New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction & Betting Tips 9/21/2024

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Preview

From Citi Field in New York, we have the Phillies and Mets facing off in an NL East matchup. The Phillies are 92-62 and they are starting Ranger Suarez. The Mets are 85-69 and will have Sean Manaea on the mound.

Philadelphia is currently 1st in the NL East, while the Mets are 2nd. The money line odds have the Phillies at -108 compared to the Mets at -109. Today’s over/under line is sitting at 7.5 runs, and the game will be televised on SNY.

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New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Trends and Key Stats

• Across their last five road games, the Phillies are 2-3. This includes going 2-3 vs. the runline.
• On the other side, the Mets have gone 2-3 (SU) and 3-2 in their previous five home contests.
• In the past ten games, when playing as the favorite, the Phillies have a record of 6-4, while as the underdog, they have a record of 4-6.
• 7-3 is the record of the Mets as the favorite, while their record as the underdog stands at 5-5.

Philadelphia cruised to a 12-2 win over the Mets in the most recent game of this series. The Phillies had a huge 4th inning, scoring six of their twelve runs. As for the Mets, they scored their only two runs in the 1st. Heading into the game, the Phillies were favored at -119.

Cristopher Sanchez only went five innings for the Phillies but gave up just two hits and two earned runs. He finished the game with seven strikeouts but issued five walks. On the other side, David Peterson was tagged for four homers and four runs in just 3 2/3 innings of work.

Alec Bohm and J.T. Realmuto each homered for the Phillies, while Nick Castellanos went 3/5 with two RBIs. Johan Rojas also had a two-hit game and drove in two runs while scoring once.

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

With an overall record of 92-62, the Phillies lead the NL East by seven games over the Mets. Philadelphia will be on the road for today’s game vs. the Mets, and they are 40-36 on the road this season. The Phillies have been good at home, going 52-26 at home.

Philadelphia has gone 28-22 as the road favorite this season and 79-45 when favored overall. The Phillies have an overall series record of 25-17-7 this season, and they are 6-4 over their last 10 games. The Phillies won the series opener vs. the Mets, but New York bounced back to take game two.

When the Phillies are favored, they are 59-65 on the run line. They are 16-14 as the underdog. Their average run margin is +0.8 runs per game. They are 75-79 overall on the run line. Their average run margin in winning games is +3.9 runs per game, and -3.8 runs per game in losing games. They have covered the run line in two straight games.

The Philadelphia Phillies are on the road today against the New York Mets. The O/U line for the game is set at 7.5 runs, which is lower than their combined season average of 8.9 runs per game. The Phillies have played 111 games this season with O/U lines set higher than 7.5 runs, which accounts for 72.1% of their games. Their O/U record for the season is 72-74, and their O/U record when the line is set at 7.5 runs is 14-16. The over has hit in their last two games.

Left-hander Ranger Suárez gets the start for the Phillies today as he faces the Mets on the road. He has made 25 starts this season and has a record of 12-7 with a 3.13 ERA. Suárez’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.14. In his 25 appearances, he has one complete game shutout and 11 quality starts. Looking back at his last outing, Suárez took the loss, giving up three earned runs in five innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts. Suárez has been much better on the road, coming in with a record of 7-5 and an ERA of 2.99 compared to 5-2 with a 3.83 ERA at home.

Heading into today’s game, the Phillies offense is 4th in the MLB in runs scored, averaging 4.9 runs per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 5 runs per contest. Overall, they are the league’s 4th best hitting team, with a batting average of .259. The Phillies are also among the league leaders in on-base percentage, slugging, and OPS.

Kyle Schwarber has been one of the league’s top power hitters this season, as his 35 homers lead the Phillies and are 8th in the majors. He is also 11th in the league with 98 RBIs. Schwarber is currently on a five-game hitting streak. Alec Bohm is batting .290 for the Phillies this season and is 2nd on the team with 94 RBIs. Bryce Harper is also having a strong season, batting .287 with 29 homers.

The Mets are seven games behind the Phillies in the NL East, and their overall record is 85-69 heading into today’s matchup vs. the Phillies. New York is 44-35 at home this season and 41-34 on the road. The Mets have an overall division record of 27-20 this year.

So far, the Mets have an overall series record of 27-15-8, and they are 57-37 as the favorite this year. As the underdog, the Mets are 28-32 this season. New York has dropped three straight games as the underdog, and they are 6-4 over their last 10 games overall.

When the Mets win, they win big, with an average run differential of 3.8 runs per game. That’s a big reason why they have a winning record against the run line this season, going 78-76 overall. They’ve been even better on the road, going 42-33 against the run line, compared to 36-43 at home. They’ve also been a better bet as the underdog, going 35-25 against the run line in those games.

The Mets are at home today against the Phillies, and the over/under line for the game is set at 7.5 runs. This season, the Mets have played to an over/under record of 78-71, and their games have averaged a combined 9.1 runs per game. When the over/under line has been set at 7.5 runs, their record is 20-16. Overall, 68.8% of their games have had higher over/under lines than today’s 7.5-run total, and the over has hit in each of their last four games.

Left-hander Sean Manaea gets the start for the Mets today as he faces the Phillies at home. He has made 30 starts this year and has a record of 11-5 with an ERA of 3.26. Opposing batters have hit just .194 off Manaea this year, and he has a total of 14 quality starts. Manaea’s ERA at home is 4.29 compared to 3.12 on the road. Looking back at his last outing, Manaea finished with a no-decision after giving up one earned run in seven innings of work. He only allowed one homer in that outing. Manaea has not taken a loss since August 21st.

Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso have been a big reason why the Mets have one of the league’s top offenses, as Alonso leads the team with 87 RBIs and is 9th in the league with 34 homers. Lindor is right behind him in the home run department, and his 86 RBIs are the 2nd most on the team. Lindor has also been a solid contact hitter for the Mets, batting .271 for the season.

Over the past 10 games, Jose Iglesias has gone 17/41 (.415) and is currently on a 14-game hitting streak. He has just one homer over that stretch but has scored 11 runs. Francisco Alvarez has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 4/9 with four homers in his last nine games.

Our predicted final score for this Phillies and Mets matchup is 6-5 in favor of the Mets. Given that they are the underdogs on the money line, there is a lot of value in picking them up to get the win at -109.

Looking at the starting pitchers, Sean Manaea is projected to finish with six strikeouts, which is good for seventh among starters. As for Ranger Suarez, he is projected to finish with five K’s, which is 19th among starters.

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Tips

• Take the Phillies on the moneyline
• On the run line we like Mets (+1.5)
• Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over

New York Mets Injury Report

Philadelphia Phillies Injury Report