Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Preview
At 1:35 PM ET, the Marlins and Phillies face off in an NL East matchup. This one is being played at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, and the Phillies are the heavy favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at -250. The money line odds for a Marlins win are currently at +206, and their overall record is 30-53. The Phillies are 54-29 and have won four of their last five.
BSFL will be televising Sunday’s matchup, and the over/under line is at 8.5 runs. Yonny Chirinos will be going for the Marlins, and he will be facing off against Ranger Suarez for the Phillies.
Check out BetCoco for Philadelphia Phillies – Miami Marlins odds
Philadelphia Phillies Trends and Key Stats
- The Marlins are 3-2 across their last five road games. They have gone 3-2 vs. the runline.
- On the other side, the Phillies have gone 2-3 (SU) and 2-3 in their previous five home contests.
- In their last ten games as the favorite, the Phillies have a record of 5-5 straight-up, and have gone 5-5 against the runline.
- The Marlins have a 6-4 straight-up record and a 6-4 record vs. the runline over their previous ten games as the underdog.
Miami rallied for two runs in the 7th inning in the most recent game of this Marlins vs. Phillies series. The Marlins scored one run in the 1st inning but didn’t score another run until putting up two in the top of the 7th, picking up a 3-2 win. Heading into the game, the Marlins were at +213 on the money line.
Philadelphia wasted a good outing from Aaron Nola, as he gave up just three earned runs in 6 2/3 innings of work. Nola took the loss in the game. Andrew Nardi got the win out of the bullpen for the Marlins as Roddery Muñoz went just 4 2/3 innings, giving up two earned runs.
Nick Gordon and Otto Lopez each had two hits and an RBI for the Marlins. Garrett Stubbs hit the game’s only home run for the Phillies, going 1/2 with three RBIs.
Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Prediction
Miami is 30-53 overall this season, and they are 24.0 games behind the Phillies in the NL East. So far, they have gone just 7-18 in divisional games. The Marlins are on the road today, where they are 14-26 this year.
So far, Miami has really struggled at home, going 16-27. As the road underdog, the Marlins have gone 14-26 this year. Miami has really struggled as the favorite this year, going just 3-12. They have been playing better of late, going 6-4 over their last ten games.
When the Marlins win, they do so by an average of 2.7 runs per game, but in losses, they lose by an average of 3.9 runs per game. Miami is 36-47 against the run line overall, but they are 20-20 against the run line on the road. As the favorite, they are just 1-14 against the run line, while as the underdog, they are 35-33.
The Marlins are on the road in Philadelphia today, where the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs. Miami’s games have averaged 8.4 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 42-40. When the over/under line has been set at 8.5 runs, their record is 15-14. The under has hit in two straight games for the Marlins.
Yonny Chirinos will be on the mound for the Marlins as they take on the Phillies. This will be his 3rd start of the season, and he has gone 5 innings in each of his first 2 outings. He took a no-decision in his last start, giving up 2 earned runs and striking out 6 against the Cardinals.
As a team, the Marlins are averaging just 3.5 runs per game, which is the 29th ranked scoring offense in the league. They have been even worse on the road, averaging only 2.9 runs per contest. Miami’s offense has the worst team slugging percentage in the MLB and are also last in OPS. Their team ISO of .118 is also the worst in the league.
Bryan De La Cruz has been the Marlins’ top power threat this season, as his 14 homers are 12th in the league. He is also leading the team with 39 RBIs. However, he is batting just .239 for the year. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is batting .260 for the season and is 2nd on the team with 10 homers.
Philadelphia is hosting the Marlins today with an overall record of 54-29, which has them leading the NL East by seven games over the Braves. So far, they have gone 13-8 in divisional matchups. The Phillies have been tough to beat at home, going 32-14 this season.
The Phillies have dropped two of the first three games of this series vs. the Marlins. Overall, they are 17-7-4 in series this year, and they have won three straight series. As the favorite, the Phillies have gone 48-23 and 31-12 as the favorite at home. Philadelphia has been really good in night games, going 36-15 this year.
When the Phillies win, they tend to do so by a comfortable margin, as their average run differential in victories is 3.9 runs. That has helped them to a 44-39 run line record overall this season. They have been even better at home, where they have a 24-22 run line record, compared to 20-17 on the road. As the favorite, they are 38-33 against the run line, while they are 6-6 as the underdog.
Philadelphia’s over/under record is 35-43, and the average over/under line for their games this season is 8 runs. When the over/under line has been set at 8.5 runs, they have gone 6-10, and the combined run average in those games has been 8.5 runs. Their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs in 18 of their 78 games this season, which is 21.7% of their games. Their current under streak is at 2 games.
Ranger Suárez gets the start for the Phillies today as he faces the Marlins at home. So far this season, he has made 16 starts and has a record of 10-2 with an ERA of 1.83. Suárez’s WHIP for the season is .92, and he has one complete game shutout. In his last outing, Suárez took the loss, giving up two earned runs in six innings of work. Before that, he had gone three straight outings without giving up an earned run. Suárez has made 11 quality starts this season and is currently ranked first in the league in starter wins.
Philadelphia comes into today’s game as one of the league’s top offenses, as they are 5th in runs per game and are the top-scoring team in the league when playing at home. Overall, they are batting .258, which is the 3rd best mark in the league. The Phillies have also been very good in terms of getting on base, as their team OBP of .331 is the 2nd best in the league.
Heading into today’s game, Bryce Harper is on a 12-game hitting streak and is the team’s leader in home runs (20) and RBIs (58). Harper is batting .303 for the season. Alec Bohm and Kyle Schwarber are also having good seasons at the plate, with Bohm batting .298 and Schwarber at .250.
Our prediction for the Phillies vs. Marlins matchup is to take the Phillies to win at home. However, with the money line payout sitting at -250, we recommend taking the over, with the line being set at 8.5 runs. Our predicted final score is 5-4 in favor of the Phillies.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Yonny Chirinos finishing with five strikeouts compared to Ranger Suarez with six. Suarez is projected to go 6.1 innings, while Chirinos is projected to go just 4.2 innings.
Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Betting Tips
- Take the Phillies on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Marlins (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over
Philadelphia Phillies Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| J.T. Realmuto | Out | Knee |
| Taijuan Walker | Out | Finger |
| Bryce Harper | Out | Hamstring |
| Kyle Schwarber | Out | Groin |
| Dylan Covey | Out | Shoulder |
| Luis F. Ortiz | Out | Forearm |
| Spencer Turnbull | Out | Lat |
| Michael Rucker | Out | Hand |
| José Rodríguez | Out | Suspension |
Miami Marlins Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Sandy Alcantara | Out | Elbow |
| Braxton Garrett | Out | Elbow |
| Jesús Luzardo | Out | Back |
| Sixto Sánchez | Out | Shoulder |
| Edward Cabrera | Out | Shoulder |
| Vidal Bruján | Questionable | Undisclosed |
| Ryan Weathers | Out | Finger |
| Eury Pérez | Out | Elbow |
| Josh Simpson | Out | Elbow |
| Bryan Hoeing | Out | Hamstring |
