New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Prediction & Betting Tips 7/7/2024

New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Preview

The forecast from Yankee Stadium in New York, NY, calls for overcast skies and temperatures in the mid-90s. First pitch for Sunday’s Red Sox vs. Yankees matchup is set for 7:10 PM ET. ESPN is carrying TV coverage for the Red Sox and Yankees.

Currently, the Yankees are 55-36 and are favored on the money line for Sunday’s game at -154. The Red Sox are 48-40 overall and will be starting Kutter Crawford. Luis Gil is slated to start for the Yankees. In the AL East, the Red Sox are in 3rd, while the Yankees are in 2nd.

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New York Yankees Trends and Key Stats

• Across their last five road games, the Red Sox are 4-1. This includes going 3-2 vs. the runline.
• On the opposing side, the Yankees have a 2-3 (SU) record, along with a 2-3 record in their last five home contests.
• The Yankees have a straight-up record of 3-7 in their last ten games as the favorite, and a 3-7 record vs. the runline.
• When playing as the underdog, the Red Sox have won 8-2 of their previous ten games straight-up, while going 8-2 against the runline.

New York cruised to a 14-4 win over the Red Sox in the most recent game of this series. The Yankees had a huge 5th inning, scoring seven of their fourteen runs. As for the Red Sox, they scored their final run in the 5th and were held in check the rest of the game.

Gerrit Cole got the start for the Yankees, going just 4 1/3 innings while giving up four runs and striking out eight. Tim Hill came out of the bullpen and got the win. Josh Winckowski only went 3 2/3 innings for the Red Sox, giving up three earned runs on five hits.

Ben Rice was the Yankees’ top hitter, going 3/5 with three homers and seven RBIs. Both Alex Verdugo and DJ LeMahieu each had two hits for New York’s offense.

New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Boston is 48-40 overall and trails the Orioles by 7.5 games in the AL East. Currently, they are 3rd in the division and are 12-11 against other AL East teams. The Red Sox are on the road today, facing the Yankees, who are 2nd in the AL East, two games ahead of the Red Sox.

So far, the Red Sox have been good on the road, going 28-17 compared to 20-23 at home. As the road underdog, the Red Sox are 15-14 this year, and they are 26-18 as the favorite. Boston’s overall series record is 13-10-5, and they have won three straight series on the road.

When the Red Sox are on the road, they have been a solid bet to cover the run line, going 26-19. They have an average run margin of +1.3 on the road, and their average run differential in all games is +0.4. They have been a better run line bet as the underdog, going 26-18, compared to 15-29 as the favorite. Their average run differential in wins is +4.1, compared to -4.2 in losses.

Today’s over/under line of 8.5 runs is higher than the average line for Boston games this season, which has been set at 8 runs. The Red Sox have played 24 games this season with an over/under line of 8.5 runs, and the over has hit in 16 of those contests. Overall, Boston games have averaged 9.0 runs per game this season, and the over/under record for the Red Sox is 43-39.

Kutter Crawford gets the start for the Red Sox today as he faces the Yankees on the road. He has made 17 starts this season and has a record of 4-7 with a 3.47 ERA. So far, Crawford has turned in nine quality starts and is averaging 9.3 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last outing, he gave up just one earned run in six innings of work, picking up the win vs. the Marlins. Before that, he had given up at least three earned runs in three straight starts. Crawford has been much better on the road, coming in with a 2.66 ERA compared to 4.34 at home.

Over the past eight games, Jarren Duran has struggled a bit, going just 7/37 (.189) with three homers. This has dropped his season average to .278. However, he is 3rd on the team with 10 homers and is 3rd on the team with 40 RBIs. Rafael Devers has been hot of late, going 9/30 with three homers and 11 RBIs in this stretch. Devers is 1st on the team with 19 homers and is 15th in the league with 53 RBIs.

As a team, the Red Sox are 7th in batting average and are 7th in both on-base percentage and slugging. They are also the league’s top team in terms of batting average on balls in play. Overall, they are averaging 4.7 runs per game and have been even better on the road, averaging 5.1 runs per contest.

With an overall record of 55-36, the Yankees trail the Orioles by two games for the AL East lead. New York is 13-15 against other AL East teams this year. The Yankees have gone just 3-7 over their last 10 games and are currently tied with the Red Sox for 3rd place in the AL East.

At home, the Yankees are 25-18 this season and 30-18 on the road. As the favorite, the Yankees are 43-30 and 12-6 as the underdog. New York has an overall series record of 17-8-3, and they have lost four straight series at home.

When it comes to betting the run line, the Yankees have been a much better bet on the road this season, going 28-20 compared to 21-22 at home. They have a run differential of 1.1 runs per game overall, but that number jumps to 1.4 on the road and drops to 0.8 at home. As a favorite, they are just 35-38 against the run line, but as an underdog, they are 14-4.

The New York Yankees are playing at home against the Boston Red Sox today, and the over/under line for the game is set at 8.5 runs. The Yankees’ games have had an average of 9.1 runs scored per game this season, and their over/under record is 48-40. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, their record is 24-15. So far this season, 20 of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs, which accounts for 22.0% of their games.

Luis Gil gets the start for the Yankees today vs. the Red Sox and comes into the game with a record of 9-4 and an ERA of 3.41. This year, he has made 17 starts, seven of which were quality starts. Per nine innings, Gil is averaging 10.24 strikeouts and 4.82 walks. In his last outing, Gil gave up four earned runs in four innings of work vs. the Reds. He took the loss in that outing. Before that, he had lost two straight starts. The right-hander has given up at least one homer in three straight starts.

Heading into today’s game, the Yankees are the league’s top-scoring offense, averaging 5.1 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.4 runs per contest. New York is also one of the league’s top home run-hitting teams and are batting a collective .249, which is 8th in the MLB. The Yankees also have the league’s top home run hitter in Aaron Judge, who is also the league leader in RBIs. Judge has a team-high batting average of .312.

Over the team’s last nine games, Aaron Judge has gone 12/36 with two homers and six RBIs. Ben Rice has also been swinging a hot bat, going 9/28 with four homers and 11 RBIs over that same stretch. Rice is also on a three-game hitting streak, while Giancarlo Stanton has a 10-game streak going.

We are predicting that the Yankees will pick up a 6-5 win over the Red Sox. With the money line sitting at -154, this is the best way to play this game, as we have the over/under at 8.5 runs, and we see this game going over.

Looking at the starting pitchers, Luis Gil has the fourth-best chance among starters to pick up a win, and we have him finishing with six strikeouts. As for Kutter Crawford, we have him ending the game with four K’s and finishing with the highest ERA among today’s starters.

New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Betting Tips

• Take the Yankees on the moneyline
• On the run line we like the Red Sox (+1.5)
• Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over

New York Yankees Injury Report

Boston Red Sox Injury Report