Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros Preview
The Phillies will be looking to extend their three-game winning streak when they host the Astros tonight at 6:40 PM ET. This interleague matchup is taking place at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, and the Phillies are the slight money line favorite (-144). The Astros have a money line odds of +121 and they are 1st in the AL West with a record of 70-61.
Justin Verlander will be starting for the Astros, while the Phillies are sending Aaron Nola to the mound. Tuesday’s over/under line is currently 8.5 runs, and the game will be televised on ESPN.
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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Houston Astros Trends and Key Stats
- The Astros are 2-3 across their last five road games. They have gone 3-2 vs. the runline.
- On the opposing side, the Phillies have a 3-2 (SU) record, along with a 2-3 record in their last five home contests.
- As the favorite, the Phillies are 7-3 over their last ten games, including going 4-6 vs. the runline.
- The Astros have a 4-6 straight-up record and a 8-2 record vs. the runline over their previous ten games as the underdog.
Philadelphia picked up a 3-2 win over the Astros in the most recent game of this series. The Phillies had a late rally, scoring one run in the 5th, 6th, and 10th innings. As for the Astros, they scored two runs in the 4th and added their final run in the 5th.
Zack Wheeler started for the Phillies and went six innings while giving up two runs and striking out six. He picked up a win in the game, while Matt Strahm got the save. Ronel Blanco only went 5 2/3 innings for the Astros, giving up two earned runs on seven hits.
Brandon Marsh hit the game’s only home run while going 1/3 with an RBI. Bryce Harper and Trea Turner each had two hits and an RBI for the Phillies’ offense.
Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros Prediction
The Astros hold a 70-61 record this season, putting them in 1st place in the AL West. Currently, they are 3.5 games ahead of the Mariners for the top spot in the division. So far, they have gone 21-18 in divisional matchups. Houston is on the road for today’s game vs. the Phillies.
Houston has gone 35-29 at home this season and have gone 35-32 on the road. As the favorite, the Astros are 52-43 this season, and they are 18-18 as the underdog. The Astros’ overall series record is 23-17-2 this year.
When the Astros are on the road, they have been a solid bet against the run line, going 38-29. They have covered the run line in three straight road games and in seven straight games as an underdog. Their average run margin in winning games is 3.7, while it is -3.0 in losing games.
The Houston Astros are on the road today against the Philadelphia Phillies with an over/under line of 8.5 runs. The combined run average for Astros games this season is 8.6 runs, and their over/under record is 52-75. Their average over/under line for the season is 9 runs, and when the line is set at 8.5 runs, their record is 16-26. So far this season, 37 of their games have had over/under lines set higher than 8.5 runs, accounting for 28.2% of their games, while 52 games have had lower lines, making up 39.7% of their games.
Right-hander Justin Verlander gets the start for the Astros today as he faces the Phillies on the road. He has made 11 starts this year and has a record of 3-3 with a 3.92 ERA. Verlander’s WHIP for the season is 1.19, and opponents are batting .233 off him this year. In his last outing, he took the loss, giving up two earned runs in five innings of work. Looking back, he has finished with a no-decision in three straight outings. The right-hander has allowed at least one homer in four straight starts.
Yainer Diaz has been on a tear for the Astros, batting .349 over his last 10 games with four homers. For the season, he is hitting .300 with 16 home runs, which is 5th on the team. Diaz’s 72 RBIs are the most on the team. Yordan Alvarez has the most homers for the Astros this season, with 25, and is 2nd on the team with 67 RBIs. He is also batting .305.
As a team, the Astros are averaging 4.6 runs per game and are the 3rd best hitting team in the league. They are also one of the top home run hitting teams in the league. Overall, they are 10th in scoring and 3rd in team batting average.
Philadelphia will take on the Astros with an overall record of 77-54, and they lead the NL East by six games over the Braves. The Phillies have won three straight games, and they are 20-14 against other teams in the NL East this year. So far, they have been good at home, going 43-23, and they are above .500 on the road at 34-31.
As the favorite, the Phillies are 65-40 this year and 42-21 as the favorite at home. Their overall series record is 22-16-6 this year, and they are currently winning their series vs. the Astros.
The Phillies have been a solid team to bet on the run line this season, as they are 64-67 overall. They have been a better bet on the run line at home, going 31-35. Their average run margin is +0.9 runs per game, and they have been a better bet on the run line as the underdog, going 14-12.
The Philadelphia Phillies are playing at home today against the Houston Astros. The over/under line for the game is set at 8.5 runs. The Phillies’ games have averaged 8.9 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 61-64 overall. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, their record is 11-13. So far this season, 30.5% of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs.
Right-hander Aaron Nola gets the start for the Phillies today as he faces the Astros at home. Nola has made 26 starts this season and has a record of 11-6 with a 3.45 ERA. In his last outing, he finished with a no-decision, going 5 1/3 innings and giving up two earned runs on eight hits. Nola has given up at least two home runs in three of his last four starts. So far, he has one complete game shutout this year. Nola’s ERA at home is 3.49 compared to 4.48 on the road.
With a team batting average of .259, the Phillies have the 4th best mark in the league this season. They are also 5th in the league in scoring at 4.9 runs per game. Philadelphia has been even better at home, averaging 5.3 runs per contest. Overall, they are 2nd in home runs and have the league’s 7th best OPS.
Over the past eight games, Bryson Stott has gone 11/28, and Brandon Marsh has gone 7/24 with two homers. Stott is also on a five-game hitting streak, while Marsh is on a four-game streak. J.T. Realmuto and Bryce Harper are also on four and five-game hitting streaks, respectively.
With the Astros being listed at +121 on the money line, this is the route we recommend going for today’s Astros and Phillies matchup. We have the Astros winning this one by a score of 5-4, giving us some nice value with the Astros on the money line.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we do have Justin Verlander finishing with more strikeouts than Aaron Nola, as we have Verlander finishing with six and Nola with five. However, our projections have Nola finishing with a lower ERA than Verlander.
Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros Betting Tips
- We like the Astros on the moneyline (+121)
- The Astros are also our pick on the spread at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over
Philadelphia Phillies Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Dylan Covey | Out | Shoulder |
| Luis F. Ortiz | Out | Forearm |
| Spencer Turnbull | Out | Lat |
| José Alvarado | Out | Personal |
| Weston Wilson | Out | Personal |
| José Rodríguez | Out | Suspension |
Houston Astros Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Pressly | Out | Back |
| Kendall Graveman | Out | Shoulder |
| Lance McCullers Jr. | Out | Forearm |
| Kyle Tucker | Out | Shin |
| Cristian Javier | Out | Elbow |
| Luis Garcia | Out | Elbow |
| Bennett Sousa | Out | Shoulder |
| José Urquidy | Out | Elbow |
| Penn Murfee | Out | Elbow |
| Oliver Ortega | Out | Elbow |
| J.P. France | Out | Undisclosed |
