Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Prediction & Betting Tips 6/27/2024

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Preview

First pitch for Thursday’s Marlins vs. Phillies matchup is set for 6:20 PM ET from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA. The Phillies are the heavy favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at -312, while the Marlins are +251 underdogs. The over/under line is currently 7.5 runs.

NSPPH will be televising this NL East matchup, and Zach Wheeler will be on the mound for the Phillies. The Marlins are starting Trevor Rogers, and they are 28-52 this season, which is 5th in the NL East. Philadelphia leads the NL East with a record of 53-27.

Check out BetCoco for Philadelphia Phillies – Miami Marlins odds

Philadelphia Phillies Trends and Key Stats

• Across their last five road games, the Marlins are 1-4. This includes going 1-4 vs. the runline.
• Conversely, the Phillies have achieved a 2-3 (SU) record and 2-3 record in their last five home games.
• Over their last ten games as the favorite, the Phillies have a straight-up record of 6-4, while going 5-5 against the runline.
• When playing as the underdog, the Marlins have won 5-5 of their previous ten games straight-up, while going 6-4 against the runline.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Miami is coming off a game in which they wasted several good performances. In their 5-1 loss to the Royals, Valente Bellozo was excellent on the mound, going five innings without giving up a run. They also got a big offensive performance from Huascar Brazoban, going 1-2 with a run scored.

The Marlins really missed out on a chance to pick up a win, as they were the +176 underdog going into Kansas City. Miami’s offense scored their only run in the 2nd inning but didn’t have another hit the rest of the game. The Marlins went on to lose 5-1.

Miami is 28-52 overall, putting them 5th in the NL East, 25.0 games behind the Phillies. So far, they have gone just 5-17 in divisional matchups. The Marlins kick off their series vs. the Phillies on the road today.

At home, the Marlins are 16-27 compared to 12-25 on the road. Miami has really struggled as the favorite this year, going just 3-12. As for their record as the underdog, they are 25-40. Miami’s series record is 7-18-1 this year, and they lost their most recent series vs. the Royals.

The Marlins have been a solid bet on the run line this season, going 34-46 overall. They have been especially good on the road, going 18-19 on the run line. They have been a poor bet as the favorite, going just 1-14 on the run line, but have been much better as the underdog, going 33-32.

With an over/under line of 7.5 runs, the Miami Marlins and Philadelphia Phillies are expected to score fewer runs than their combined average of 8.5 runs per game. Miami has played to the over in 13 of 19 games with an over/under line of 7.5 runs this season, and their games have averaged a combined 8 runs per game. The under has hit in their last three games, and they have an over/under record of 41-38 on the season.

Miami is sending left-hander Trevor Rogers to the mound today vs. the Phillies. He has made 15 starts this year and has a record of 1-8 with a 4.90 ERA. Rogers’ WHIP for the season is currently 1.55, and opponents are batting .279 off him this year. In his 15 appearances, Rogers has turned in two quality starts. Looking back at his last outing, Rogers finished with a no-decision vs. the Mariners, giving up two earned runs in 6 1/3 innings of work. He has given up two earned runs in each of his last three outings. Per nine innings, Rogers has 7.17 strikeouts and 3.82 walks.

As a team, the Marlins are averaging just 3.5 runs per game (29th in the MLB). They have been even worse on the road, averaging only 2.9 runs per contest. Miami’s offense has the league’s worst team ISO and is also near the bottom of the league in on-base percentage and slugging.

Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Bryan De La Cruz have been the Marlins’ top two power threats this season, with Chisholm Jr. having 10 homers and De La Cruz at 14. However, Chisholm Jr. comes into the game with a batting average of just .264, and De La Cruz’s batting average is only .242. De La Cruz has three homers in his last nine games but is hitting just .237 in that stretch.

Heading into their last game vs. the Tigers, the Phillies closed out the series with a 6-2 win. Leading up to the game, they were the heavy favorite at -167. Offensively, the Phillies scored their six runs on jsonly 12 hits and didn’t hit a home run.

Spencer Turnbull got the start for the Phillies, going three innings and giving up just one run on one hit. He only had two strikeouts in the outing and took the loss. Philadelphia’s offense scored their other five runs over the 4th and 5th innings.

Philadelphia is 53-27 overall and leads the NL East by eight games over the Braves. The Phillies are 12-6 against other teams in the NL East. They will be hosting the Marlins today and have gone 31-12 at home this year.

So far, the Phillies have been good on the road, going 22-15. This season, the Phillies have been the favorite in most of their games, putting together a record of 47-21 as the favorite. As the underdog, the Phillies are 6-6 this year, and they have won two straight games as the home favorite. Looking at their overall series record, the Phillies are 17-7-4 and have won three straight series.

The Phillies have been a solid bet on the run line this season, going 43-37 overall. They are 23-20 against the run line at home, where they have a run differential of +2.0 runs per game. They are 20-17 vs. the run line on the road, where they have a run differential of +1.0 runs per game.

The Philadelphia Phillies are playing at home today against the Miami Marlins. The over/under line for the game is set at 7.5 runs, which is lower than their season average of 8 runs per game. The Phillies have a 34-41 over/under record this season, and their games have had an average combined run total of 8.6 runs per game. The under has hit in their last two games.

Right-hander Zack Wheeler gets the start for the Phillies today as he faces the Marlins at home. He has made 16 starts this season and has a record of 9-4 with a 2.73 ERA. Wheeler’s WHIP for the season is currently .96. In his last outing, he went seven innings, giving up just one earned run and picking up the win. Looking back further, he has allowed just one earned run in three straight outings. Wheeler has been much better at home this season, coming in with a 1.81 ERA compared to 5.29 on the road.

So far this season, the Phillies have been one of the best offensive teams in the league, averaging 5.1 runs per game (2nd) and batting .259 as a team, which is the 3rd best mark in the MLB. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.4 runs per game. Overall, they are 1st in team batting average, 2nd in on-base percentage, and 4th in slugging percentage.

Bryce Harper has been on a tear of late, batting .465 over his last 10 games with 5 homers and 11 RBIs. For the season, he is hitting .305 with 20 homers, which is 5th in the league. Alec Bohm and Kyle Schwarber have also been key run producers for the Phillies, as Bohm’s 64 RBIs are 3rd in the league, and Schwarber is 11th in the league with 49 RBIs.

With the Marlins at +251 on the money line, we see this as a great opportunity to take advantage of the value in this matchup. Our predicted score is 6-5 in favor of the Marlins, giving us a lot of room to take the Marlins straight up.

Looking at the starting pitchers, we actually have Trevor Rogers finishing with more strikeouts than Zack Wheeler. However, Wheeler is projected to go six innings, while Rogers is projected to go six, which could be a reason to look at Wheeler’s strikeout prop.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Betting Tips

• We like the Marlins on the moneyline (+251)
• The Marlins are also our pick on the spread at +1.5
• Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over

Philadelphia Phillies Injury Report

Miami Marlins Injury Report