Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Prediction & Betting Tips 8/31/2024

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Preview

At 7:15 PM ET, the Braves and Phillies square off in an NL East matchup. This one is being played at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, and the Phillies are the betting favorite, with their money line odds sitting at -146. The Braves have a money line payout of +124, and the over/under line is at 8 runs.

Max Fried is starting for the Braves, and he is facing off against Zack Wheeler. The Braves are 2nd in the NL East, with a record of 74-61, while the Phillies are leading the division with a record of 79-56.

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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves Trends and Key Stats

• 4-1 is the record of Braves in their last five road games. They have also gone 5-0 vs. the runline.
• The Phillies, on the other hand, have played five home games recently, during which they have recorded a 3-2 (SU) and 2-3 record.
• The Phillies have a straight-up record of 6-4 in their last ten games as the favorite, and a 3-7 record vs. the runline.
• When playing as the underdog, the Braves have won 4-6 of their previous ten games straight-up, while going 6-4 against the runline.

The most recent game o of this Braves vs Phillies series came right down to the end, as the Braves picked up a 7-2 win. Heading into the game, they were at +118 on the money line.

Atlanta’s offense got off to a fast start in the game, scoring three runs in the first and adding two more in the 2nd. On the other side, the Phillies got on the board with two runs in the 4th but couldn’t get anything else against the Braves’ pitching staff.

Ranger Suarez only went four innings for the Phillies but gave up just two hits and two earned runs. Reynaldo Lopez put together a good outing for the Braves, getting the win after going six innings and giving up one earned run.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

With an overall record of 74-61, the Braves are five games behind the Phillies for the NL East lead. The Braves are 23-19 against other teams in the NL East. The Braves took the first game of this series but dropped the second game to the Phillies.

As the road team today, the Braves are 38-33 this season compared to 36-28 at home. Atlanta has been the favorite in most of their games, going 62-47 in those contests. They are also 12-14 when coming in as the underdog. Looking at their overall series record, the Braves are 23-15-5 and have won five straight series.

When the Braves are on the road, they are a solid run line bet, going 38-33 overall and 7-0 in their last seven games. They are 16-10 as underdogs and have an average run differential of +1.0 on the road. In their wins, they are winning by an average of 3.6 runs per game, while in their losses, they are losing by an average of 3.3 runs per game.

The Braves are on the road today against the Phillies, and the over/under line for the game is set at 8 runs. The combined run average in Braves games this season is 8.2, and their over/under record is 51-79. The average over/under line for their games is also 8 runs. When the line is set at 8 runs, their over/under record is 8-13-1. Overall, 58.5% of their games have had over/under lines set at over 8 runs, and their current over streak is at 2 games.

Max Fried will be looking to build off his last outing, where he picked up the win vs. the Twins. In that start, he went five innings and gave up three runs, with one of them being earned. Looking at his overall numbers, Fried has a record of 8-7 and an ERA of 3.50. Out of his 23 starts, Fried has turned in 11 quality starts, two complete games, and one shutout. For the season, he has a BB/9 figure of 3.1 compared to 8.48 strikeouts per nine innings. Fried’s ERA on the road is 5.74, and he has a record of 6-4 away from home.

Marcell Ozuna has been one of the league’s top power hitters this season, as his 37 home runs are 4th in the league and the best mark on the Braves. He is also 3rd in the league with 98 RBIs. Ozuna comes into the game on a five-game hitting streak. Matt Olson has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 13/40 in his last 10 games with four homers and 14 RBIs.

As a team, the Braves are 4th in home runs and have the league’s 12th best team batting average at .242. Overall, they are averaging 4.3 runs per game, but that number is up to 4.7 on the road. Atlanta has been pretty good at avoiding strikeouts this season but is just 18th in walks.

With an overall record of 79-56, the Phillies lead the NL East by five games over the Braves. The Phillies took the first game of this series but dropped the second game and are 21-15 in divisional matchups this year. As the home team, they are 45-25 and have gone 34-31 on the road.

Philadelphia has been really good as the favorite this year, going 67-41, and they are 44-22 as the favorite at home. Their overall series record is 23-15-6, and they have won two straight series. Looking at their recent games, the Phillies are 6-4 over their last 10.

When the Phillies win, they win big, with an average run margin of +4.0. But when they lose, they lose big, with an average run margin of -3.7. Overall, they have a run line record of 65-70, with a run line record of 32-38 at home and 33-32 on the road. As the favorite, they are 51-57 against the run line, while as the underdog, they are 14-13.

Philadelphia’s games have averaged 8.9 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 63-65. When the over/under line is set at 8 runs, their record is 17-15-1. The over has hit in 49.6% of their games this season. The over has hit in two straight games.

Zack Wheeler gets the start for the Phillies today and comes in with a record of 12-6 and an ERA of 2.75. So far this year, he has made 26 starts, and opponents are batting .193 off the right-hander. Wheeler has turned in 20 quality starts this year and is averaging 9.86 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last outing, Wheeler finished with a no-decision, giving up two earned runs in six innings of work. Before that, he had won three straight starts. Wheeler’s ERA at home is 2.71 compared to 3.84 on the road.

Not only do the Phillies come into the game with the 3rd best home batting average in the league, but they are also 8th in the league in runs scored at 4.8 runs per game. Overall, they are batting .258, which is the 3rd best mark in the MLB. As a team, they are 10th in the league in home runs and have been very good at avoiding strikeouts this season.

Over his last nine games, Bryce Harper has gone 13/33 and has scored five runs. However, he has not hit a home run during this stretch. Kyle Schwarber has gone deep 28 times this season, which is 8th best in the league, but is hitting just .240 for the season. Schwarber’s 82 RBIs is 2nd on the team, and Alec Bohm is the Phillies’ top run producer, as he is 10th in the league with 89 RBIs.

Our prediction for today’s Braves vs. Phillies game is to take the Phillies on the money line at -146. We have the Phillies winning this one by a score of 5-4. Looking at the starting pitchers, our projections have Zack Wheeler finishing with five strikeouts compared to Max Fried with five as well.

Offensively, our projections have the Braves finishing with just nine hits, which ranks 15th in the league today. As for the Phillies, they are projected to finish with eight hits, and they rank 20th in the league in runs scored.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Betting Tips

• Take the Phillies on the moneyline
• On the run line we like the Braves (+1.5)
• Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over

Philadelphia Phillies Injury Report

Atlanta Braves Injury Report