New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Preview
There is a chance for rain in New York on Monday, where the Nationals and Mets will face off at Citi Field. First pitch is currently scheduled for 7:10 PM ET. MLBN will be televising this NL East matchup.
The Mets are heavy favorites on the money line, with their odds sitting at -182 compared to the Nationals at +153. Monday’s over/under line is at 7.5 runs, and Jake Irvin is starting for the Nationals, while the Mets are going with Sean Manaea. Washington is 68-81, and the Mets are 81-68 and have lost two straight.
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New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals Trends and Key Stats
- 2-3 is the record of Nationals in their last five road games. They have also gone 2-3 vs. the runline.
- On the other side, the Mets have gone 2-3 (SU) and 3-2 in their previous five home contests.
- In their last ten games as the favorite, the Mets have a record of 7-3 straight-up, and have gone 6-4 against the runline.
- Looking at the Nationals’ previous ten games as the underdog they are 4-6 straight-up and 5-5 vs. the runline.
New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Prediction
Washington’s offense was hot right out of the gates in their most recent game vs. the Marlins, closing out their series with a 4-3 win. After allowing one run to the Marlins in the top of the 3rd, the Nationals responded with two runs of their own. Washington went on to add another two runs in the 4th inning.
MacKenzie Gore put together a good start for the Nationals, going six innings and not giving up a run. He also issued just two walks and struck out five Marlins batters. James Wood was hot at the plate, going 2/3 with two homers.
Washington is 68-81 overall this season, and they are 4th in the NL East, 22 games behind the Phillies for the division lead. So far, they are 23-23 in divisional matchups. The Nationals have won three straight games, and they took their most recent series vs. the Marlins 3-1.
At home, the Nationals are 36-39 compared to 32-42 on the road. As the underdog, Washington is 53-68 this season and 15-13 as the favorite. Their overall series record is 19-22-6, and they will begin their series vs. the Mets today.
Washington has been a solid bet on the run line this season, going 83-66 overall. They have been especially good on the road, going 43-31. They have been a better bet as the underdog, going 70-51. Their average run margin is -0.5 runs per game.
The Nationals are on the road against the Mets today, with the Over/Under line set at 7.5 runs. Washington’s games have averaged 8.9 runs per game this season, and their O/U record is 70-73. The average O/U line in their games is 9 runs, and when the line is set at 7.5 runs, their O/U record is 16-9. Overall, 81.9% of their games have had higher O/U lines than 7.5 runs, and their current O/U streak is 3 games to the under.
Jake Irvin will be looking to build off his last outing, where he faced the Braves and picked up the win. In that September 11th outing, he went 6 innings and gave up just 1 earned run. Looking at his overall numbers, Irvin has made 30 starts, and his record for the season is 10-12. The right-hander’s ERA is 4.19, along with a WHIP of 1.19. For the year, he has allowed 26 home runs and is averaging 7.59 strikeouts per nine innings. Irvin has made 18 appearances on the road, going 7-4 with a 4.23 ERA.
For the season, the Nationals are averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 22nd in the MLB. They have been a bit better on the road, averaging 4.3 runs per game. Overall, they are 13th in batting average, but have the league’s 25th home run total. Washington’s offense is also near the bottom of the league in terms of walks and isolated power.
Both CJ Abrams and Luis García Jr. are tied for the team lead in RBIs, with 65, and Abrams also leads the team with 20 homers. Over his last six games, James Wood has two homers and is 6/22 (.273), while José Tena has gone 8/23 in his last six games.
The Mets will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Phillies with a 2-1 loss. This was especially tough, as they held a lead going into the 8th inning before the Phillies scored a run in the bottom of the 8th. New York was the +114 underdog on the road going into this game.
David Peterson was excellent for the Mets, going 7 2/3 innings and giving up just one earned run while striking out six. However, the Mets couldn’t close things out, and Edwin Diaz took the loss out of the bullpen. The Mets also wasted a big game from Tyrone Taylor, who homered in the 2nd inning, going 1/3.
The Mets will take on the Nationals at home today with an overall record of 81-68, which has them nine games behind the Phillies for the NL East lead. New York lost the final two games of their series with the Phillies, taking the series 2-1. So far, they are 23-19 in the division this year.
At home, the Mets are 40-34 this year, and they are above .500 at 41-34 on the road. As the favorite, the Mets have gone 53-37 this year, and they are 28-31 as the underdog. The Mets’ overall series record is 25-17-8, and they are coming off a series win over the Phillies.
When betting the run line on the Mets this season, it’s been a coin flip. They’ve covered the run line in 75 of their 149 games, with a +0.4 average run margin. They’ve been slightly better on the road, covering at a 42-33 clip, compared to 33-41 at home. They’ve been a better bet as the underdog, covering at a 35-24 clip, compared to 40-50 as the favorite. In their wins, they’ve covered the run line by an average of 3.7 runs, while in their losses, they’ve failed to cover by an average of 3.4 runs.
The Mets have played in 105 games with over/under lines higher than 7.5 runs this season, which accounts for 70.5% of their games. Their games have averaged 9.1 runs per game, and their over/under record is 74-70 on the season. The over/under line for today’s game against the Nationals is set at 7.5 runs.
Left-hander Sean Manaea gets the start for the Mets today as he faces the Nationals at home. He has made 29 starts this season and has a record of 11-5 with a 3.35 ERA. Manaea’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.10, and opponents are batting .195 off him this year. In his last outing, Manaea finished with a no-decision, going 6 2/3 innings and giving up one earned run on eight hits. Before that, he had won two straight starts. Manaea didn’t give up a homer in any of those three outings.
Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso have been a great 1-2 punch for the Mets this season, as they have combined for 63 home runs and 167 RBIs. Lindor is batting .271 for the season and comes into the game on a four-game hitting streak. Alonso is hitting .241 for the season and has gone deep 32 times, which is 8th in the majors.
As a team, the Mets are 5th in home runs and are 8th in scoring at 4.8 runs per game. Overall, they are batting .247, which is 11th in the league. New York’s offense has been pretty consistent, as they are averaging 4.9 runs per game on the road and 4.6 runs per game at home.
Our prediction for this Nationals vs. Mets matchup is to take the Mets to win at home, but at -182, we are recommending taking the over on the 7.5 run line. Our predicted final score is 5-4 in favor of the Mets, giving us some room to take the over.
If you’re looking for a starting pitcher to pick up the win, we have Sean Manaea’s chances of getting a win rated higher than Jake Irvin. Manaea is projected to finish with five strikeouts, which is higher than what we have for Irvin.
New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Betting Tips
- Take the Mets on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Nationals (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over
New York Mets Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | Questionable | Forearm |
| Brooks Raley | Out | Elbow |
| Francisco Lindor | Questionable | Back |
| Jeff McNeil | Out | Wrist |
| Paul Blackburn | Out | Back |
| Sean Reid-Foley | Out | Shoulder |
| Drew Smith | Out | Elbow |
| Kodai Senga | Out | Calf |
| Ronny Mauricio | Out | Knee |
| Dedniel Núñez | Out | Forearm |
| Christian Scott | Out | Elbow |
| Christopher Larez | Out | Personal |
Washington Nationals Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Trevor Williams | Out | Hip Flexor |
| Alex Call | Out | Foot/Ankle |
| Mason Thompson | Out | Elbow |
| Josiah Gray | Out | Elbow |
| Joan Adon | Out | Shoulder/Biceps |
| CJ Abrams | Questionable | Shoulder |
| Cade Cavalli | Out | Elbow |
