Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers Preview
At 6:40 PM ET, the Brewers and Phillies will face off in an NL matchup. This one is taking place at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia and has the Phillies as heavy favorites on the money line, with their odds sitting at -219. The money line odds for the Brewers are at +180, and they are 36-23 overall, which has them 1st in the NL Central. The Phillies lead the NL East with a record of 41-19.
The over/under line for Monday’s matchup is at 8.5 runs, and the forecast in Philadelphia calls for scattered clouds and temperatures in the mid-80s. Zack Wheeler is starting for the Phillies, while the Brewers are going with Bryse Wilson. This will be Wilson’s first start for the Brewers after being acquired from the Braves.
Check out BetCoco for Philadelphia Phillies – Milwaukee Brewers odds
Philadelphia Phillies Trends and Key Stats
- The Brewers are 3-2 across their last five road games. They have gone 4-1 vs. the runline.
- The Phillies, on the other hand, have played five home games recently, during which they have recorded a 2-3 (SU) and 2-3 record.
- The Phillies have a straight-up record of 6-4 in their last ten games as the favorite, and a 6-4 record vs. the runline.
- Over their previous ten games as the underdog, the Brewers have a straight-up record of 7-3 and a 9-1 record vs. the runline.
Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction
The Brewers’s offense was hot right out of the gates in their most recent game vs. the White Sox, closing out their series with a 6-3 win. After allowing two runs to the White Sox in the top of the first, the Brewers responded with four runs of their own. Milwaukee went on to add another two runs in the 2nd inning.
Starting for the Brewers was Freddy Peralta, who picked up the win. He went five innings, giving up three earned runs, and issued just one walk. The Brewers’s bullpen was excellent, as they didn’t give up a run over the final four innings. Enoli Paredes picked up the save, and Jackson Chourio went 2/4 with a homer and three RBIs.
Milwaukee is on a five-game winning streak, and they lead the NL Central with a record of 36-23. The Brewers hold a seven-game lead over the Cardinals for the division lead. This season, they have gone 16-8 in divisional matchups.
The Brewers have been playing well across the board, as they are 18-10 at home and 18-13 on the road. As the road underdog, Milwaukee has put together a record of 13-7 this year. They have also been good as the underdog overall, going 18-11 compared to 18-12 as the favorite. Milwaukee’s overall series record is 11-6-2, and they have won three straight series.
When betting the run line, the Brewers have been a solid play on the road this season, going 19-12. They have covered the run line in three straight road games and are 21-8 against the run line as an underdog this season. Their average run margin in winning games is +3.6, while their average run margin in losing games is -2.9.
When the Milwaukee Brewers are on the road, the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, and their games have averaged 9.2 runs per game this season. Overall, the over/under record for the Brewers is 34-24, and when the line is set at 8.5 runs, they have gone over the total 17 times and under 10 times. Only 11.9% of their games have had higher over/under lines than 8.5 runs this season.
Right-hander Bryse Wilson is getting the start for the Brewers today as he faces the Phillies on the road. Wilson has made seven starts this season and has a record of 3-1 with an ERA of 3.19. Looking back at his last outing, Wilson finished with a no-decision against the Cubs, giving up three earned runs in four innings of work. He has finished with a no-decision in each of his last three outings. Wilson’s ERA on the road is 8.55 compared to 3.59 at home. So far, he has made two quality starts this year.
As a team, the Brewers are batting .259, which is the 2nd best mark in the league, and they are also one of the top home run hitting teams in the league. Overall, they are averaging 5.2 runs per game, and their on-base percentage of .335 is the best in the league. The Brewers also do a good job of avoiding strikeouts, as they are currently 21st in the league in strikeouts per game.
Willy Adames is currently on a nice stretch for the Brewers, as he is hitting .368 over his last 10 games and has two homers during that stretch. For the season, he is batting .260 with a team-high nine homers. William Contreras and Rhys Hoskins are also near the top of the team’s home run leaderboard, with eight and nine homers, respectively.
Philadelphia is coming off a game in which they wasted several good performances. In their 5-4 loss to the Cardinals, Taijuan Walker was excellent on the mound, allowing just two runs while pitching five innings. They also got a big offensive performance from Bryson Stott, going 1/4 with two RBIs.
Gregory Soto took the loss out of the bullpen for the Phillies, as Philadelphia allowed a run in the top of the 10th to blow their lead. Heading into this game, the Phillies were favored at -139 at home.
With a record of 41-19, the Phillies lead the NL East by 6.5 games over the Braves. So far, they have gone 11-5 in divisional matchups. The Phillies are coming off a series win, taking two of three from the Cardinals.
At home, the Phillies have gone 24-9 this season, and they are 17-10 on the road. This season, the Phillies have been really good in night games, going 26-9. As the favorite, the Phillies are 36-15 this season, and they are 5-4 as the underdog. So far, their overall series record is 12-4-4.
When the Phillies are at home, they have a run line record of 18-15, which is slightly better than their overall run line record of 33-27. Their average run margin at home is 1.9, which is slightly better than their overall average run margin of 1.6.
The Phillies have been involved in high-scoring games this season, with their combined run average sitting at 8.8 runs per game. Their over/under record for the season is 27-29, and their games have averaged eight runs per game. When the over/under line has been set at 8.5 runs, the Phillies have gone 4-7 in those contests. Today’s over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, and the Phillies have played in nine games this season with a higher line than that, accounting for 15% of their games.
Right-hander Zack Wheeler is getting the start for the Phillies today as he faces the Brewers at home. Wheeler has made 12 starts this year and has a record of 6-3 with a 2.32 ERA. So far, he has turned in nine quality starts and is coming off an outing in which he didn’t allow a run. Against the Giants, Wheeler went six innings, giving up just two hits and two walks while striking out nine. He finished with a no-decision in that outing. Wheeler has been much better at home, coming in with a 1.96 ERA compared to 3.83 on the road.
Philadelphia has been the best offensive team in the league so far this season, averaging 5.2 runs per game. They have been even better at home, putting up an average of 5.7 runs per contest. The Phillies are also near the top of the league in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage.
Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber have been the team’s top power threats this season, with Harper’s 14 homers leading the team and Schwarber’s 11 homers coming in as the 2nd most on the team. Schwarber has gone 10/29 in his last eight games, with two homers and five RBIs, while Harper has two homers in this stretch but is batting just .219.
Our prediction for the Brewers vs. Phillies matchup is to take the over, with the line sitting at 8.5 runs. Our predicted final score is 6-5 in favor of the Phillies, giving us some wiggle room if you want to take the money line.
If you are looking for a money line prediction, the payout for a Phillies win is -219. Looking at the starting pitchers, our projections have Zack Wheeler finishing with five strikeouts, compared to Bryse Wilson with just five.
Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Tips
- Take the Phillies on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Brewers (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Philadelphia Phillies Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Trea Turner | Out | Hamstring |
| Dylan Covey | Out | Shoulder |
| Luis F. Ortiz | Out | Ankle |
| Brandon Marsh | Questionable | Leg |
| Ranger Suárez | Questionable | Hand |
| Kody Clemens | Questionable | Back |
| Yunior Marte | Out | Shoulder |
| Michael Rucker | Out | Hand |
Milwaukee Brewers Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Wade Miley | Out | Elbow |
| Ray Black | Out | Personal |
| Joe Ross | Out | Back |
| Devin Williams | Out | Back |
| Jakob Junis | Out | Shoulder |
| Brandon Woodruff | Out | Shoulder |
| J.B. Bukauskas | Out | Shoulder |
| DL Hall | Out | Knee |
| Garrett Mitchell | Out | Finger |
| Trevor Megill | Probable | Arm |
| Andruw Monasterio | Questionable | Undisclosed |
| Oliver Dunn | Questionable | Undisclosed |
