Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Preview
At 6:20 PM ET, the Marlins and Phillies square off in an NL East matchup. This one is taking place at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, and the Phillies are the heavy favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at -260. The Marlins have a record of 29-52, while the Phillies are 53-28.
BSFL will be televising Friday’s matchup, and the over/under line is currently at 8.5 runs. Kyle Tyler will be going for the Marlins, while the Phillies are set to start Cristopher Sanchez.
Check out BetCoco for Philadelphia Phillies – Miami Marlins odds
Philadelphia Phillies Trends and Key Stats
- Across their last five road games, the Marlins are 2-3. This includes going 2-3 vs. the runline.
- Conversely, the Phillies have achieved a 2-3 (SU) record and 2-3 record in their last five home games.
- As the favorite, the Phillies are 6-4 over their last ten games, including going 5-5 vs. the runline.
- Looking at the Marlins’ previous ten games as the underdog they are 6-4 straight-up and 7-3 vs. the runline.
Miami rallied for four runs in the 7th inning in the most recent game of this Marlins vs. Phillies series. The Marlins scored one run in the 1st inning but didn’t score another run until putting up four in the top of the 7th, picking up a 7-4 win. Heading into the game, the Marlins were at +248 on the money line.
Philadelphia wasted a good outing from Zack Wheeler, as he gave up just two earned runs in 6 2/3 innings of work for the Phillies. Jeff Hoffman took the loss. Anthony Bender got the win out of the bullpen for the Marlins as Trevor Rogers went six innings, giving up three earned runs.
Miami’s offense was led by Jake Burger, who homered and went 3/5 at the plate. He scored three times and drove in two runs. Bryan De La Cruz also had a two-hit game and drove in three runs for the Marlins.
Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Prediction
Miami is 29-52 overall and 24 games behind the Phillies in the NL East. So far, they have gone just 6-17 in divisional games. The Marlins are on the road today, where they are 13-25 this season compared to 16-27 at home.
So far, the Marlins have really struggled as the favorite, going just 3-12 this year. As the underdog, they are 26-40, which includes a mark of 13-25 on the road. Miami’s overall series record is 7-18-1, and they are coming off a series win over the Braves.
When the Marlins win, they tend to do so by a comfortable margin, as their average run differential in victories is +2.8. However, they have struggled to cover the run line as the favorite, going just 1-14. Overall, Miami is 35-46 against the run line this season, sitting at -1.5 runs per game.
Today’s over/under line of 8.5 runs is right in line with the Miami Marlins’ season average of 8.5 runs per game. The Marlins have played 80 games this season, and 15 of them have had over/under lines of 8.5 runs. Miami’s over/under record for those games is 15-14. Overall, Miami’s over/under record for the season is 42-38.
Kyle Tyler will be getting the start for the Marlins on the road against the Phillies. In his first start of the season, Tyler went 4 innings and gave up 2 earned runs on 3 hits. He struck out 2 batters and gave up a home run. Tyler’s first appearance of the season was in relief, and he went 2 innings, giving up 1 run on 1 hit.
So far this season, the Marlins are averaging just 3.5 runs per game, which is the 29th mark in the league. Their home and away splits are pretty similar, as they are averaging 4 runs per game at home and 3 runs per game on the road. Miami’s team batting average is just 18th in the league at .232, and they are also one of the league’s worst home run-hitting teams, coming in at 21st.
Bryan De La Cruz and Jazz Chisholm Jr. have been the Marlins’ top power threats so far this season, with De La Cruz’s 14 homers leading the team and Chisholm’s 10 homers being the 2nd most on the team. De La Cruz has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 10/37 in his last nine games, including two homers. Jesús Sánchez has also gone deep three times in his last nine games, batting .258 over that stretch.
Philadelphia is hosting the Marlins today with an overall record of 53-28, which has them leading the NL East by 8 games over the Braves. So far, they have gone 12-7 in divisional games. The Phillies have been tough to beat at home, going 31-13, and they are 22-15 on the road.
So far, the Phillies have been really good in night games, going 35-14 this season. As the favorite, the Phillies have gone 47-22 and 30-11 as the favorite at home. Philadelphia’s overall series record is 17-7-4, and they have won three straight series.
Heading into game two vs. the Marlins, the Phillies are losing the series 0-1, and they are 6-4 in their last 10 games overall.
When the Phillies win, they win big, with an average run margin of 3.9 runs per game. That has helped them to a 43-38 run line record this season. They have been a solid bet at home, going 23-21 on the run line. As the favorite, they are 37-32 on the run line, while as the underdog, they are 6-6.
The Philadelphia Phillies are playing at home against the Miami Marlins, and today’s over/under line is set at 8.5 runs. The combined run average for Phillies games this season is 8.6 runs, and their over/under record is 35-41. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, their record is 6-10. So far this season, 59.3% of their games have had lower over/under lines than today’s 8.5-run total.
Left-hander Cristopher Sánchez gets the start for the Phillies today as he faces off against the Marlins at home. He has made 15 starts this season and has a record of 5-3 with a 2.67 ERA. Sánchez most recently pitched on June 23rd, where he picked up the win, going seven innings and not giving up a run. In that outing, he only gave up four hits and three walks. Looking at his overall numbers, Sánchez has turned in eight quality starts and is averaging 7.47 strikeouts per nine innings. Per nine innings, he is allowing 2.56 walks.
Not only are the Phillies the top-scoring team in the league this season, but they have also been even better at home, averaging 5.4 runs per game. Overall, they are batting .259 as a team, which is the 3rd best mark in the league. Philadelphia is also near the top of the league in on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS.
Over his last five games, Bryce Harper has gone 9/22 with two homers and seven RBIs. For the season, Harper is batting .303 and is 5th in the league with 20 homers. Alec Bohm and Kyle Schwarber are also having strong seasons, with Bohm batting .301 and Schwarber at .250 with 17 homers.
Our prediction for today’s Marlins vs. Phillies matchup is to take the over, with the line sitting at 8.5 runs. We have the Phillies winning this one by a score of 6-5, giving us a little bit of wiggle room on the over/under line.
If you’re looking for a money line pick, we would recommend staying away from the Phillies at -260. Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Kyle Tyler finishing with more strikeouts than Cristopher Sanchez, with Sanchez being projected to finish with seven K’s.
Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Betting Tips
- Take the Phillies on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Marlins (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Philadelphia Phillies Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| J.T. Realmuto | Out | Knee |
| Taijuan Walker | Out | Finger |
| Bryce Harper | Questionable | Hamstring |
| Kyle Schwarber | Questionable | Groin |
| Dylan Covey | Out | Shoulder |
| Luis F. Ortiz | Out | Forearm |
| Spencer Turnbull | Out | Lat |
| Kody Clemens | Out | Back |
| Michael Rucker | Out | Hand |
| José Rodríguez | Out | Suspension |
Miami Marlins Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Sandy Alcantara | Out | Elbow |
| Braxton Garrett | Out | Elbow |
| Jesús Luzardo | Out | Back |
| Sixto Sánchez | Out | Shoulder |
| Edward Cabrera | Out | Shoulder |
| Ryan Weathers | Out | Finger |
| Eury Pérez | Out | Elbow |
| Josh Simpson | Out | Elbow |
| Bryan Hoeing | Out | Hamstring |
