Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Yankees Prediction & Betting Tips 7/31/2024

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Yankees Preview

There does appear to be a chance of rain in Philadelphia on Wednesday, as the forecasted temperature is 75 degrees. The Yankees and Phillies are facing off in an interleague matchup, and first pitch from Citizens Bank Park is set for 12:35 PM ET.

New York is 64-45 and they have won four straight, and they are starting Nestor Cortes. The Phillies are 1st in the NL East with a record of 65-42, but they are on a three-game losing streak. MLBN is carrying this game on TV, and the over/under line is 9.5 runs. Philadelphia is favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -133 compared to the Yankees at +113.

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Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Yankees Trends and Key Stats

• Over the course of their previous five away games, the Yankees have recorded a 4-1 record, with a 4-1 performance on the runline.
• Conversely, the Phillies have achieved a 2-3 (SU) record and 2-3 record in their last five home games.
• As the favorite, the Phillies are 3-7 over their last ten games, including going 3-7 vs. the runline.
• When playing as the underdog, the Yankees have won 6-4 of their previous ten games straight-up, while going 7-3 against the runline.

It was a back-and-forth game in the most recent game of this Yankees vs Phillies series. New York went into the matchup as +124 underdogs and squeaked out a 7-6 win. The Yankees had a huge 7th inning, scoring three runs to tie the game and then adding the game-winning run in the 11th.

Jazz Chisholm Jr. was the difference for the Yankees, as he homered twice, scored five times, and finished with two more RBIs than any other player in the game. Aaron Judge also had a three-hit game for New York.

As for the Phillies, Austin Hays hit the game’s only other home run and went 2/4 with four RBIs. J.T. Realmuto also had three hits and drove in a run.

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Yankees Prediction

The Yankees have won four straight games, and they are 64-45 overall this season, putting them a half-game behind the Orioles for the AL East lead. New York has taken the first two games of this series vs. the Phillies and currently have an overall series record of 19-11-4. This includes having won two straight series on the road.

At home, the Yankees are 27-23 this season and have gone 37-22 on the road. New York has been really good as the underdog this year, going 17-6, and they have won four straight games as the road underdog. So far, the Yankees have been the favorite in 86 games, and they are 47-39 in those games.

When the Yankees are on the road, they have been a solid bet against the run line, going 35-24 on the season. Their average run margin in those games is +1.6 runs per game. They have covered the run line in four straight road games and have been particularly good as the underdog, going 19-4 against the run line.

The New York Yankees are on the road today against the Philadelphia Phillies, and the over/under line is set at 9.5 runs. The combined run average for Yankees games this season is 9.2 runs, and their over/under record is 59-46. The over/under record for games with a line set at 9.5 runs is 7-3, and the over has hit in six straight games for the Yankees.

New York is sending left-hander Nestor Cortes to the mound today vs. the Phillies. He has made 22 starts this season and has a record of 4-9 with an ERA of 4.13. Cortes’ WHIP for the season is currently 1.21, and opponents are batting .252 off him this year. Cortes has turned in nine quality starts this year and is averaging 8.4 strikeouts per nine innings. Looking back at his last outing, Cortes finished with a no-decision vs. the Red Sox, giving up four earned runs in 4 2/3 innings of work. He has given up at least two homers in three straight outings.

Not only do the Yankees lead the league in runs per game at 5.1, but they also have the best on-base percentage in the league and are 2nd in team home runs. So far, they have been a better offensive team on the road, averaging 5.6 runs per game. As a team, the Yankees are batting .251, which is 9th in the league.

Aaron Judge has been on fire of late, going 11/20 in his last five games with four homers and 10 RBIs. This has helped him take over the team lead in batting average at .319, while his 99 RBIs are the best in the league. Juan Soto is also having a big season for the Yankees, as he is 2nd on the team with 27 homers and is batting .309.

With an overall record of 65-42, the Phillies lead the NL East by 7.5 games over the Braves. The Phillies will host the Yankees today, having dropped three straight games, and they are 3-7 across their last 10 games.

So far, the Phillies have gone 15-10 against other teams in the NL East. At home, the Phillies are 38-20 this year compared to 27-22 on the road. As the favorite, the Phillies are 57-34 this year and 8-8 as the underdog. The Phillies have an overall series record of 19-12-5 but have dropped four straight series.

The Phillies are 28-30 against the run line at home this season, and their average run margin in winning games is 3.9. They are 53-54 overall vs. the run line, and their average run margin is 1.0. They have failed to cover the run line in three straight games at home and are 45-46 vs. the run line as the favorite.

Philadelphia Phillies games have been going over the total recently, as they have gone over in two straight games. Their games have averaged 8.8 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 48-54. When the over/under line is set at 9.5, their record is 3-6. Overall, only 5.6% of their games this season have had an over/under line set at 9.5 or higher.

Left-hander Cristopher Sánchez gets the start for the Phillies today as he faces the Yankees at home. He has made 20 starts this season and has a record of 7-6 with a 3.05 ERA. Sánchez’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.26. In his 20 appearances, he has one complete game shutout and 11 quality starts. Looking back at his last outing, Sánchez took the loss, going six innings and giving up three earned runs on eight hits. He has lost each of his last three starts. Sánchez’s ERA at home is 1.89 compared to 5.65 on the road.

Coming into the game, the Phillies are the 7th highest-scoring team in the league, averaging 4.9 runs per game. They have been even better at home, putting up 5.3 runs per game. Overall, they are 6th in home runs and have the league’s top batting average. Philadelphia also does a good job of getting on base, as they have the 4th best walk rate in the league.

Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber have been the Phillies’ top power threats this season, with Harper’s 24 homers leading the team and Schwarber right behind him at 22. Alec Bohm has been a good contact hitter for the Phillies, batting .293 for the season. Schwarber has been especially hot of late, going 7/19 in his last six games with three homers.

Our prediction for today’s Yankees vs. Phillies matchup is to take the Phillies on the money line at -133. We actually have the Yankees finishing with more home runs than the Phillies, but we see the Phillies out hitting the Yankees and also finishing with a win.

Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Christopher Sanchez finishing with five strikeouts compared to Nestor Cortes with six. Sanchez is also predicted to go one inning longer than Cortes, and we have Sanchez finishing with a win in 17th among starters.

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Yankees Betting Tips

• Take the Phillies on the moneyline
• On the run line we like the Yankees (+1.5)
• Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over

Philadelphia Phillies Injury Report

New York Yankees Injury Report