Pirates have a 5-5 record against the runline and a 8-2 straight-up record in their last ten games.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction
The Phillies will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Athletics with an 18-3 loss. Philadelphia was actually the heavy favorite at home but fell behind big early, as the Athletics scored eight times in the 2nd.
Offensively, the Phillies only had three fewer hits than the Athletics but scored just three runs. All of their runs came in the 1st inning. Trea Turner was hot right out of the gates, going 2/2 with a homer and three RBIs.
Philadelphia is 62-34 overall this season, good for a 1st place in the NL East. They currently lead the Braves by 8.5 games for the division lead. The Phillies went 15-10 in their first 25 division games this year.
At home, the Phillies have been great this year, going 37-16. They are just above .500 on the road, coming in with a mark of 25-18. So far, they have been really good in night games, going 42-17. As the favorite, the Phillies have gone 54-26 and 8-8 as the underdog. Their two-game road losing streak has come in their most recent series vs. the Athletics.
When the Phillies are on the road, they are a good bet to cover the run line, as they are 23-20. Their average run margin on the road is +0.6, and they have covered the run line in two straight games. They have been the favorite in 80 games this season, and they are 42-38 against the run line in those games.
The Philadelphia Phillies are on the road today against the Pittsburgh Pirates. The over/under line for the game is set at 8 runs, which is right around their season average of 8.8 runs per game. The Phillies have a 43-48 over/under record this season, and when the line is set at 8 runs, they are 14-11-1. Recently, the over has hit in two straight games for Philadelphia.
Right-hander Aaron Nola gets the start for the Phillies today as he faces the Pirates on the road. Nola has made 19 starts this season and has a record of 11-4 with a 3.38 ERA. In his last outing, he pitched well, going six innings and giving up just one earned run on four hits. He finished with nine strikeouts in that outing. Nola has won three of his last four starts. This year, he has one complete game shutout and 14 quality starts. Per nine innings, Nola is averaging 8.72 strikeouts and just 2.03 walks.
Philadelphia comes into today’s game as one of the league’s top offenses, as they are 3rd in runs per game (5) and are batting a collective .259, which is also 3rd in the MLB. The Phillies have been especially good at home, averaging 5.4 runs per contest. They also have the league’s 6th best home run total and are near the top of the league in on-base percentage, slugging, and OPS. Alec Bohm and Bryce Harper have been two of the team’s top power threats, with Bohm having 11 homers and Harper at 21.
Bohm comes into the game on a five-game hitting streak and is batting .295 for the season. Harper is right behind him with a batting average of .301 and has driven in 61 runs, which is 2nd on the team and 9th in the league. Kyle Schwarber is also a big power threat for the Phillies, as he has 19 homers this season.
The Pirates’s offense was hot right out of the gates in their most recent game vs. the White Sox, closing out their series with a 9-4 win. After allowing one run to the White Sox in the bottom of the first, the Pirates responded with a three-run 3rd inning. Pittsburgh went on to add another four runs in the 4th to put things out of reach. The Pirates were the -166 favorite on the money line going into the game.
Mitch Keller got the start for the Pirates, going three innings and giving up two earned runs on four hits. He only had three strikeouts in the outing and took the win. Pittsburgh’s offense was carried by Bryan Reynolds, who went 2/3 with a homer and three RBIs.
Pittsburgh will host the Phillies today with an even 48-48 record, and they have won four straight games. In the NL Central, they trail the Brewers by 6.5 games, and they are 3rd in the division. The Pirates closed out their series vs. the White Sox with three straight wins.
At home, the Pirates are 22-24 this season and 26-24 on the road. As the underdog, Pittsburgh is 27-29 this year and 21-19 when favored. The Pirates’ overall series record is 13-13-5, and they have won two straight series.
When playing at home, the Pirates have a run line record of 23-23, and their average run margin is -0.4. They have a run line record of 53-43 overall, and their average run margin is -0.1. Their run line record as the underdog is 38-18, and their run line record as the favorite is 15-25. Their average run margin in winning games is 3.4, and their average run margin in losing games is -3.6. They have a run line record of 30-20 on the road, and their road scoring margin is 0.2. They have a run line win streak of 2 games.
Today’s over/under line for the Pirates’ game against the Phillies is set at 8 runs. Pittsburgh’s games have averaged 8.5 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 45-50. When the over/under line has been set at 8 runs, the Pirates have gone 10-12. Overall, 48 of their games have had over/under lines set above 8 runs, accounting for 50.0% of their contests.
Martín Pérez gets the start for the Pirates today and will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Brewers. In that start, which came on July 10th, he took the loss after giving up five earned runs in 4 2/3 innings of work. Looking back at his last three outings, Pérez has finished with a no-decision in two of them. He has a record of 1-5 this season, along with an ERA of 5.16 and WHIP of 1.62. Opposing batters have a batting average of .307 vs. Pérez this season.
For the season, the Pirates are averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 20th in the league. This is a slight improvement compared to their home games, where they are averaging just 4 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting just .231 and have the league’s 16th ranked home run total.
Bryan Reynolds comes into the game as the Pirates’ top hitter, with a batting average of .284 and 18 home runs, which is 11th in the league. Reynolds has been even better of late, batting .321 over his last seven games with two homers. Ke’Bryan Hayes is also swinging a hot bat, going 10/26 in his last seven games. Hayes is currently on a four-game hitting streak.
Our prediction for today’s Phillies vs. Pirates game is to take the Pirates on the money line at +123. We have the Pirates winning this one by a score of 6-5. With the over/under sitting at 8 runs, you could also look to take the over, as we have this one finishing with 11 total runs.
Looking at today’s starters, Martin Perez is a good option to pick up the win. Perez is our third-best option to pick up a win among all starters. As for Aaron Nola, we have him finishing with just five strikeouts, which is the seventh lowest among all starters.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Tips
- We like the Pirates on the moneyline (+123)
- On the run line we like Pirates (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Pittsburgh Pirates Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Johan Oviedo | Out | Elbow |
| Daulton Jefferies | Out | Elbow |
| Bailey Falter | Out | Arm |
| Ryan Borucki | Out | Triceps |
| Dauri Moreta | Out | Elbow |
| Jared Jones | Out | Lat |
| Hunter Stratton | Out | Triceps |
| Endy Rodríguez | Out | Elbow |
Philadelphia Phillies Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| J.T. Realmuto | Out | Knee |
| Zack Wheeler | Questionable | Back |
| Taijuan Walker | Out | Finger |
| Dylan Covey | Out | Shoulder |
| Luis F. Ortiz | Out | Forearm |
| Spencer Turnbull | Out | Lat |
| Michael Rucker | Out | Hand |
| José Rodríguez | Out | Suspension |
