New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Preview
Thursday’s matchup between the Phillies and Mets has a first pitch set for 7:15 PM ET from Citi Field in New York, NY. The money line odds have the Mets at -141 compared to the Phillies at +120. The over/under line is currently at 8 runs.
FOX will be televising this game, and the Phillies are 91-61, which has them in first in the NL East. The Mets have won three straight and are 84-68, and they are starting Luis Severino. Taijuan Walker will go for the Phillies.
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New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Trends and Key Stats
- The Phillies are 1-4 across their last five road games. They have gone 1-4 vs. the runline.
- In the Mets’ five most recent home games, their record stands at 2-3 (SU) with 3-2 against the spread.
- The Mets have a straight-up record of 7-3 in their last ten games as the favorite, and a 5-5 record vs. the runline.
- When playing as the underdog, the Phillies have won 5-5 of their previous ten games straight-up, while going 6-4 against the runline.
New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction
The Phillies will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Brewers with a 2-1 loss. This was especially tough, as they held a lead going into the 8th inning before the Brewers scored a run in the bottom of the 8th. Philadelphia was the -103 favorite on the money line going into the game.
Aaron Nola put together a good start for the Phillies, going seven innings and giving up just one earned run, and striking out nine. However, the Phillies couldnjson’t close things out, and Carlos Estévez took the loss out of the bullpen. The Phillies also wasted a big game from Alec Bohm, who homered in the 2nd inning, going 1/3.
With a record of 91-61, the Phillies lead the NL East by seven games over the Mets. This season, the Phillies have gone 27-18 against other teams in the NL East. The Phillies will be looking to pick up a win today, as they dropped two of three in their most recent series vs. the Brewers.
At home, the Phillies have been really good this year, going 52-26. On the road, they are just above .500, coming in with a record of 39-35. As the favorite, the Phillies are 78-45 this year, and they are 12-13 as the road underdog.
Philadelphia has been a solid bet on the run line this season, going 74-78 overall. They have been particularly strong on the road, where they are 39-35 against the run line. The Phillies are currently on a two-game run line win streak on the road and have covered the run line in two straight games as the underdog. Their average run margin in winning games is +3.9, while their average run margin in losing games is -3.8.
The Philadelphia Phillies are on the road today against the New York Mets, with the over/under line set at 8 runs. The combined run average in Phillies games this season is 8.9 runs per game, and their over/under record is 70-74. When the over/under line is set at 8 runs, their record is 17-18-2. So far this season, 73 of their games have had over/under lines set higher than 8 runs, accounting for 48.0% of their games. Their current under streak is at 2 games.
Taijuan Walker will be looking to pitch better than he did in his last outing, as he finished with a no-decision out of the bullpen. Against the Mets on September 14th, he went three innings and didn’t give up a run, but he did give up three hits and two walks. Walker has made 14 starts and two of them have been quality starts. His ERA for the season is 6.29, along with a record of 3-6. Overall, he has allowed 20 home runs. Walker’s ERA on the road is 7.9 compared to 5.64 at home.
Philadelphia comes into the game as one of the league’s top-scoring offenses, averaging 4.8 runs per game. They have been especially good at home, where they are averaging 5 runs per contest. As a team, the Phillies are batting .258, which is the 4th best mark in the league, and they also have the 4th best on-base percentage in the league. One of the reasons they have been so good offensively is that they are one of the league’s best teams at avoiding strikeouts.
Over his last 10 games, Bryce Harper has been swinging a hot bat, going 13/38 with three homers. This has pushed his season average to .288, and he is 2nd on the team with 84 RBIs. Kyle Schwarber is the team’s leading home run hitter, with 35 homers, which is the 7th best mark in the league. Schwarber is also on a three-game hitting streak.
Luisangel Acuna had a big game at the plate for the Mets in their 10-0 win over the Nationals to close out their series. The Mets really broke things open with a nine-run 4th inning. Looking at the betting lines going into the game, the Mets were at -173 at home.
Jose Quintana started for the Mets, going seven innings and didn’t give up a run. He also issued just two walks and struck out four Nationals batters. New York’s offense was carried by Luisangel Acuna, who went 2/4 with a homer and two RBIs.
The Mets are seven games behind the Phillies in the NL East as they host the Phillies today. New York is 84-68 overall and has won three straight games, and they closed out their series vs. the Nationals with a three-game winning streak. So far, they have gone 26-19 in divisional games.
At home, the Mets are 43-34 this year and have gone 41-34 on the road. New York has been favored in 93 of their games, going 56-37 in those games. As for their record as the underdog, they are 28-31 this year. The Mets’ overall series record is 27-15-8, and they are 6-4 over their last 10 games.
The Mets have been a solid run line bet this season, going 77-75 overall. They’ve been slightly better on the road, going 42-33, compared to 35-42 at home. They’ve been favored in 93 of their games, going 42-51 on the run line in those contests. They’ve been an underdog in 59 games, going 35-24 on the run line in those matchups. Their average run differential in wins is +3.8, while it’s -3.4 in losses.
The Mets are at home today against the Phillies, and the over/under line for the game is set at 8 runs. The combined run average in Mets games this season is 9.1 runs, and their over/under record is 76-71. When the over/under line has been set at 8 runs this season, the Mets have gone over the total 14 times, under 9 times, and pushed once. Overall, 53.3% of their games have had over/under lines set at over 8 runs, and their over streak is at 2 games.
Luis Severino gets the start for the Mets today and comes in with a record of 10-6 and an ERA of 3.77. So far this year, he has made 29 starts, and opponents are batting .229 off the right-hander. In his 29 appearances, Severino has turned in 13 quality starts, one shutout, and one complete game. Looking back at his last outing, Severino finished with a no-decision, giving up three earned runs in six innings of work. Before that, he had gone 7 innings in back-to-back outings, giving up a combined two earned runs in those starts.
Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso have been two of the Mets’ top power threats this season, as Alonso’s 33 homers are the best on the team and 9th in the league, while Lindor has gone deep 31 times. Lindor is also the team’s leading hitter, batting .271 for the season. Over his last 10 games, Jose Iglesias has been on fire, going 15/38, and he is also on a 12-game hitting streak.
Overall, the Mets are 5th in home runs and are 6th in the league in scoring at 4.8 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 4.9 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting .248, which is 8th in the league.
Based on the money line, we see the Phillies picking up a win today over the Mets with a final score of 6-5. At +120, we see this as a great payout for a team that we have winning outright.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Taijuan Walker going seven innings and picking up five strikeouts. As for Luis Severino, we have him going six innings and also finishing with five K’s.
New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Tips
- We like the Phillies on the moneyline (+120)
- The Phillies are also our pick on the spread at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
New York Mets Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Brooks Raley | Out | Elbow |
| Francisco Lindor | Questionable | Back |
| Jeff McNeil | Out | Wrist |
| Paul Blackburn | Out | Back |
| Sean Reid-Foley | Out | Shoulder |
| Drew Smith | Out | Elbow |
| Kodai Senga | Out | Calf |
| Ronny Mauricio | Out | Knee |
| Dedniel Núñez | Out | Forearm |
| Christian Scott | Out | Elbow |
| Christopher Larez | Out | Personal |
Philadelphia Phillies Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Luis F. Ortiz | Out | Forearm |
| Spencer Turnbull | Out | Lat |
| Austin Hays | Out | Kidney |
| Rodolfo Castro | Out | Thumb |
| José Rodríguez | Out | Suspension |
