New York Mets vs San Diego Padres Preview
First pitch for Saturday’s matchup between the Padres and Mets is set for 4:10 PM ET from Citi Field in New York, NY. The Mets are currently on a three-game winning streak and are 31-37 overall, while the Padres are 37-36 and are 2nd in the NL West.
New York comes into the game as the slight money line favorite, with the odds sitting at -118 compared to the Padres at +100. Saturday’s over/under line is sitting at 8.5 runs, and the forecast in New York calls for clear skies and temperatures in the mid-70s. Jose Quintana will start for the Mets, while the Padres are sending Adam Mazur to the mound.
Check out BetCoco for New York Mets – San Diego Padres odds
New York Mets Trends and Key Stats
- 0-5 is the record of Padres in their last five road games. They have also gone 1-4 vs. the runline.
- The Mets, on the other hand, have played five home games recently, during which they have recorded a 4-1 (SU) and 3-2 record.
- Over their last ten games as the favorite, the Mets have a straight-up record of 5-5, while going 3-7 against the runline.
- Looking back at their last ten games as the underdog, the Padres have a 5-5 straight-up record and a 7-3 record vs. the runline.
New York picked up a 2-1 win over the Padres in the most recent game of this series. The Mets had a two-run 3rd inning, and the Padres scored their only run in the 5th. Heading into the game, the Mets were favored at -115 on the money line.
Sean Manaea started for the Mets and picked up the win, going five innings and giving up just one run. He finished the game with seven strikeouts but issued five walks. As for the Padres, Matt Waldron got the start and took the loss, giving up two earned runs in seven innings of work.
Brandon Nimmo and J.D. Martinez were the only two Mets hitters to have more than one hit. Nimmo, Martinez, Jackson Merrill, and Jurickson Profar each had one RBI for the Mets’ offense.
New York Mets vs San Diego Padres Prediction
San Diego is 37-36 overall this season, and they are seven games behind the Dodgers in the NL West. The Padres lost the first game of their series vs. the Mets, and their overall division record is 14-15 this year. At home, the Padres are 18-21 and have gone 19-15 on the road.
As the road underdog, the Padres have put together an 11-8 record this season. They have dropped five straight on the road, and overall, their series record is 13-8-3. San Diego is also 24-22 as the favorite and 13-14 when going into a game as the underdog.
San Diego has been a profitable team to bet on the run line this season, as they are 38-35 overall. They have been especially good on the road, going 25-9 ATS. The Padres are 19-8 ATS as an underdog and have covered the run line in four straight games when getting points. Their average run differential in wins is +3.8, while it is -3.2 in losses.
The Padres are on the road taking on the Mets today, and the over/under line for the game is set at 8.5 runs. San Diego’s games have averaged 8.6 runs per game this season, and their overall over/under record is 36-36. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, the Padres’ record is 8-8. So far this season, 61.6% of their games have had lower over/under lines than 8.5 runs.
Adam Mazur will be making his third start of the season for the Padres, and he will be on the road to face the Mets. In his first start, Mazur took the loss against the Diamondbacks, going just 3 innings and allowing 8 runs. He did have a better outing in his second start, going 6 innings and only giving up 1 run.
So far this season, the Padres have been the best hitting team in the league, with a team batting average of .261. They have also been very good at avoiding strikeouts, as their 6 strikeouts per game is the 5th best mark in the league. San Diego’s offense has been even better on the road, averaging 4.9 runs per game.
Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jake Cronenworth are both among the league leaders in RBIs, with 45 apiece. Tatis Jr. is also 8th in the league with 13 home runs. However, he has gone just 6/28 in his last seven games. Jurickson Profar has been the Padres’ top power threat, with 10 homers, and is batting .326 for the season.
The Mets are 31-37 overall, putting them 4th in the NL East, 15.5 games behind the Phillies for the division lead. They are 11-10 against other teams in the NL East. New York has won three straight games, and they are 7-3 over their last 10 games. At home, the Mets are 16-23 this season.
As the home favorite, the Mets are 13-13 this season and 18-17 as the favorite overall. They have gone 13-20 as the underdog. New York has won two straight series and have an overall series record of 9-12-3 this year.
The Mets have been a tough team to bet on this season, as they are just 30-38 against the run line. They have been a better bet on the road, going 18-11, compared to just 12-27 at home. They have been a better bet as the underdog, going 18-15, compared to just 12-23 as the favorite. Their average run margin is -0.4 runs per game, and they have been outscored by an average of 0.8 runs per game at home.
The Mets have been involved in high-scoring games this season, as their combined run average is 9.1. Their over/under record is 34-32, and they have gone over the total in 8 of 14 games when the line has been set at 8.5 runs. Overall, 58.8% of their games have had lower lines than today’s 8.5-run total, and they are currently on a two-game under streak.
Jose Quintana gets the start for the Mets today and will be looking to bounce back from a short outing vs. the Phillies. In that start, he went just 3 2/3 innings, giving up three earned runs, six hits, and two homers. He finished with a no-decision in the outing. Looking back further, Quintana has made 13 starts and has a record of 1-5 with a 5.29 ERA. Opponents are batting .273 off Quintana this year. The left-hander has made three quality starts this year and is averaging 5.97 strikeouts per nine innings.
Heading into today’s game, the Mets are averaging 4.4 runs per game, which is 14th in the league. However, they have been a better offense on the road, averaging 5.5 runs per game. New York’s offense is also near the top of the league in home runs and have a team batting average of .240. The Mets have three players with at least 32 RBIs, with Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, and Brandon Nimmo all having gone deep 14 times this season.
Starling Marte has been swinging a hot bat for the Mets, going 7/17 in his last five games. For the season, he is batting .286. Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, and Brandon Nimmo are all tied for the team lead in RBIs, but all three players are hitting below .240 for the season. Lindor is just 4/24 in his last six games.
We are in agreement with your pick for this game, as we also have the Padres coming out on top. With the money line sitting at +100, this is the best way to play this game, as we have the Padres winning this one by a score of 5-4.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Adam Mazur finishing with five strikeouts compared to Jose Quintana with five. However, Quintana is projected to go just five innings, while Mazur is projected to go seven.
Offensively, the Mets are projected to finish with eight hits compared to the Padres with 10. However, the Mets are projected to finish with more home runs, with the Mets finishing with seven and the Padres with just six.
New York Mets vs San Diego Padres Betting Tips
- We like the Padres on the moneyline (+100)
- The Padres are also our pick on the spread at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over
New York Mets Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Brooks Raley | Out | Elbow |
| Kodai Senga | Out | Shoulder |
| Shintaro Fujinami | Out | Shoulder |
| Ronny Mauricio | Out | Knee |
| Christopher Larez | Out | Personal |
San Diego Padres Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Xander Bogaerts | Out | Shoulder |
| Yu Darvish | Out | Groin |
| Joe Musgrove | Out | Elbow |
| Jay Groome | Out | Suspension |
| Luis Patiño | Out | Elbow |
| Glenn Otto | Out | Shoulder |
