Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals Preview
There does appear to be a chance of light rain in Philadelphia on Sunday, but hopefully, it won’t impact the Phillies and Nationals game. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is set for 1:35 PM ET. MASN will be televising this NL East matchup, and the Phillies are the heavy favorites on the money line (-177).
The over/under line is currently at 9.5 runs, and the Phillies will be looking to keep their four-game winning streak alive. They are 73-50 and in first place in the NL East. The Nationals are 55-69 overall and are starting Jake Irvin. Taijuan Walker goes for the Phillies.
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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Trends and Key Stats
- 1-4 is the record of Nationals in their last five road games. They have also gone 2-3 vs. the runline.
- In the Phillies’ five most recent home games, their record stands at 2-3 (SU) with 2-3 against the spread.
- In their last ten games as the favorite, the Phillies have a record of 6-4 straight-up, and have gone 5-5 against the runline.
- Looking at the Nationals’ previous ten games as the underdog they are 4-6 straight-up and 5-5 vs. the runline.
Philadelphia cruised to a 5-1 win over the Nationals in the most recent game of this series. The Phillies had a huge 6th inning, scoring four of their five runs. As for the Nationals, they scored their only run in the 4th. Heading into the game, the Phillies were favored at -234 on the money line.
Cristopher Sanchez started for the Phillies and picked up the win, going nine innings and giving up just one run. He finished the game with four strikeouts and didn’t issue a walk. On the other side, MacKenzie Gore got the start for the Nationals and took the loss, giving up five earned runs in 5 2/3 innings of work.
Nick Castellanos and Weston Wilson each had two hits and an RBI for the Phillies’ offense. Alex Call had a solo home run for the Nationals’ only run.
Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals Prediction
The Nationals are 55-69 overall, and they are looking to snap a four-game losing streak today on the road vs. the Phillies. This losing streak has them 18.5 games behind the Phillies in the NL East, and they trail the Mets by 9.5 games for 3rd place in the division. So far, they are 16-18 in divisional games.
Washington has dropped four straight on the road, and they are 23-34 as the road underdog this season. The Nationals are 10-10 as the favorite and 45-59 when going into a game as the underdog. So far, they have gone 28-32 at home.
Washington is 69-55 against the run line this season, including a 37-27 mark on the road. The Nationals’ average run differential is -0.6 runs per game, and they have been favored in 20 games, going 9-11 against the run line. They have a run line losing streak of one game.
Washington Nationals games have gone over the total in 62 of 119 games this season, but the over is just 7-8 when the O/U line is set at 9.5 runs. The Nats’ games have averaged 9.0 runs per game this season, and their games have had an average O/U line of 9 runs. So far, 103 of their games have had O/U lines set below 9.5 runs, and their games have gone under the total in two straight contests.
Jake Irvin will be looking to build off his last start, where he picked up the win vs. the Orioles. In that outing, he went six innings and gave up just two earned runs. Looking at his overall numbers, Irvin has made 25 starts and has a record of 9-10. His ERA for the season is 3.72, along with a WHIP of 1.13. Opposing batters have hit .234 off Irvin this season. Out of his 25 starts, he has turned in 14 quality starts. Per nine innings, Irvin is averaging 7.57 strikeouts and just 2.11 walks.
Washington’s offense has been one of the worst in the league this season in terms of home runs, and they are also just 19th in the league in runs scored. However, they do come into the game with a collective batting average of .243, which is 11th in the league. The Nationals have done a good job of putting the ball in play this season, as they are 5th in the league in fewest strikeouts.
Over the last five games, James Wood has gone 8/19 for the Nationals, and Keibert Ruiz has gone deep twice in his last four games. Ruiz is also on a four-game hitting streak. Luis Garcia and CJ Abrams come into the game tied for the team lead in RBIs, with 59, and Abrams is also the team’s leader in homers (17).
Philadelphia is currently 73-50 overall and leads the NL East by eight games over the Braves. The Phillies have won four straight games, and they are 19-11 against other teams in the NL East. Their four-game winning streak has come as the favorite, and they are 62-38 when favored this year.
At home, the Phillies are 42-22 this year and 31-28 on the road. Philadelphia has been good as the home favorite, putting up a mark of 41-20 this year. The Phillies’ overall series record is 19-15-6, and they are winning the current series vs. the Nationals 3-0.
Philadelphia has a run line record of 31-33 at home this season, with an average run margin of 1.4 runs per game. They have a run line record of 61-62 overall, with an average run margin of 0.8 runs per game. The Phillies have covered the run line in their last game as the favorite, and their overall run line record as the favorite is 49-51. They have a run line record of 12-11 as the underdog this season.
The Philadelphia Phillies are set to host the Washington Nationals today, with the over/under line set at 9.5 runs. The Phillies have had an average combined run average of 8.9 runs per game this season and have an over/under record of 57-60. The over/under line for their games typically sits at 8 runs, but when the line has been set at 9.5 runs, the under has hit in 7 of 11 games. Overall, the under has hit in 85.4% of their games this season, and they are currently on a two-game under streak.
Taijuan Walker will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Marlins, as he gave up three earned runs in four innings of work. In that outing, he gave up one homer. Walker has taken the loss in each of his last three outings and has a record of 3-4 with a 5.68 ERA. Opponents have hit .279 off Walker this season, and he has made 11 appearances and two of them were quality starts. Walker’s ERA at home is 5.94 compared to 5.57 on the road.
Philadelphia comes into the game with the 6th best scoring offense in the league, averaging 4.9 runs per game. They have been even better at home, putting up 5.3 runs per game. The Phillies have been one of the league’s top home run-hitting teams this season and are also batting a collective .258.
Over his last six games, Alec Bohm has gone 6/22 with a home run and seven RBIs. For the season, he is batting .296 with 13 homers and 85 RBIs. Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper are also among the league leaders in home runs, with Schwarber’s 28 homers leading the team and Harper sitting in 2nd with 26 homers.
We see the best value in this Nationals vs. Phillies matchup being on the money line, as the payout for a Phillies win is -177. However, our prediction is that the Phillies will pick up a 5-4 win, and with the payout not being a great value, we are recommending taking the under at 9.5 runs.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Taijuan Walker finishing with four strikeouts compared to Jake Irvin, who we have finishing with five. However, Irvin has a better chance of picking up a win, as he ranks 10th compared to Walker, who is sixth.
Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals Betting Tips
- Take the Phillies on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Nationals (+1.5)
- Our MLB model projects 9 runs, and we suggest taking the under
Philadelphia Phillies Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Dylan Covey | Out | Shoulder |
| Luis F. Ortiz | Out | Forearm |
| Spencer Turnbull | Out | Lat |
| Austin Hays | Out | Hamstring |
| Ranger Suárez | Out | Back |
| José Rodríguez | Out | Suspension |
Washington Nationals Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Gallo | Out | Hamstring |
| Trevor Williams | Out | Hip Flexor |
| Derek Law | Out | Elbow |
| Mason Thompson | Out | Elbow |
| Josiah Gray | Out | Elbow |
| Cade Cavalli | Out | Elbow |
| Robert Garcia | Out | Personal |
