Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Prediction & Betting Tips 6/29/2024

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Preview

First pitch for this NL East matchup is set for 4:05 PM ET from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, and the Phillies are the heavy favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at -256. The Marlins are +211 on the money line, and the over/under line is currently 8.5 runs.

NSPPH will be televising this matchup, and Aaron Nola will be on the mound for the Phillies, while the Marlins are starting Roddery Munoz. Miami comes in with a record of 29-53, which is 5th in the NL East, while the Phillies are 54-28 and are in 1st in the division.

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Philadelphia Phillies Trends and Key Stats

• The Marlins are 2-3 across their last five road games. They have gone 2-3 vs. the runline.
• In the Phillies’ five most recent home games, their record stands at 2-3 (SU) with 2-3 against the spread.
• The Phillies have a straight-up record of 6-4 in their last ten games as the favorite, and a 5-5 record vs. the runline.
• Looking at the Marlins’ previous ten games as the underdog they are 6-4 straight-up and 6-4 vs. the runline.

Philadelphia picked up a 2-0 win over the Marlins in the most recent game of this series. The Phillies had just two more hits than the Marlins and struck out eight times, but still picked up a win. Heading into the game, they were favored at -225 on the money line.

Cristopher Sanchez started for the Phillies and picked up the win, going nine innings and not giving up a run. He finished the game with just three strikeouts and allowed two walks. Kyle Tyler only went 4 2/3 innings for the Marlins, giving up one run on four hits.

In the Phillies’ two-run 5th inning, they got RBI singles from Ronald Torreyes and Andrew McCutchen. Torreyes finished the game with three hits and scored both of the Phillies’ runs.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Miami is 29-53 overall and 25.0 games behind the Phillies in the NL East. The Marlins are 6-18 against other NL East teams this season. Miami is on the road today, and they are 13-26 as the road team this year.

So far, the Marlins have gone 3-12 as the favorite, and they are 26-41 as the underdog. Miami’s overall series record is 7-18-1, and they are 6-4 across their last ten games. At home, the Marlins are 16-27 this year.

When betting the run line on the Miami Marlins, it’s been a better idea to take them as the underdog. They are 34-33 against the run line as the underdog, compared to just 1-14 as the favorite. Their average run differential in losing games is -3.9, compared to +2.8 in winning games.

The Miami Marlins are on the road today against the Philadelphia Phillies, with an over/under line of 8.5 runs. The Marlins have played 81 games so far this season, and their average combined run total per game is 8.5 runs. Their over/under record for the season is 42-39, and when the line is set at 8.5 runs, their record is 15-14. So far, 12 of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs, accounting for 14.6% of their games.

Miami is sending Roddery Muñoz to the mound today, and he comes in with a record of 1-3 and ERA of 5.80. Muñoz has made seven starts this year and has a WHIP of 1.40. In his last outing, he took the loss, giving up four earned runs in six innings of work. Looking back over his last four starts, Muñoz has allowed at least two homers in each outing. So far, he has made two quality starts and is averaging 8.58 strikeouts per nine innings. Opponents are batting .229 off the right-hander this year.

So far this season, the Marlins are averaging just 3.5 runs per game, which is 29th in the league. They have been even worse on the road, averaging only 2.9 runs per contest. Overall, they are the league’s worst home run hitting team and have the worst team ISO in the MLB. Miami’s team batting average of .230 is 19th in the league.

Bryan De La Cruz has been the Marlins’ top power threat this season, as his 14 home runs are the best mark on the team and 12th in the league. However, he is batting just .242 for the season. Jazz Chisholm Jr. has been a bit better in terms of batting average, coming in at .260, and he has gone deep 10 times this season. Chisholm Jr. is also on a six-game hitting streak.

With an overall record of 54-28, the Phillies lead the NL East by eight games over the Braves. The Phillies are 13-7 against other teams in the NL East. Currently, they are at home, where they are 32-13 this season.

Philadelphia has won three straight series, and their overall series record is 17-7-4, which includes being 31-11 as the home favorite. As the favorite overall, the Phillies are 48-22 this season, and they are 6-6 as the underdog. The Phillies have been good in night games, going 35-14 this season.

When betting the run line with the Phillies this season, it’s been a profitable endeavor. They are 44-38 against the run line overall, and 24-21 at home. Their average run differential is +1.5 runs per game, and they have a run line record of 20-17 on the road. They have been favored in 70 games and are 38-32 against the run line in those contests.

The Phillies have played 17 games with an over/under line set at 8.5 runs this season, and the over has hit in 10 of those contests. Overall, the over/under record for Philadelphia games this season is 35-42, with the average line set at 8 runs per game. The combined run average for Phillies games this year is 8.5 runs per game.

Phillies starter Aaron Nola has been pitching well this season, coming into the game with a record of 9-3 and an ERA of 3.39. He has made 16 starts this year and has one complete game shutout. Nola has turned in 11 quality starts and is averaging 8.02 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last outing, Nola picked up the win, going seven innings and giving up just one earned run. Looking back over his last four outings, he has given up three earned runs twice and eight earned runs once. Nola has been much better at home, coming in with a record of 4-2 and an ERA of 4.08.

So far this season, the Phillies offense has been one of the best in the league, as they are 3rd in runs per game and have the league’s top home run hitting lineup. As a team, they are batting .259, which is the 3rd best mark in the MLB, and have an on-base percentage of .332. Philadelphia has also been very good at home, averaging 5.3 runs per game.

Bryce Harper has been red hot for the Phillies, as he has gone 7/18 with two homers and four runs scored over his last four games. Harper’s 20 home runs this season is 6th best in the league, and he is also 7th in the MLB with 58 RBIs. Alec Bohm is hitting .300 this season and is 4th in the league with 65 RBIs.

Our prediction for the Phillies vs. Marlins matchup is that the Phillies will pick up a 5-4 win. However, with the Phillies being such heavy favorites on the money line, we recommend taking the over at 8.5 runs. You can get the over at -114, and we have the Phillies winning by a score of 5-4.

Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Aaron Nola finishing with six strikeouts, which is good for fourth among all starters. As for Roddery Muñoz, he is projected to finish with six strikeouts, which is 14th among starters.

Offensively, the Marlins are projected to finish with eight hits, compared to the Phillies, who we have finishing with eight hits as well. The Marlins are projected to finish with five runs, and the Phillies are projected to finish with five home runs.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Betting Tips

• Take the Phillies on the moneyline
• On the run line we like the Marlins (+1.5)
• Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over

Philadelphia Phillies Injury Report

Miami Marlins Injury Report