Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Preview
At 6:40 PM ET, the Braves and Phillies will face off in an NL East matchup. This one is taking place at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, and the Phillies are the favorites on the money line (-149). The Braves have a money line odds of +125, and their three-game winning streak will be on the line. Charlie Morton is starting for the Braves, while the Phillies are going with Cristopher Sanchez.
Thursday’s forecast in Philadelphia calls for cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid-80s. NSPPH will be televising this one, and the over/under line is currently at 8.5 runs.
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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves Trends and Key Stats
- 5-0 is the record of Braves in their last five road games. They have also gone 5-0 vs. the runline.
- Conversely, the Phillies have achieved a 3-2 (SU) record and 2-3 record in their last five home games.
- Over their last ten games as the favorite, the Phillies have a straight-up record of 7-3, while going 4-6 against the runline.
- When playing as the underdog, the Braves have won 4-6 of their previous ten games straight-up, while going 5-5 against the runline.
Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Prediction
The Braves’s offense was hot right out of the gates in their most recent game vs. the Twins, closing out their series with a 5-1 win. After allowing one run to the Twins in the bottom of the first, the Braves responded with a run of their own and added another four runs in the 7th inning. Atlanta was the -141 favorite on the money line going into the game.
Chris Sale put together a good start for the Braves, going six innings and giving up just one earned run, and picking up the win. Atlanta’s offense was carried by Jorge Soler, who went 1/3 with a homer and three RBIs.
With an overall record of 73-60, the Braves are five games behind the Phillies for the NL East lead. The Braves will be on the road today to take on the Phillies, and they have won three straight games, which includes closing out their series with the Twins with a win. So far, they are 22-18 in divisional matchups.
As the road team, the Braves have gone 37-32 this season compared to a 36-28 mark at home. Atlanta has really excelled as the favorite this season, going 62-47, and they are 11-13 as the underdog. Looking at their overall series record, the Braves are 23-15-5 and have won five straight series.
When the Braves are on the road, they are a good bet against the run line, as they are 36-33. Their average run margin in those games is +1.0, and they have covered the run line in five straight games. They are 14-10 against the run line as an underdog this season.
The Braves are on the road against the Phillies today, and the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs. The combined run average in their games this season is 8.2 runs, and their over/under record is 49-79. The average over/under line in their games is 8 runs, and their record when the line is set at 8.5 runs is 12-22. So far this season, 44 of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs, accounting for 33.1% of their games.
Right-hander Charlie Morton gets the start for the Braves today as he faces the Phillies on the road. Morton has made 24 starts this season and has a record of 7-7 with an ERA of 4.24. Looking at his overall numbers, Morton has a WHIP of 1.30 and has turned in 10 quality starts. In his 24 appearances, Morton has a batting average allowed of .245 and is averaging 9.09 strikeouts per nine innings. Most recently, he finished with a no-decision against the Nationals, giving up two earned runs in 5 2/3 innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts.
Marcell Ozuna has been a force in the Braves lineup this season, as he is batting .309 with 37 home runs and 98 RBIs. His 98 RBIs are 3rd in the league, and his home run total is good for 4th in the MLB. Ozuna is also currently on a three-game hitting streak. Matt Olson is also a big power threat in the lineup, as he has 23 homers this season but is batting just .231.
As a team, the Braves are averaging 4.3 runs per game, which is 16th in the league. They have been a better offensive team on the road this season, averaging 4.7 runs per contest. Overall, they are the league’s 4th best home run-hitting team and have the 11th best team batting average in the MLB.
Heading into their last game vs. the Astros, the Phillies closed out the series with a 10-0 loss. Philadelphia was the slight favorite at +105 on the money line. Things really got away from the Phillies in the 4th inning, as the Astros scored five runs in the inning. Philadelphia’s offense scored their only three runs in the 2nd.
Taijuan Walker had a rough outing, giving up six earned runs on 13 hits and issuing three walks. The Phillies also only had three hits, all of which were singles. Jean Segura scored two of the Phillies runs and went 3 for 3 at the plate.
With a record of 78-55, the Phillies lead the NL East by five games over the Braves. The Phillies will host the Braves today, and they are 20-14 against other teams in the division. Philadelphia has won four straight games as the favorite, and they are 66-40 when favored this year.
At home, the Phillies are 44-24 this year and 34-31 on the road. Philadelphia has won two straight series, and their overall series record is 23-15-6. They are also 5-5 over their last 10 games and took two of three in their most recent series vs. the Astros.
When it comes to the run line, the Phillies have been a tough team to figure out this season. They are just 65-68 against the run line, but they have been slightly better at home, going 32-36. Their average run differential overall is +0.8 runs per game, but it jumps up to +1.2 runs per game at home. They have covered the run line in three straight games and are 51-55 on the run line as the favorite this season.
The Philadelphia Phillies are at home today, facing the Atlanta Braves. The over/under line for the game is set at 8.5 runs. The combined run average for Phillies games this season is 8.9 runs, and their over/under record is 61-65. When the over/under line has been set at 8.5 runs, the Phillies have gone 11-13. Overall, 31.6% of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs or higher.
Left-hander Cristopher Sánchez gets the start for the Phillies today as he faces the Braves at home. He has made 25 starts this season and has a record of 9-9 with a 3.51 ERA. Sánchez’s WHIP for the season is 1.27, and opponents are batting .257 off him this year. In his 25 starts, Sánchez has turned in 14 quality starts, two complete games, and one shutout. The last time he pitched, Sánchez gave up three earned runs in six innings of work and took the loss. Before that, he had won two straight starts.
Philadelphia comes into today’s game as one of the best offensive teams in the league, averaging 4.9 runs per game, which is 7th in the MLB. They have been even better at home, putting up 5.2 runs per contest. The Phillies have been one of the league’s best home run hitting teams this season and are also near the top of the league in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging.
Over his last seven games, J.T. Realmuto has gone 10/25 with two homers and nine RBIs. This has pushed his season average to .291. Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper have been two of the league’s top power hitters this season, with Schwarber’s 28 homers leading the team and Harper’s 26 long balls coming in as the 2nd most in the league.
Our predicted score for this matchup is 5-4 in favor of the Phillies, and with them having a money line of -149, this is the way we recommend playing this one. Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Christopher Sanchez ending the day with five strikeouts, and for Charlie Morton, we have him finishing with seven.
Offensively, we have the Phillies finishing with nine hits compared to the Braves with eight. If you’re looking for a parlay, you could look to the over/under line, which is sitting at 8.5 runs. We have this one going under, as we have the Phillies winning and the final score being 5-4.
Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Betting Tips
- Take the Phillies on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Braves (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over
Philadelphia Phillies Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Luis F. Ortiz | Out | Forearm |
| Spencer Turnbull | Out | Lat |
| José Alvarado | Out | Personal |
| José Rodríguez | Out | Suspension |
Atlanta Braves Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Ozzie Albies | Out | Wrist |
| A.J. Minter | Out | Hip |
| Austin Riley | Out | Hand |
| Huascar Ynoa | Out | Elbow |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | Out | Knee |
| Angel Perdomo | Out | Elbow |
| Ray Kerr | Out | Elbow |
| Spencer Strider | Out | Elbow |
