Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers Preview
The over/under line for Wednesday’s Brewers vs. Phillies matchup is at 9 runs, and the Phillies are the heavy favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at -184. The money line odds for a Brewers win are at +152. Aaron Nola is starting for the Phillies, and the Brewers are going with Aaron Ashby.
First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is set for 4:05 PM ET, and NSPPH will be televising this NL matchup. The Phillies are 43-19 and on a two-game winning streak, while the Brewers are 36-25 and have lost two straight.
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Philadelphia Phillies Trends and Key Stats
- The Brewers are 2-3 across their last five road games. They have gone 4-1 vs. the runline.
- On the opposing side, the Phillies have a 2-3 (SU) record, along with a 2-3 record in their last five home contests.
- The Phillies have a straight-up record of 6-4 in their last ten games as the favorite, and a 5-5 record vs. the runline.
- Over their previous ten games as the underdog, the Brewers have a straight-up record of 6-4 and a 8-2 record vs. the runline.
Philadelphia picked up a 2-1 win over the Brewers in the most recent game of this series. The Phillies had a late rally, scoring one run in the 8th and another in the 10th. As for the Brewers, they scored their only run in the 3rd. Heading into the game, the Phillies were favored at -160 on the money line.
Cristopher Sanchez got the start for the Phillies, going six innings and giving up just one run. He finished the game with three strikeouts but issued five walks. Seranthony Dominguez got the win out of the bullpen. Jared Koenig only went 1 1/3 innings for the Brewers, giving up one hit and no runs.
Alec Bohm was the difference for the Phillies, as he homered in the 8th and scored the game-winning run in the 10th. Bohm finished the game with two hits and two RBIs. Blake Perkins also had a two-hit game for Milwaukee.
Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction
Milwaukee is on the road today for the final game of their series vs. the Phillies. So far, they have dropped the first two games of the series, and they are 36-25 overall, leading the NL Central by six games over the Cubs. The Brewers have an overall division record of 16-8 this season.
At home, the Brewers are 18-10 this year, and they have gone 18-15 on the road. As the road underdog, the Brewers have put together a record of 13-9 this season. Their overall series record is 11-6-2, and they have won three straight series.
When the Brewers are on the road, they have been a good bet against the run line, going 20-13 so far this season. Their average run margin in those games is +0.9 runs per game. They have covered the run line in nine of their last 11 games as the underdog.
The Milwaukee Brewers are on the road today against the Philadelphia Phillies. The over/under line for the game is set at 9 runs, which is the same as the combined run average for both teams this season. The Brewers have played to the over in 34 of their 60 games this season, and the average over/under line for their games is 8 runs. When the over/under line has been set at 9 runs this season, the Brewers have gone 2-2. The over/under line has been set at 9 runs for just 6.6% of their games this season, and their under streak is currently at 2 games.
Getting the start for the Brewers today is Aaron Ashby, who will be on the road against the Phillies. Ashby’s first start of the season came against the Reds, and he took the loss after giving up 4 runs in 3 2/3 innings of work.
Christian Yelich and Willy Adames have been swinging the bat well of late for the Brewers, with Yelich hitting .314 over his last nine games and Adames not far behind at .303. Adames also has two homers during this stretch and 10 RBIs. Rhys Hoskins comes into the game with a team-high 10 homers but is batting just .243 for the season.
As a team, the Brewers are 4th in scoring at 5 runs per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.6 runs per contest. Overall, the Brewers are the league’s top hitting team, with a team batting average of .256. Not only are they a good power hitting team, but they also have the league’s best BABIP.
With an overall record of 43-19, the Phillies lead the NL East by seven games over the Braves. The Phillies have taken the first two games of this series vs. the Brewers and have an NL-best 12-4-4 series record. In the division, they are 11-5 this season.
At home, the Phillies are 26-9 this season and have gone 17-10 on the road. The Phillies have been really good in night games this season, going 27-10. As the favorite, the Phillies are 38-15 and 5-4 as the underdog. They have also been tough to beat at home when favored, going 25-7 this year.
When it comes to the run line, the Phillies have been a solid bet this season, going 34-28 overall. They have been especially good at home, where they are 19-16 against the run line. Their average run margin in winning games is 3.7, while their average run margin in losing games is -3.1.
The Phillies are playing host to the Brewers today, and the over/under line for the game is set at 9 runs. Philadelphia has seen an average of 8.6 runs per game in their contests this season, and their over/under record is 27-31. The average over/under line in their games is 8 runs, and when the line has been set at 9 runs, they have gone 1-3-1. Only 8.1% of their games have had over/under lines set at 9 runs, and their current under streak is at 3 games.
Right-hander Aaron Nola gets the start for the Phillies today as he faces off against the Brewers at home. Nola has made 12 starts this year and has a record of 7-2 with a 3.03 ERA. Looking at his overall numbers, Nola has a WHIP of 1.03 and has turned in eight quality starts. Per nine innings, he is averaging 8.26 strikeouts compared to just 2.56 walks. Nola has been particularly tough at home, coming in with a record of 3-2 and an ERA of 4.60. On the road, he is 4-0 with a 1.88 ERA.
Philadelphia’s offense has been one of the best in the league this season, averaging 5.1 runs per game, which is the 2nd best mark in the league. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.5 runs per game. As a team, the Phillies are batting .255, which is the 3rd best mark in the league, and they are also near the top of the league in both on-base percentage and slugging.
Alec Bohm and Bryce Harper have been the Phillies’ top power threats this season, with Bohm’s 6 homers ranking 4th on the team and Harper’s 14 homers being the best mark on the team and 6th best in the league. Bohm has gone just 5/26 in his last six games, while Harper has gone 7/24 during that stretch.
With the Brewers having a money line payout of +152, we see this as a great opportunity to take them to pick up a win over the Phillies. If you’re looking for a final score prediction, we have the Brewers taking this one 6-5.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Aaron Ashby is projected to finish with five strikeouts, which is better than Aaron Nola, who we have finishing with six. However, Nola is predicted to finish with a better ERA than Ashby.
Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Tips
- We like the Brewers on the moneyline (+152)
- The Brewers are also our pick on the spread at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Philadelphia Phillies Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Trea Turner | Out | Hamstring |
| Dylan Covey | Out | Shoulder |
| Luis F. Ortiz | Out | Ankle |
| Brandon Marsh | Out | Hamstring |
| Ranger Suárez | Questionable | Hand |
| Kody Clemens | Out | Back |
| Yunior Marte | Out | Shoulder |
| Michael Rucker | Out | Hand |
| José Rodríguez | Out | Suspension |
Milwaukee Brewers Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Wade Miley | Out | Elbow |
| Ray Black | Out | Personal |
| Joe Ross | Out | Back |
| Devin Williams | Out | Back |
| Jakob Junis | Out | Shoulder |
| Brandon Woodruff | Out | Shoulder |
| J.B. Bukauskas | Out | Shoulder |
| DL Hall | Out | Knee |
| Garrett Mitchell | Out | Finger |
| Robert Gasser | Questionable | Elbow |
| Oliver Dunn | Probable | Undisclosed |
