Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals Prediction & Betting Tips 8/16/2024

Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals Preview

The Phillies are the heavy favorite heading into Friday’s matchup vs. the Nationals, as their money line odds are sitting at -272 compared to the Nationals at +223. This NL East matchup is set for 6:40 PM ET from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. The over/under line is currently at 9 runs.

Washington comes in with a record of 55-67 and they are 4th in the NL East, while the Phillies are 71-50 and have won two straight. Aaron Nola will be on the mound for the Phillies, and he is facing off against Patrick Corbin. MASN will be televising Friday’s game.

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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Trends and Key Stats

• Over the course of their previous five away games, the Nationals have recorded a 1-4 record, with a 2-3 performance on the runline.
• On the other side, the Phillies have gone 2-3 (SU) and 2-3 in their previous five home contests.
• As the favorite, the Phillies are 4-6 over their last ten games, including going 4-6 vs. the runline.
• Looking at the Nationals’ previous ten games as the underdog they are 5-5 straight-up and 5-5 vs. the runline.

Philadelphia cruised to an easy 13-3 win over the Nationals in the most recent game of this series. The Phillies had a huge 4th inning, scoring five of their thirteen runs. As for the Nationals, they scored their only three runs in the 5th. Heading into the game, the Phillies were favored at -271 on the money line.

Zack Wheeler started for the Phillies and picked up the win, going six innings and giving up just one run. He finished the game with six strikeouts but did not issue a walk. Mitchell Parker got the start for the Nationals and took the loss, giving up nine earned runs in just three innings of work.

At the plate, the Phillies were led by Weston Wilson, who went 4/5 with a home run. He scored three times and drove in three runs. Trea Turner did the most damage for the Nationals, going 3/5 with two RBIs.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Washington is 55-67 overall and 16.5 games behind the Phillies in the NL East. The Nationals lost the first game of this series vs. the Phillies and have lost two straight games overall. So far, they are 16-16 in divisional games this year.

At home, the Nationals are 28-32 and 27-35 on the road. As the underdog, Washington is 45-57 this year, and they are an even 10-10 as the favorite. The Nationals’ overall series record is 16-19-3 heading into today’s game.

Washington’s run line record is 68-54 this season, but they have failed to cover in their last two games. They are 36-26 against the run line on the road and 32-28 at home. The Nationals have been the underdog in most of their games this season, going 59-43 against the run line in those contests. Their average scoring margin on the road is -0.5 runs per game.

Washington is on the road today against the Phillies, and the over/under line for the game is set at 9 runs. The Nationals’ games have averaged a combined 9.1 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 62-55. When the over/under line is set at 9 runs, their record is 13-13-3. In 16.4% of their games this season, the over/under line has been set above 9 runs.

Left-hander Patrick Corbin is starting for the Nationals today as he faces the Phillies on the road. This year, he has made 24 starts and has a record of 2-12 with a 5.98 ERA. Corbin’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.56. In his 24 appearances, he has turned in six quality starts and is averaging 6.66 strikeouts per nine innings. Looking back at his last outing, Corbin finished with a no-decision, giving up four earned runs in four innings of work. Before that, he had lost three straight starts.

Washington’s offense is averaging just 4.3 runs per game this season, which is 17th in the league. At home, they have been slightly worse, averaging 4.2 runs per game. The Nationals are also the league’s worst home run hitting team, but they do come in with an average team batting average of .244. One issue for the Nationals is that they have the league’s 6th best strikeout rate, but are just 19th in terms of walks.

Luis Garcia Jr. comes into the game with a team-high 59 RBIs and is batting .290 for the season. CJ Abrams is also tied for the team lead in RBIs and has gone deep a team-high 17 times this season. Over his last four games, Keibert Ruiz has gone 4/17 with two homers.

Heading into today’s matchup vs. the Nationals, the Phillies are 71-50 overall, putting them 1st in the NL East. They currently hold a 7.0 game lead over the Braves for the division lead. The Phillies have taken two straight games overall, and they are 5-5 across their last 10 games.

At home, the Phillies are 40-22 this season compared to a 31-28 mark on the road. The Phillies have been good as the favorite this season, going 60-38, and they are 11-12 as the underdog. So far, they have an overall series record of 19-15-6.

When it comes to betting the run line, the Phillies have been a tough team to figure out. They are just a game over .500 on the run line overall but are slightly better at home, where they are 30-32. They are currently on a two-game run line win streak at home and have been a better run line bet as the underdog this season, going 12-11. The average run margin in their wins is +4.0, while in their losses, it’s -3.7.

The Phillies have been involved in a lot of high-scoring games this season, with their games having an average of 9.0 runs per game. Their over/under record is 57-58, and when the O/U line is set at 9 runs, they have gone 5-11-1. The over has hit in two straight games for Philadelphia, and they have played in just 14% of their games this season with an O/U line set at 9 runs.

Right-hander Aaron Nola is on the mound for the Phillies today as he faces the Nationals at home. Nola has made 24 starts this season and has a record of 11-6 with a 3.60 ERA. Looking at his overall numbers, Nola has a WHIP of 1.15 and has turned in 15 quality starts. Per nine innings, he is averaging 8.43 strikeouts and just 2.26 walks. Nola’s most recent outing didn’t go well, as he took the loss vs. the Diamondbacks, giving up three earned runs in five innings of work. He has lost each of his last two starts.

Philadelphia’s offense has been one of the best in the league this season, as they are 6th in scoring at 4.9 runs per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.4 runs per contest. The Phillies have the 4th best batting average in the league at .257 and are also 7th in home runs.

Over the past six games, Alec Bohm has gone 7/23, and Bryce Harper has gone 8/22. Bohm is hitting .297 for the season and leads the team with 84 RBIs. Harper and Kyle Schwarber are 2nd and 3rd on the team in RBIs and have 26 and 28 homers, respectively.

Our prediction for this Nationals vs. Phillies matchup is to take the Phillies to pick up the win at home. However, with their money line sitting at -272, we would actually recommend taking the over, as we have this game ending with a 6-4 win for the Phillies.

Looking at the starting pitchers, Aaron Nola is projected to finish with five strikeouts, while Patrick Corbin is predicted to finish with five as well. However, Nola is the better option to pick up a win, and he is also projected to finish with a better ERA than Corbin.

Offensively, we actually have the Nationals finishing with more hits than the Phillies, but the Phillies are projected to hit more home runs. If you’re looking for a player prop, we would recommend looking at the over/under for Nola’s strikeout total.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals Betting Tips

• Take the Phillies on the moneyline
• The Phillies should also cover at -1.5
• Projecting a combined 10 runs, we like the over

Philadelphia Phillies Injury Report

Washington Nationals Injury Report