New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction & Betting Tips 9/28/2024

New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates Preview

The over/under line for Saturday’s Pirates vs. Yankees interleague matchup is at 7.5 runs, with the under paying out at -120 compared to -101 for the over. This one is getting started at 1:05 PM ET from Yankee Stadium in New York, and the Yankees are the heavy favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at -134. The Pirates are +114.

Paul Skenes is starting for the Pirates, and he is facing off against Luis Gil for the Yankees. The Pirates are 75-85, putting them 5th in the NL Central, while the Yankees are 93-67 and are 1st in the AL East. MLBN is carrying this one on TV.

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New York Yankees vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Trends and Key Stats

• The Pirates are 3-2 in their five most recent road games, including a 3-2 runline record.
• The Yankees, on the other hand, have played five home games recently, during which they have recorded a 4-1 (SU) and 4-1 record.
• Over their last ten games as the favorite, the Yankees have a straight-up record of 7-3, while going 6-4 against the runline.
• Over their previous ten games as the underdog, the Pirates have a straight-up record of 4-6 and a 4-6 record vs. the runline.

Pittsburgh picked up a 4-2 road win over the Yankees in the most recent game of this series. The Pirates offense got off to a fast start, scoring three runs in the first and adding their final run in the 2nd. On the other side, the Yankees got on the board with two runs in the 5th.

Jared Jones only went 4 1/3 innings for the Pirates but gave up just two hits and two earned runs. He finished the game with seven strikeouts but issued two walks. Carmen Mlodzinski got the win out of the bullpen, and Aroldis Chapman got the save.

Bryan Reynolds and Nick Gonzales each homered for the Pirates, while Jazz Chisholm Jr. went 2/4 with two RBIs for the Yankees.

New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

The Pirates are 75-85 overall and trail the Brewers by 17 games in the NL Central. So far, they have gone 25-27 against other teams in the NL Central. Pittsburgh is on a two-game road winning streak, and they are 36-43 on the road this year.

As the underdog, the Pirates have gone 41-57 this year compared to 34-28 as the favorite. Pittsburgh has an overall series record of 20-25-6 this year, and they have dropped four straight series overall. Their overall record is 4-6 heading into today’s game vs. the Yankees.

The Pirates have been a solid bet against the run line this season, going 85-75 overall. They have been especially profitable on the road, where they are 46-33 against the run line. Their average run margin on the season is -0.5, but they have been able to cover the run line in their last two road games. They have been a better bet as the underdog, going 61-37 against the run line in those games.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are on the road against the New York Yankees, with today’s over/under line set at 7.5 runs. The combined run average for Pirates games this season is 8.6 runs per game, and their over/under record is 76-82. When the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs, the Pirates have gone over 13 times and under 21 times. Overall, 71.9% of their games this season have had over/under lines set higher than 7.5 runs. The under has hit in their last three games.

Pittsburgh is sending right-hander Paul Skenes to the mound today vs. the Yankees. He has made 22 starts this season and has a record of 11-3. Skenes’ ERA is an impressive 1.99, along with a WHIP of .96. Out of his 22 starts, he has turned in 15 quality starts and is averaging 11.47 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last outing, Skenes pitched five scoreless innings, picking up the win. Before that, he had given up at least one earned run in three straight outings. Skenes has been much better on the road, coming in with a 1.35 ERA compared to 2.72 at home.

So far this season, the Pirates are averaging 4.1 runs per game, which is 24th in the league. They have been slightly better at home, averaging 4.2 runs per game. As a team, they are batting just .235, which is 13th in the league, and are also near the bottom of the league in both home runs and slugging percentage.

Over his last eight games, Bryan Reynolds has gone 7/33, but he has just two homers and three RBIs in that stretch. Oneil Cruz and Bryan De La Cruz are tied for 2nd on the team with 21 homers, but Bryan De La Cruz is hitting just .233 this season. Oneil Cruz has also struggled of late, going just 4/26 in his last nine games.

The Yankees are 93-67 overall and lead the AL East by four games over the Orioles. New York is 26-26 in divisional games this year. They are looking to bounce back in the series vs. the Pirates after dropping game one. Currently, they have won three straight series on the road.

At home, the Yankees are 43-36 this year and 50-31 on the road. As the favorite, the Yankees are 75-59 this year and 18-8 as the underdog. New York’s overall series record is 30-17-4 this year.

The Yankees have a run line record of 83-77 this season, with a run differential of +0.9 runs per game. They have been a better bet on the run line on the road, going 49-32, compared to 34-45 at home. As the favorite, they are 61-73 on the run line, while as the underdog, they are 22-4.

When the New York Yankees play at home, the over/under line is typically set higher than 7.5 runs. In fact, 86.2% of their games this season have had higher over/under lines than 7.5 runs, with an average line of 8 runs. Their games have averaged 9.1 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 84-71 overall.

Luis Gil gets the start for the Yankees today and comes in with a record of 15-6 and an ERA of 3.27. So far, he has made 28 starts, and opponents are batting .180 this season. In his 28 appearances, Gil has turned in 10 quality starts and is averaging 10.23 strikeouts per nine innings. Looking back at his last outing, Gil went 5 1/3 innings, giving up four earned runs, and picking up the win. Before that, he had won three straight starts. Gil has been much better on the road, with a 3.84 ERA compared to 5.87 at home.

The Yankees have the league’s best home run total and are 3rd in the league in runs per game at 5. As a team, they are batting .249, which is 7th in the league, and have the best walk rate in the league. Aaron Judge has been a huge part of their offense, as he leads the league with 144 RBIs and has gone deep 58 times this season, which is also the best in the league. He is batting .325 for the season and has gone 6/12 with four homers in his last four games.

Overall, the Yankees offense has been very good at home, averaging 5 runs per game. They are also near the top of the league in on-base percentage, slugging, and OPS. Juan Soto has also been a big power threat for the Yankees, as he is 4th in the league with 41 homers and is 2nd on the team with 108 RBIs.

Our pick for this Yankees vs. Pirates matchup is to take the Yankees on the money line at -134. We have the Yankees winning this one by a final score of 5-4. With the over/under line sitting at 7.5 runs, we like the over, as there is some good value in taking the Yankees to win and the game to go over.

Looking at the starting pitchers, Luis Gil is projected to finish with six strikeouts compared to Paul Skenes with five. However, we have Gil finishing with a better ERA and picking up the win 8th best among today’s starters.

New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Tips

• Take the Yankees on the moneyline
• On the run line we like the Pirates (+1.5)
• Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over

New York Yankees Injury Report

Pittsburgh Pirates Injury Report