Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago Cubs Preview
From Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, we have the Cubs and Phillies facing off in an NL matchup. Monday’s game has a start time of 6:40 PM ET, and the Phillies are favored at -177 on the money line. The money line odds for a Cubs win are sitting at +149, and the over/under line is at 8 runs.
Chicago comes in with a record of 80-76, while the Phillies are 92-64 and have lost two straight. Aaron Nola will start for the Phillies, and he is facing off against Nate Pearson for the Cubs. Pearson has been tabbed as the starter after the Cubs shut down Yu Darvish for the season. The Phillies are in first place in the NL East, while the Cubs are second in the NL Central.
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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs Trends and Key Stats
- The Cubs are 2-3 in their five most recent road games, including a 2-3 runline record.
- Conversely, the Phillies have achieved a 1-4 (SU) record and 1-4 record in their last five home games.
- Over their last ten games as the favorite, the Phillies have a straight-up record of 5-5, while going 3-7 against the runline.
- The Cubs have a 4-6 straight-up record and a 5-5 record vs. the runline over their previous ten games as the underdog.
Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago Cubs Prediction
Heading into their last game vs. the Nationals, the Cubs closed out the series with a 5-0 win. Leading up to the game, they were the heavy favorite at -207. Offensively, the Cubs scored their five runs on seven hits and didn’t hit a home run.
Shota Imanaga put together a good start for the Cubs, going seven innings and not giving up a run. He also issued just two walks and struck out four Nationals batters. Chicago’s offense was carried by Miguel Amaya, who went 2/3 with a double, two RBIs, and a run scored. The Cubs also had three other players with a single hit.
Chicago is nine games behind the Brewers for the NL Central lead as they are 80-76 overall this season. The Cubs are just 21-28 against other teams in the NL Central. They have an overall series record of 22-25-3 this year.
At home, the Cubs are 42-36 and just above .500 at 38-40 on the road. As the favorite, Chicago has gone 43-38 and 37-38 as the underdog. Their most recent series was vs. the Nationals, which they won three games to one. Heading into today’s road matchup, the Cubs are 5-5 over their last 10 games.
When betting the run line in Cubs games this season, it’s been more profitable to back them on the road, where they are 46-32 against the run line compared to 30-48 at home. They have an average run margin of +0.4 runs per game this season, with a +0.3 run margin on the road and +0.5 run margin at home. They have been an underdog in 75 games this season, and they have covered the run line in 49 of those contests.
The Chicago Cubs are on the road against the Philadelphia Phillies today. The over/under line for the game is set at 8 runs. The Cubs and their opponents have combined to average 8.7 runs per game this season. Chicago’s over/under record for the season is 73-78. The average over/under line for Cubs games this season is 8 runs. When the over/under line is set at 8 runs, the Cubs’ over/under record is 12-19-1. So far this season, 49.4% of Cubs games have had over/under lines set at 8 runs or higher, while 30.1% have had lines set at 7.5 runs or lower. The under has hit in the Cubs’ last three games.
Right-hander Nate Pearson is getting the start for the Cubs today as he faces the Phillies on the road. He has made 57 appearances this season but has yet to make a start. Pearson’s ERA is 4.71, and he has a record of 2-2. Opponents have hit .257 this season off Pearson, and his WHIP is 1.33. Looking back at his recent outings, Pearson has finished with a no-decision in each of his last three outings. Most recently, he pitched out of the bullpen on September 20th, giving up one hit and a walk in two-thirds of an inning of work. He didn’t give up a run in that outing.
So far this season, the Cubs are averaging 4.6 runs per game, which is 13th in the league. They have been a better offensive team on the road this season, averaging 5.1 runs per game. As a team, they are batting .243, which is 12th in the league, and are also near the top of the league in walks.
Michael Busch has struggled at the plate over his last nine games, hitting just .222 with three home runs. However, he has driven in six runs during that stretch. For the season, Busch is batting .252 with 21 homers. Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki are the Cubs’ top home run hitters this season, with 25 and 21 homers, respectively. Happ is also the team’s leading run producer, with 85 RBIs.
The Phillies will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Mets with a 2-1 loss. This was especially tough, as they held a lead going into the bottom of the 7th before the Mets scored a run to tie things up and added another in the 8th to take the lead. Philadelphia was the -141 favorite on the money line going into the game.
Zack Wheeler put together a good start for the Phillies, going seven innings and giving up just two earned runs, and striking out eight. However, the Phillies couldn’t close things out, and Wheeler took the loss. The Phillies also wasted a big game from Trea Turner, who went 2/4 with a run scored.
Philadelphia is 92-64 overall, putting them five games ahead of the Mets in the NL East. The Phillies are currently on a two-game losing streak, dropping the final two games of their series with the Mets. So far, they have gone 28-21 against other teams in the NL East.
At home, the Phillies are 52-26 this year and 40-38 on the road. As the favorite, Philadelphia has gone 79-46 this year and 13-18 as the underdog. Currently, they have won two straight games at home, and their overall series record is 27-18-7. The Phillies have dropped two straight series.
When the Phillies win, they do so by an average of 3.9 runs per game, which is why they are 75-81 against the run line this season. They have been a better bet on the run line at home, where they are 35-43, compared to 40-38 on the road. As a favorite, they are 59-66 against the run line, while they are 16-15 as the underdog. Overall, they are outscoring opponents by 0.8 runs per game this season.
The Philadelphia Phillies have played to an over/under record of 73-75 this season, with an average combined run average of 8.9 runs per game. When the over/under line has been set at 8 runs, they have a record of 18-18-2. Overall, 46.8% of their games have had over/under lines set above 8 runs, with 73 games having higher lines and 45 games having lower lines.
Right-hander Aaron Nola gets the start for the Phillies today as he faces the Cubs at home. Nola has made 31 starts this season and has a record of 12-8 with an ERA of 3.54. So far, he has turned in 19 quality starts, and his ERA at home is 3.81 compared to 4.48 on the road. Nola’s most recent outing came against the Brewers, where he finished with a no-decision, going seven innings and giving up one earned run. Before that, he had lost two straight starts. Against the Mets on September 13th, he gave up six earned runs in 4 1/3 innings of work.
As a team, the Phillies are 4th in the league in scoring at 4.8 runs per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 5 runs per contest. Overall, they are the 4th best hitting team in the league, with a team batting average of .257. Not only do the Phillies hit for a good average, but they have a lot of power in their lineup, as they are 6th in the league in homers.
Philadelphia has three hitters with at least 29 homers this season, led by Kyle Schwarber’s 36 long balls. Schwarber is also 11th in the league with 99 RBIs. Bryce Harper is 13th in the league with 29 homers and is 3rd on the team with 86 RBIs. Alec Bohm has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 6/20 in his last five games, including two homers.
Our recommended bet for today’s Cubs vs. Phillies game is to take the Cubs on the money line, with the payout sitting at +149. We actually have the Cubs winning this one by a score of 5-4, giving you some options if you want to look at the over/under line, as the line is currently sitting at 8 runs.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Aaron Nola going 4th in terms of picking up a win, and we actually have his strikeout total at five, which is good for third worst among today’s starters. As for the Cubs, they are projected to finish with eight strikeouts, which is good for fourth in the league.
Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago Cubs Betting Tips
- We like the Cubs on the moneyline (+149)
- The Cubs are also our pick on the spread at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over
Philadelphia Phillies Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Luis F. Ortiz | Out | Forearm |
| Spencer Turnbull | Out | Lat |
| Austin Hays | Out | Kidney |
| Rodolfo Castro | Out | Thumb |
| José Rodríguez | Out | Suspension |
Chicago Cubs Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Yency Almonte | Out | Shoulder |
| Colten Brewer | Out | Hand |
| Ian Happ | Questionable | Back |
| Adbert Alzolay | Out | Forearm |
| Julian Merryweather | Out | Knee |
| Brennen Davis | Out | Ankle |
| Nick Madrigal | Out | Finger |
| Ben Brown | Out | Neck |
| Luke Little | Out | Shoulder |
| Jordan Wicks | Out | Oblique |
