Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Preview
From Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, we have the Mets and Phillies facing off in an NL East matchup. This one gets started at 4:05 PM ET, and SNY will be televising the Mets winning streak of two games.
Both Luis Severino and Kolby Allard will be on the mound on Saturday. The Phillies are favored at -108, while the money line odds have the Mets at -111. The over/under line is currently at 9 runs.
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Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Trends and Key Stats
- 4-1 is the record of Mets in their last five road games. They have also gone 3-2 vs. the runline.
- The Phillies, on the other hand, have played five home games recently, during which they have recorded a 3-2 (SU) and 3-2 record.
- The Mets are 8-2 in their last ten games as the favorite and 6-4 as the underdog.
- In their last ten games, the Phillies have a record of 7-3 as the favorite and 5-5 as the underdog.
New York cruised to an easy 11-3 win over the Phillies in the most recent game of this series. The Mets had a huge 5th inning, scoring six of their eleven runs. As for the Phillies, they scored their only three runs in the 5th. Heading into the game, the Mets were at +134 on the money line.
Jose Quintana pitched well for the Mets in this one, going seven innings and striking out four without giving up a run. He picked up a win in the game, while Aaron Nola had a rough outing for the Phillies, taking the loss.
Harrison Bader and Francisco Alvarez each homered for the Mets, while Pete Alonso went 2/4 with three RBIs. Brandon Nimmo also had a two-hit game and scored three times for New York’s offense.
Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Prediction
The Mets are 2nd in the NL East, seven games behind the Phillies. So far, they have gone 23-17 against other teams in the NL East. New York comes into today’s game at 81-66 overall, and they have won two straight games. Their most recent win came in the first game of this series vs. the Phillies.
At home, the Mets are 40-34 this season, and they have gone 41-32 on the road. New York has won five straight series, and their overall series record is 25-16-7. As the road favorite, the Mets are 20-14 this season, and they are 53-37 as the favorite overall.
When the Mets are on the road, they have a run line record of 41-32, which is a winning percentage of 56.1%. Their average run margin on the road is +0.5 runs per game. They have covered the run line in two straight games and are 34-23 ATS as an underdog this season.
The Mets are on the road today to take on the Phillies, and the over/under line for the game is set at 9 runs. The combined run average for Mets games this season is 9.1, and their over/under record for the season is 73-69. When the over/under line is set at 9 runs, the Mets’ record is 5-10-4. So far this season, the over has hit in 10.9% of their games, as only 16 of their games have had over/under lines set at 9 runs. Their over streak is currently at 2 games.
Luis Severino gets the start for the Mets today as he faces the Phillies on the road. He has made 28 starts this season and has a record of 10-6 with a 3.74 ERA. So far, Severino has turned in one complete game shutout and has 12 quality starts. In his last outing, Severino finished with a no-decision, going 6 2/3 innings and giving up one earned run on five hits. Before that, he had won two straight starts. The right-hander has been much better at home, coming in with a 6-2 record and 3.58 ERA compared to 4-4 with a 4.95 ERA on the road.
Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso have been two of the Mets’ best power hitters this season, as Alonso’s 32 homers are 10th in the league and Lindor’s 31 is 11th. Lindor also leads the team with 86 RBIs, which is 15th in the league. Lindor has been hot of late, as he comes into the game on a three-game hitting streak and has gone 5/14 with two homers over his last four games. Jose Iglesias also comes into the game on a hot streak, going 6/17 over his last five games.
Overall, the Mets are 6th in the league in scoring at 4.8 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting .247, which is 11th in the league, and are 5th in the league in home runs.
Philadelphia is hosting the Mets today with an overall record of 88-59, good for 1st place in the NL East. Currently, they hold a seven-game lead over the Mets for the division lead. The Phillies lead the Mets by seven games overall and have gone 25-18 against other teams in the NL East.
The Phillies have been good at home this year, putting together a record of 50-26. So far, they have gone 38-33 on the road. As the favorite, the Phillies have gone 75-44 this year and 13-15 as the underdog. Philadelphia’s overall series record is 26-15-6, and they have gone 7-3 in their last 10 games.
When the Phillies have won this season, they have done so by an average of 3.9 runs per game, while their losses have come by an average of 3.9 runs per game. Their overall run line record is 71-76, and they have been a better bet on the road than at home, going 37-34 vs. the run line away from Citizens Bank Park. As the favorite, they are 56-63 vs. the run line, while as the underdog, they are 15-13.
The Phillies are hosting the Mets today, and the over/under line is set at 9 runs. This matches their season average run total, as their games have averaged exactly 9 runs per game. The over/under record for the Phillies this season is 69-71, and when the line is set at 9 runs, they have gone 5-13-1. They have played 23 games this season with an over/under line of 9 runs, which accounts for 15.6% of their games.
Kolby Allard will be making his 2nd start of the season for the Phillies, and he has picked up a win in each of his first 2 appearances. He has gone 5 innings in each of his starts, and in his most recent outing, he gave up 2 earned runs on 8 hits.
Heading into today’s game, the Phillies are 4th in the league in runs per game at 4.9. They have been even better at home, averaging 5 runs per contest. Overall, the Phillies are one of the league’s top home run-hitting teams and are batting .258 as a team, which is the 4th best mark in the league. Philadelphia also comes into the game as one of the league’s top on-base percentage teams.
Over his last four games, Kyle Schwarber has gone 4/11 with two homers and two RBIs. This has helped him take over the team lead in home runs (35) and RBIs (95). Schwarber also comes into the game on a 10-game hitting streak. Bryce Harper has also been swinging the bat well of late, going 8/19 in his last five games.
With the Phillies at -108 to pick up the win, this is the bet we recommend making for this Mets vs. Phillies matchup. Offensively, we actually have the Phillies finishing with fewer runs than the Mets, but with the payout being higher, we still like the Phillies to pick up the win.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Luis Severino is projected to finish with six strikeouts, and Kolby Allard is projected to finish with five. However, we have Allard going deeper into the game and finishing with a better chance to pick up the win.
Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Betting Tips
- Take the Phillies on the moneyline
- The Phillies should also cover at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Philadelphia Phillies Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Luis F. Ortiz | Out | Forearm |
| Edmundo Sosa | Out | Back |
| Spencer Turnbull | Out | Lat |
| Austin Hays | Out | Kidney |
| Rodolfo Castro | Out | Thumb |
| Alec Bohm | Out | Hand |
| José Rodríguez | Out | Suspension |
New York Mets Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Brooks Raley | Out | Elbow |
| Francisco Lindor | Questionable | Back |
| Jeff McNeil | Out | Wrist |
| Paul Blackburn | Out | Hand |
| Sean Reid-Foley | Out | Shoulder |
| Drew Smith | Out | Elbow |
| Kodai Senga | Out | Calf |
| Ronny Mauricio | Out | Knee |
| Dedniel Núñez | Out | Forearm |
| Christian Scott | Out | Elbow |
| Christopher Larez | Out | Personal |
