Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets Preview
From PNC Park in Pittsburgh, the Mets and Pirates face off in an NL matchup. This one gets started at 6:40 PM ET, and it is being televised by SNY. The Mets are 3rd in the NL East with an overall record of 42-43, while the Pirates are 4th in the NL Central at 41-45.
The money line odds have the Pirates favored at -126, while the odds for a Mets win are sitting at +107. The over/under line is currently at 7.5 runs, and Luis Severino is starting for the Mets, while the Pirates are going with Paul Sknes.
Check out BetCoco for Pittsburgh Pirates – New York Mets odds
Pittsburgh Pirates Trends and Key Stats
- The Mets are 3-2 across their last five road games. They have gone 3-2 vs. the runline.
- In the Pirates’ five most recent home games, their record stands at 3-2 (SU) with 4-1 against the spread.
- Over their last ten games when playing as the favorite, the Pirates have won 6-4 straight-up, and have a 3-7 record vs. the runline.
- Looking at the Mets’ previous ten games as the underdog they are 8-2 straight-up and 8-2 vs. the runline.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets Prediction
The Mets will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Nationals with a 1-0 loss. New York was actually the slight favorite on the money line going into the game but couldn’t push across a run. The Mets only had one hit and it was a single. Adrian Houser took the loss out of the bullpen. He only pitched 1/3 of an inning but gave up the game’s only run.
Jose Quintana got the start for the Mets, going seven innings, and didn’t give up a run. He only had one strikeout in the outing and got the no-decision. The Mets also wasted a good performance from Francisco Alvarez, who went ‘three innings, and didn’t give up a run. He only threw 39 pitches and issued just one walk.
The Mets are 42-43 overall and trail the Phillies by 14 games in the NL East. New York is on a two-game losing streak heading into today’s road matchup vs. the Pirates. Their losses have come as the underdog in the first two games of this series vs. the Pirates.
At home, the Mets are just 21-25 this season, but they have gone 21-18 on the road. As the underdog, the Mets have put together a mark of 19-20 this year, and they are 13-10 as the road underdog. New York’s overall series record is 13-13-4, and they split their most recent series with the Nationals.
Despite their overall run line record being below .500, the Mets have been a solid bet on the run line on the road this season, going 23-16. They’ve covered the run line in seven straight games as an underdog and are 24-15 overall in that situation. Their average run margin in winning games is +3.5, while it’s -3.1 in losing games.
The New York Mets are on the road today against the Pittsburgh Pirates. The over/under line for the game is set at 7.5 runs, which is lower than their average line of 8 runs per game. The Mets have played 54 games this season with over/under lines higher than 7.5 runs, which accounts for 63.5% of their games. Their games have had an average of 9.6 runs scored per game this season, and their over/under record is 45-37.
Luis Severino gets the start for the Mets today as he faces off against the Pirates on the road. So far this season, he has made 16 starts and has a record of 5-2 with an ERA of 3.42. Opposing batters are hitting .219 off Severino this season, and he has a total of seven quality starts. In his last outing, Severino finished with a no-decision, giving up four earned runs in seven innings of work. Before that, he had not given up more than one earned run in four straight outings. One area of concern for Severino has been the long ball, as he has given up at least one homer in three straight starts.
Heading into today’s game, the Mets are 6th in the league in runs scored at 4.9 runs per contest and are the top-scoring road team in the league, averaging 5.7 runs per game. Overall, they are 4th in the league in home runs and have the 8th best slugging percentage in the league. As a team, the Mets are batting .247, which is 10th in the league.
Francisco Lindor and Mark Vientos have both been swinging the bat well for the Mets, with Lindor hitting .283 over his last 10 games and Vientos also hitting .289 while going deep five times over that stretch. For the season, Lindor is batting .246 with 15 homers, and Pete Alonso is hitting .242 with a team-high 18 homers.
The Pirates will be looking to get back on track after they closed out their series vs. the Cardinals with a 3-2 loss. This was especially tough, as they held a lead going into the 10th inning before the Cardinals scored two runs in the top of the 10th. Pittsburgh was the -108 favorite at home going into the game.
Martin Perez was excellent for the Pirates, going 7 1/3 innings, and didn’t give up a run. However, the Pirates couldn’t close things out, and Dennis Santana took the loss out of the bullpen. The Pirates also wasted a big game from Bryan Reynolds, who homered in the 1st inning, going 1/4.
Pittsburgh is set to host the Mets today with an overall record of 41-45, putting them 4th in the NL Central. The Pirates are 10 games behind the Brewers for the division lead, and they are 13-13 in divisional matchups this year. The Pirates lost two of three games in their series vs. the Cardinals.
At home, the Pirates are 20-22 compared to 21-23 on the road. So far, they have gone 16-19 as the favorite and 25-26 as the underdog. Heading into today’s game, the Pirates have dropped two straight series, and their overall series record is 11-13-4.
When the Pirates win, they win big, with an average run margin of 3.0 runs per game. However, when they lose, they lose by an average of 3.5 runs per game. Their overall run line record is 46-40, and they are 20-22 against the run line at home.
Today’s over/under line of 7.5 runs for the Pittsburgh Pirates’ home game against the New York Mets is the lowest of the season for the Pirates. Their games have averaged 8.4 runs per game, and their over/under record for the season is 40-45. The average over/under line for their games this season is 8 runs, and when the line has been set at 7.5 runs, their over/under record is 5-11. The over/under line has been set at 7.5 runs for 63 of their games this season, which accounts for 73.3% of their games.
Through nine starts, Paul Skenes has a record of 4-0 and an ERA of 2.06 for the Pirates. He has made seven quality starts this year and is coming off an outing in which he gave up just one earned run in six innings of work. In that outing vs. the Braves, he gave up six hits, two walks, and one homer. Skenes has not taken a loss since May 27th. The right-hander has been especially tough on the road, with an ERA of 1.12 compared to 3.29 at home.
Over his last eight games, Rowdy Tellez has been swinging a hot bat for the Pirates, going 9/25 with three homers and seven runs scored. As a team, the Pirates are averaging just four runs per game, which is 24th in the league. Their team batting average of .228 is also one of the worst marks in the league.
Bryan Reynolds has been the Pirates’ top run producer this season, as his 48 RBIs are the best on the team. He also has 14 homers, which is 12th in the league. Reynolds is batting .273 for the season. Oneil Cruz and Andrew McCutchen are also near the top of the Pirates’ home run leaderboard, with 12 homers apiece.
Our predicted score for this Mets vs. Pirates matchup is 5-4 in favor of the Mets. With the Mets being the underdog, we like them to win this one straight up, and you can get them at +107.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Paul Skenes does have a higher strikeout projection than Luis Severino, but Severino has a better chance of picking up a win. Our projections have Severino finishing with six K’s and Skenes with seven.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets Betting Tips
- We like the Mets on the moneyline (+107)
- The Mets are also our pick on the spread at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over
Pittsburgh Pirates Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Johan Oviedo | Out | Elbow |
| Marco Gonzales | Out | Forearm |
| Ryan Borucki | Out | Triceps |
| David Bednar | Out | Oblique |
| Dauri Moreta | Out | Elbow |
| Quinn Priester | Out | Lat |
| Jared Jones | Out | Lat |
| Henry Davis | Out | Head |
| Hunter Stratton | Out | Triceps |
| Endy Rodríguez | Out | Elbow |
New York Mets Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | Out | Knee |
| Brooks Raley | Out | Elbow |
| Harrison Bader | Questionable | Neck |
| Edwin Díaz | Out | Suspension |
| Sean Reid-Foley | Out | Shoulder |
| Drew Smith | Out | Elbow |
| Kodai Senga | Out | Shoulder |
| Shintaro Fujinami | Out | Shoulder |
| Ronny Mauricio | Out | Knee |
| Christopher Larez | Out | Personal |
