Philadelphia Phillies vs Cleveland Guardians Preview
At 1:35 PM ET, the Guardians and Phillies face off in an interleague matchup. This one is being played at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, and the Phillies are favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -145 compared to the Guardians at +122. The over/under line is currently 9.5 runs.
Cleveland comes in with a record of 62-42, while the Phillies are 65-39. Joey Cantillo is starting for the Guardians, while the Phillies are going with Kolby Allard. This game will be televised on MLBN.
Check out BetCoco for Philadelphia Phillies – Cleveland Guardians odds
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cleveland Guardians Trends and Key Stats
- 2-3 is the record of Guardians in their last five road games. They have also gone 2-3 vs. the runline.
- In the Phillies’ five most recent home games, their record stands at 2-3 (SU) with 2-3 against the spread.
- In their last ten games as the favorite, the Phillies have a record of 4-6 straight-up, and have gone 4-6 against the runline.
- When playing as the underdog, the Guardians have won 1-9 of their previous ten games straight-up, while going 2-8 against the runline.
Thanks to a seven-run 4th inning for the Phillies’ offense, they cruised to an easy 8-0 win over the Guardians in the most recent game of this series. Heading into the game, the Phillies were favored at -156 on the money line.
The starting pitching matchup for this game featured Tyler Phillips for the Phillies, and he went nine innings while giving up just four hits and no earned runs. Phillips finished the game with four strikeouts and picked up a win in the outing. Carlos Carrasco got the start for the Guardians, going just 3 2/3 innings and giving up six runs.
At the plate, Kyle Schwarber and Brandon Marsh each homered for the Phillies. Schwarber, Nick Castellanos, and Bryce Harper each had two hits and two RBIs. Philadelphia’s offense was also helped by four Guardians’ errors.
Philadelphia Phillies vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction
Cleveland is on the road for today’s matchup vs. the Phillies, and they are 62-42 overall, good for 1st place in the AL Central. The Guardians hold a 4.5-game lead over the Twins in the division. This season, they are 17-15 in divisional matchups.
The Guardians have gone 4-6 over their last 10 games, and they are 20-10-3 in series this year. So far, they have been really good at home, going 33-15, and they have gone 29-27 on the road. As the favorite, the Guardians are 45-23 this season.
When the Guardians win, they win by an average of 3.3 runs per game, which is why they are 29-39 against the run line as the favorite. When they lose, they lose by an average of 3.2 runs per game, which is why they are 21-15 against the run line as the underdog. Overall, their run line record is 50-54, and their average run margin per game is +0.7.
Despite the Cleveland Guardians’ over/under record of 49-49 on the season, the under has been a strong play in their games recently, as the under has hit in each of their last four contests. The Guardians’ games have averaged 8.4 runs per game this season, and their games have had an average over/under line of 8 runs. However, when the over/under line has been set at 9.5 runs, the over has gone 2-1. Cleveland’s games have had an over/under line of 9.5 runs or higher in just 3 of their 101 games this season, making up only 2.9% of their games.
The Guardians will be sending Joey Cantillo to the mound today against the Phillies. He’s eager to kick off his season with a solid performance, marking his debut for the year.
Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor have been the Guardians’ top power threats this season, as Ramirez’s 24 homers lead the team and is 8th in the league, and Naylor is 2nd on the team with 22 homers. Ramirez’s 82 RBIs are the 2nd most in the league. However, Ramirez has hit just .233 over his last eight games, and Naylor has also been struggling, going 3/20 in his last seven games.
As a team, the Guardians are averaging 4.6 runs per game and come into the game with a team batting average of .240. They are also one of the league’s best teams at not striking out. Currently, they are 13th in the league in scoring and are 11th in on-base percentage.
With a record of 65-39, the Phillies lead the NL East by 9.5 games over the Braves. The Phillies have gone 15-10 against other teams in the NL East. At home, the Phillies are 38-17 this season and 27-22 on the road.
As the favorite, the Phillies have gone 57-31 this season, and they are 37-15 as the favorite at home. So far, they are 8-8 as the underdog. The Phillies are looking to even up their series vs. the Guardians today, and they are 19-11-5 in series this year. They are currently on a three-series losing streak.
When the Phillies win, they win by an average of 3.9 runs per game. When they lose, they lose by an average of 3.5 runs per game. Their run line record is 53-51, and they are 28-27 at home. The Phillies are 45-43 against the run line as the favorite and 8-8 as the underdog. Their average run margin is +1.1 runs per game. They are 25-24 against the run line on the road.
Philadelphia has played in 90 games this season with an over/under line lower than today’s 9.5-run total, and the under has hit in 86.5% of those contests. The over/under record for the Phillies this season is 46-53, and when the line has been set at 9.5 runs, the over has gone 3-6. The combined run average in Phillies games this season is 8.7 runs per game, and they are currently on a two-game under streak.
Kolby Allard will be making his fourth appearance and fourth start of the season for the Phillies. In his three starts, he has yet to record a quality start and has an ERA of 6.57. Allard’s record is 0-1, and he has given up a total of two home runs. His WHIP for the season is 1.62, and opponents have a batting average of .296 against him. Allard’s FIP for the season is 4.23, and he is averaging 9.49 strikeouts per nine innings.
Philadelphia comes into today’s game as one of the best offensive teams in the league, averaging 4.9 runs per game (5th) and batting a collective .257 (3rd). They have been even better at home, averaging 5.3 runs per contest. The Phillies have been a patient team at the plate, as they are 5th in walks and have the 4th best on-base percentage in the league.
Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber have been two of the Phillies’ top power threats this season, with Harper leading the team with 24 homers and Schwarber right behind him at 20. Harper is also 9th in the league in RBIs, while his 67 RBIs are the 2nd most on the team. Schwarber is 3rd on the team in RBIs and comes into the game on a three-game hitting streak. Alec Bohm is also on a three-game hitting streak and is batting .297 for the season.
Our prediction for this Guardians vs. Phillies matchup is to take the Phillies on the money line at -145. We actually have the Phillies winning this one by a score of 5-4, so you could also look to take the Phillies on the run line if you’re looking for a little more value.
Looking at the over/under line, we would actually take the under, as we have this game finishing with a combined nine runs, and with the line sitting at 9.5, there isn’t a lot of wiggle room. Offensively, we have the Phillies finishing with eight hits compared to the Guardians with nine.
Philadelphia Phillies vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Tips
- Take the Phillies on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Guardians (+1.5)
- Our MLB model projects 9 runs, and we suggest taking the under
Philadelphia Phillies Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Taijuan Walker | Out | Finger |
| Dylan Covey | Out | Shoulder |
| Luis F. Ortiz | Out | Forearm |
| Spencer Turnbull | Out | Lat |
| Ranger Suárez | Out | Back |
| Alec Bohm | Questionable | Ankle |
| José Rodríguez | Out | Suspension |
Cleveland Guardians Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Matthew Boyd | Out | Elbow |
| Sam Hentges | Out | Shoulder |
| Shane Bieber | Out | Elbow |
| Trevor Stephan | Out | Elbow |
| James Karinchak | Out | Shoulder |
| Tanner Bibee | Questionable | Knee |
