Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Preview
Pittsburgh comes into Friday night’s matchup vs. the Cubs looking to move above .500 for the season, as they are currently 17-21. As for the Cubs, they are 22-16, and are sending Javier Assad to the mound. Jared Jones is starting for the Pirates.
First pitch from PNC Park is set for 6:40 PM ET. The over/under line is at 7.5 runs, and the Pirates are the favorite on the money line at -135. Looking at the Cubs, they have a money line payout of +113.
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Pittsburgh Pirates Trends and Key Stats
- 2-3 is the record of Cubs in their last five road games. They have also gone 2-3 vs. the runline.
- On the other side, the Pirates have gone 1-4 (SU) and 1-4 in their previous five home contests.
- As the favorite, the Pirates are 3-7 over their last ten games, including going 2-8 vs. the runline.
- When playing as the underdog, the Cubs have won 6-4 of their previous ten games straight-up, while going 7-3 against the runline.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Prediction
Heading into their last game vs. the Padres, the Cubs closed out the series with a 3-0 loss. Chicago was the +116 underdog at home going into this matchup. Things started off well for the Cubs, as Hayden Wesneski got the start and went six innings, giving up just three runs on seven hits. He only had three strikeouts in the outing and took the loss.
Offensively, the Cubs only had one fewer hit than the Padres but didn’t score a run. Their lone bright spot was a double by Christian Donahue. The Cubs didn’t have another hit after the 2nd inning.
Chicago is on the road today to take on the Pirates, and they are 2nd in the NL Central, trailing the Brewers by just a half-game. The Cubs come into today’s game with an overall record of 22-16, which includes a 2-1 mark in divisional games. At home, the Cubs have gone 13-6 this year.
So far, the Cubs have been just below .500 on the road, coming in with a record of 9-10. As the favorite, Chicago has gone 10-5 this year, and they are 12-11 as the underdog. The Cubs’ overall series record is 6-4-2, and they dropped their most recent series vs. the Padres.
When the Cubs win, they tend to win big, with an average run margin of 3.2 runs in their victories. They are 23-15 against the run line this season, and have been especially good on the run line on the road, going 13-6. They have been a better bet on the run line as an underdog, going 17-6, compared to 6-9 as a favorite.
Chicago’s over/under record this season is 16-21, and the average over/under line in their games is 8.0. Their games have averaged 8.8 runs per game, and their over/under record when the line is set at 7.5 runs is 5-5. The Cubs have played 23 games with over/under lines higher than 7.5 runs, which is 60.5% of their games. Their games have gone under in two straight contests, and the O/U line for today’s game against the Pirates is set at 7.5 runs.
Javier Assad has made seven starts this season and has a record of 3-0 with an ERA of 1.66. He has made two quality starts and is coming off a game in which he didn’t allow a run. In that outing vs. the Brewers, he went six innings and gave up just four hits. Looking at his overall numbers, opponents are batting .203 this season. Per nine innings, Assad is averaging 7.34 strikeouts and 2.84 walks. For the year, he has allowed two homers. Assad’s ERA at home is 0.88, compared to 2.86 on the road.
For the season, the Cubs are averaging 4.6 runs per game, which is 13th in the league. At home, they have been even better, averaging 4.9 runs per game. As a team, they are batting .233, which is 14th in the league, and have the 8th most home runs in the league. Chicago comes into the game with a team on-base percentage of .314, which is 9th in the league.
Christopher Morel has struggled this season, hitting just .211, but he does come into the game with a team-high 8 home runs and 24 RBIs. He has also gone 4/22 in his last seven games with four homers. Michael Busch is 2nd on the team in RBIs and has gone 7/27 in his last seven games. Nico Hoerner has gone 8/29 in his last seven games and is 2nd on the team in batting average (.273).
The Pirates will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Angels with a 5-4 loss. This was especially tough, as they held a lead going into the 7th inning before the Angels scored three runs in the top of the 8th. Pittsburgh was the -136 favorite at home going into the game.
Martin Perez was on the mound for the Pirates, taking the loss. He only lasted five innings, giving up four earned runs on eight hits. The Pirates also wasted a big game from Oneil Cruz, who went 2/4 with three RBIs.
Pittsburgh is 17-21 overall, and they dropped the first two games of their series vs. the Angels but won the finale. The Pirates are 5.5 games behind the Brewers in the NL Central and are 3rd in the division. So far, they are 2-2 in divisional games.
The Pirates have been slightly better on the road this year, going 9-11 compared to 8-10 at home. As the favorite, the Pirates are just 6-11 this year, and they are 11-10 as the underdog. So far, their series record is 4-5-3, and they are coming off losing their series vs. the Angels.
The Pirates have been a solid run line bet overall this season, going 19-19. They have been better on the road, going 11-9, compared to 8-10 at home. They have been a better run line bet as the underdog, going 14-7, compared to 5-12 as the favorite. Their average run margin is -0.6 runs per game, but they have been outscored by 1.1 runs per game at home.
With a combined run average of 7.6, the Pittsburgh Pirates have seen their over/under lines set at an average of 8 runs per game this season. However, the over/under line for their games has been set at 7.5 runs just 11 times this year, and they have gone over the total in just one of those contests. Overall, the Pirates have gone over the total in 16 of their 38 games this season, and the over is currently on a two-game streak for them.
Jared Jones has made seven starts this season and has a record of 2-3 with an ERA of 2.63. So far, he has made four quality starts and is coming off an outing in which he didn’t allow a run. Against the Rockies on May 4th, Jones went seven innings, giving up just one hit and issuing zero walks. He finished with 10 strikeouts in that outing. Jones’ ERA at home is 1.5, compared to 3.61 on the road. Per nine innings, he is averaging just 1.1 walk compared to 11.41 strikeouts.
As a team, the Pirates are averaging just 3.5 runs per game, which is 28th in the league. They have been even worse at home, averaging just 2.9 runs per contest. The Pirates are also near the bottom of the league in home runs and have the worst isolated power figure in the league right now.
Oneil Cruz and Edward Olivares are both on three-game hitting streaks, with Cruz hitting .296 over his last eight games with two homers and seven RBIs. Bryan Reynolds and Cruz are the team’s top home run hitters, with four and five homers, respectively. Reynolds also leads the team with 17 RBIs.
Our prediction for today’s Cubs vs. Pirates game is to take the Cubs on the money line, with the payout being +113. We have the Cubs winning this one by a final score of 5-4.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Jared Jones is projected to finish with five strikeouts, while Javier Assad is predicted to finish with six. However, Jones is 19th among starters in terms of strikeout projections, while Assad is 14th.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Betting Tips
- We like the Cubs on the moneyline (+113)
- The Cubs are also our pick on the spread at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over
Pittsburgh Pirates Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Johan Oviedo | Out | Elbow |
| Marco Gonzales | Out | Forearm |
| Ryan Borucki | Out | Tricep |
| Jason Delay | Out | Knee |
| Dauri Moreta | Out | Elbow |
| Endy Rodríguez | Out | Elbow |
Chicago Cubs Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Drew Smyly | Out | Hip |
| Kyle Hendricks | Out | Back |
| Dansby Swanson | Questionable | Knee |
| Seiya Suzuki | Out | Oblique |
| Julian Merryweather | Out | Back |
| Daniel Palencia | Out | Shoulder |
| Caleb Kilian | Out | Teres Major |
| Jordan Wicks | Out | Forearm |
