Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Prediction & Betting Tips 8/13/2024

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Preview

From Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, we have the Marlins and Phillies facing off in an NL East matchup. The Phillies are favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -180, while the Marlins are at +151. The over/under line is at 9 runs.

First pitch for this one is set for 6:40 PM ET, and BSFL will be televising the game. Taijuan Walker is starting for the Phillies, and he will be facing off against a Marlins club that is 44-75. Miami is starting Valente Bellozo, and the Phillies are 69-49, putting them first in the NL East.

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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins Trends and Key Stats

• Over the course of their previous five away games, the Marlins have recorded a 3-2 record, with a 3-2 performance on the runline.
• On the other side, the Phillies have gone 2-3 (SU) and 2-3 in their previous five home contests.
• Over their last ten games as the favorite, the Phillies have a straight-up record of 2-8, while going 2-8 against the runline.
• Looking back at their last ten games as the underdog, the Marlins have a 4-6 straight-up record and a 5-5 record vs. the runline.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Prediction

The Marlins pulled off a big upset in their most recent game, closing out their series vs. the Padres with a 7-6 win. Miami was the +173 underdog at home going into this matchup. Things started off well for the Marlins, as they got on the board with two runs in the 1st inning and added another three runs in the 2nd.

San Diego’s offense scored six runs on 10 hits but couldn’t pick up the win. The Padres were the -200 favorite on the money line going into the game.

Miami will be on the road for today’s game vs. the Phillies, and they are 44-75 overall, putting them 5th in the NL East. Currently, they trail the Phillies by 25.5 games and are 4th in the NL East with an 11-23 record.

At home, the Marlins are just 24-39 this year, and they are 20-36 on the road. As the underdog, Miami is 40-62 this year, but they are just 4-13 when favored. The Marlins have won two straight games on the road, and their overall series record is 10-23-4. They dropped two straight series at home but did take the series before that vs. the Yankees.

When betting the run line on the Miami Marlins, it’s best to take them as the underdog. Their run line record as the favorite is just 2-15, while as the underdog, they are 54-48. Their average run margin is -1.4 runs per game, and their scoring margin is -1.1 runs per game on the road and -1.6 runs per game at home.

The Miami Marlins are on the road today against the Philadelphia Phillies. The over/under line is set at 9 runs. The combined run average for Marlins games this season is 8.7 runs. Miami has a 66-50 over/under record this season. The average over/under line for Marlins games is 8 runs. When the over/under line is set at 9 runs, the Marlins have a 3-11 record. This is the fifth time this season that the over/under line has been set at 9 runs for a Marlins game. So far, 84% of Marlins games have had over/under lines set below 9 runs. The over has hit in Miami’s last two games.

Valente Bellozo is making his 4th start of the season for the Marlins, and he will be on the road against the Phillies. Bellozo has a win and a no-decision in his last two starts, and he is coming off a 5 2/3 inning outing in which he struck out 4 and gave up 5 hits. He has not allowed a home run in either of his last two starts.

Over his last six games, Jake Burger has been on fire for the Marlins, going 10/24 with five homers and six RBIs. His 22 homers this season are 11th in the league and leads the Marlins. Burger also comes into the game with a five-game hitting streak. As a team, the Marlins are just 29th in runs scored and are also near the bottom of the league in home runs.

For the season, the Marlins are batting just .237, which is 18th in the league, and they are also 29th in on-base percentage. As a team, they are averaging only 3.7 runs per game. Miami’s offense has been a bit better at home, averaging 4.1 runs per game.

The Phillies will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Diamondbacks with a 12-5 loss. Philadelphia was actually the slight favorite on the money line going into the game but fell behind big early, as the Diamondbacks scored four times in the third.

Cristopher Sanchez got the start for the Phillies and took the loss. He only lasted 4 2/3 innings, giving up seven earned runs on 12 hits. Nick Castellanos was one of the few bright spots for the Phillies, as he went 2/4 with a double, two RBIs, and a run scored. The Phillies also scored three times in the 7th to make things interesting but couldn’t complete the comeback.

Philadelphia is hosting the Marlins today with an overall record of 69-49, which has them leading the NL East by seven games over the Braves. The Phillies have dropped three straight games, and this came after losing three of four in their series vs. the Diamondbacks. So far, they are 15-10 in divisional games.

At home, the Phillies are 38-21 this season and have gone 31-28 on the road. As the favorite, the Phillies are 58-37 this season and 11-12 as the underdog. Looking at their overall series record, the Phillies are 20-15-4 but have dropped three straight series at home.

The Phillies have a run line record of 28-31 at home this season, with an average run margin of 1.3 runs per game. They have gone 46-49 against the run line as the favorite, and 12-11 as the underdog. Their average run margin in winning games is 3.9 runs per game, while it is -3.7 runs per game in losses.

The Phillies have a combined run average of 8.9 runs per game, and their over/under record for the season is 55-57. When the over/under line is set at 9 runs, their record is 5-10-1. The over has hit in two straight games, and the percentage of their games with over/under lines set at 9 runs is 14.4%.

Taijuan Walker will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Diamondbacks, as he gave up four earned runs in four innings of work. In that outing, he gave up three home runs. Walker took the loss in that start. Before that outing, he had gone 5 2/3 innings in three straight starts. Walker has a record of 3-3 this season and an ERA of 5.60. Opponents are batting .282 off the right-hander this season. Walker’s WHIP for the season is 1.49.

Heading into today’s game, the Phillies are 7th in the league in scoring, averaging 4.8 runs per contest. They have been even better at home, putting up 5.3 runs per game. Overall, they are one of the league’s top home run-hitting teams and are batting a collective .255, which is 6th in the MLB right now.

Over his last 10 games, Kyle Schwarber has been on fire, going 14/39 with five homers and 11 RBIs. For the season, he is batting .257 with 27 homers, which is 7th best in the league. Schwarber’s 74 RBIs is 2nd on the team, as Alec Bohm leads the Phillies with 80 RBIs and is also batting .297.

Our prediction for this Marlins vs. Phillies matchup is to take the Phillies to get the win at home. However, with the money line payout for the Phillies being -180, we actually like the over, with the line being set at 9 runs.

Looking at the starting pitchers, our projections have Valente Bellozo picking up six strikeouts compared to Taijuan Walker with five. If you’re looking to take a starting pitcher to pick up a win, Walker has the better odds, but we still like the Phillies to get the win.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Betting Tips

• Take the Phillies on the moneyline
• On the run line we like the Marlins (+1.5)
• Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over

Philadelphia Phillies Injury Report

Miami Marlins Injury Report