Philadelphia Phillies vs Cleveland Guardians Preview
Carlos Carrasco will start for the Guardians on Saturday, as they are on the road to face the Phillies in Philadelphia. Tyler Phillips is starting for the Phillies, who are 64-39 and they are 2-0 on their current losing streak. Philadelphia is favored at -159 on the money line, while the Guardians are +134. The over/under line is currently at 9 runs.
BSGL will be televising this interleague matchup, and first pitch from Citizen Bank Park is set for 6:05 PM ET. The Guardians are currently 1st in the AL Central, while the Phillies are leading the NL East.
Check out BetCoco for Philadelphia Phillies – Cleveland Guardians odds
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cleveland Guardians Trends and Key Stats
- 2-3 is the record of Guardians in their last five road games. They have also gone 2-3 vs. the runline.
- On the other side, the Phillies have gone 2-3 (SU) and 2-3 in their previous five home contests.
- As the favorite, the Phillies are 3-7 over their last ten games, including going 3-7 vs. the runline.
- Looking back at their last ten games as the underdog, the Guardians have a 2-8 straight-up record and a 3-7 record vs. the runline.
Cleveland picked up a 3-1 win over the Phillies in the most recent game of this series. The Guardians offense only had two more hits than the Phillies and struck out eight times, but still picked up a win. Heading into the game, they were at +155 on the money line.
Ben Lively started for the Guardians and picked up the win, going six innings and giving up just one hit and one earned run. Emmanuel Clase got the save. Cristopher Sanchez had a decent outing for the Phillies, taking the loss after going six innings and giving up three runs.
At the plate, Angel Martinez, Andres Gimenez, and David Fry each had two hits and an RBI for the Guardians. Bryson Stott hit the game’s only home run and went 3/4 for the Phillies.
Philadelphia Phillies vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction
Cleveland is on the road today vs. the Phillies with an overall record of 62-41, which has them leading the AL Central by 4.5 games over the Twins. So far, they have gone just 17-15 in divisional games. The Guardians took the first game of this series vs. the Phillies and have an overall series record of 20-10-3 this year.
At home, the Guardians have gone 33-15 this year, and they have been a solid team on the road, entering today’s game with a record of 29-26. As the favorite, Cleveland is 45-23 this year and 17-18 as the underdog. They are 5-5 over their last 10 games overall.
When the Cleveland Guardians are on the road, they have been a solid team to back on the run line this season. They are 28-27 against the run line in away games, and their average run margin in those games is +0.7 runs per game. Overall, they have a run line record of 50-53, with an average run margin of +0.8 runs per game. They have been a better team to back on the run line when they are the underdog, as they are 21-14 in those games compared to 29-39 when they are the favorite.
The Cleveland Guardians have been involved in a lot of low-scoring games this season, with their games averaging 8.4 runs per game. Their over/under record for the season is 49-48, and they have gone under the total in three straight games. When the over/under line is set at 9 runs, their record is 5-7-2, and only 5.8% of their games this season have had an over/under line set at 9 runs or higher.
Carlos Carrasco gets the start for the Guardians today as he faces the Phillies on the road. So far this season, he has made 18 starts and has a record of 3-8 with an ERA of 5.32. Looking at his overall numbers, Carrasco has a WHIP of 1.38 and has given up a total of 15 home runs. In his last outing, Carrasco took the loss, giving up six earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of work. He has allowed at least one homer in each of his last four outings. Carrasco’s ERA for the season on the road is 5.53.
Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor have been the Guardians’ top power threats this season, as Ramirez’s 24 homers are 7th in the league and Naylor’s 22 homers are 9th. Ramirez’s 82 RBIs are the 2nd most in the MLB, while Naylor’s 72 RBIs are 5th in the league. However, both players have struggled a bit at the plate of late, with Ramirez hitting just .250 and Naylor at .176 over their last five games.
Overall, the Guardians are averaging 4.6 runs per game, which is 12th in the league. They have been a good home run hitting team this season but are just 14th in batting average. As a team, they are batting .241, and their collective on-base percentage and slugging percentage numbers are all right around the league average.
Philadelphia is hosting the Guardians today with an overall record of 64-39, which has them leading the NL East by nine games over the Mets. The Phillies have dropped two straight games, and this came after winning seven in a row. So far, they have gone 15-10 in divisional games.
At home, the Phillies are 37-17 this season compared to a 27-22 mark on the road. As the favorite, the Phillies have gone 56-31 and 8-8 as the underdog. So far, they have an overall series record of 19-11-5 but have lost three straight series.
Philadelphia has been a solid bet on the run line this season, going 52-51. They are exactly .500 at home, going 27-27, and have an average run margin of 1.0 runs per game. They have covered the run line in 44 of 87 games as the favorite and in 8 of 16 games as the underdog.
The Phillies have played in 77 games with over/under lines set below 9 runs, and their over/under record is 46-52 on the season. Their average combined run average is 8.7 runs per game, and the over/under record when the line is set at 9 runs is 3-8-1. They have played in 14 games with over/under lines set above 9 runs, which is just 13.6% of their games this season.
Tyler Phillips will be making his third start of the season for the Phillies, and he has been solid in his first two outings. He picked up a win in his last start against the Pirates, going 6 innings and allowing just 1 earned run. Phillips also went 6 innings in his first start of the season, but he gave up 4 runs in that outing against the Athletics.
Philadelphia comes into today’s game as one of the league’s best offensive teams, as they are 7th in runs per game (4.9) and are 3rd in team batting average at .256. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.3 runs per contest. The Phillies also have the league’s 6th best home run total and have been good at avoiding strikeouts this season.
Over his last 10 games, Alec Bohm has gone 12/36 and is batting .296 for the season. He also has 71 RBIs, which is the best mark on the team and 6th best in the league. Bryce Harper has been the team’s top power threat, with 23 homers, and is also 2nd on the team with 65 RBIs. Harper’s batting average for the season is .288.
Our prediction for this Guardians vs. Phillies matchup is that the Phillies will come out on top by a score of 6-5. With the money line payout sitting at -159, this is the bet we recommend making for this game.
Looking at the starting pitchers, our projections have Carlos Carrasco going for the Guardians and Tyler Phillips getting the start for the Phillies. Carrasco is projected to finish with around four strikeouts, while Phillips is predicted to finish with four as well.
Philadelphia Phillies vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Tips
- Take the Phillies on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Guardians (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Philadelphia Phillies Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Taijuan Walker | Out | Finger |
| Dylan Covey | Out | Shoulder |
| Luis F. Ortiz | Out | Forearm |
| Spencer Turnbull | Out | Lat |
| José Rodríguez | Out | Suspension |
Cleveland Guardians Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Matthew Boyd | Out | Elbow |
| Sam Hentges | Out | Shoulder |
| Shane Bieber | Out | Elbow |
| Trevor Stephan | Out | Elbow |
| James Karinchak | Out | Shoulder |
| Tanner Bibee | Questionable | Knee |
