New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Preview
The Phillies and Mets are set to face off in an NL East matchup at 1:10 PM ET at Citi Field in New York. The forecast for Tuesday’s game calls for clear skies and temperatures in the upper 50s. Philadelphia is 29-13 this season, while the Mets are 19-21 overall. José Buttó is slated to start for the Mets, and he will be facing off against Aaron Nola for the Phillies.
Philadelphia is the money line favorite heading into the game, with their odds sitting at -140 compared to the Mets at +118. The over/under line is currently at 8 runs, and this game can be seen on SNY.
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New York Mets Trends and Key Stats
- The Phillies are 4-1 across their last five road games. They have gone 2-3 vs. the runline.
- On the opposing side, the Mets have a 2-3 (SU) record, along with a 2-3 record in their last five home contests.
- In their last ten games as the favorite, the Phillies have a straight-up record of 8-2 and a runline record of 5-5.
- Over their last ten games as the underdog, the Mets have gone 5-5 vs. the runline and 5-5 straight-up.
Philadelphia rallied for two runs in the 9th inning in the most recent game of this Phillies vs Mets series. The Phillies scored one run in the 1st inning but didn’t score another run until putting up two in the top of the 9th, picking up a 5-4 win. Heading into the game, the Phillies were at -106 on the money line.
Mets starter Sean Manaea only went six innings but gave up just one run and one hit. He finished with six strikeouts but issued one walk. As for the Phillies, Cristopher Sanchez got the start and went just 5 2/3 innings, giving up three runs and striking out five.
Bryson Stott and Edmundo Sosa each had two hits and two RBIs for the Phillies’ offense. J.D. Martinez did all he could for the Mets, going 3/4 with two RBIs.
New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction
Philadelphia is on the road today vs. the Mets, and they lead the NL East by two games over the Braves. The Phillies are 29-13 overall and have gone 6-4 in divisional matchups. The Phillies have won three straight road games and are 8-2 in their last ten games overall.
So far, the Phillies have been the favorite in most of their games, where they are 24-10. As the road favorite, the Phillies have gone 10-5 this year. They have been really good in night games, going 18-6 this year.
When the Phillies win, they win big. Their average run margin in victories is 3.8 runs per game, while their run line record in those games is 22-20. Their average run margin overall is 1.5 runs per game, and their run line record is 22-20. They are 12-8 against the run line on the road, where they are outscoring opponents by 1.6 runs per game.
The Philadelphia Phillies have an over/under record of 21-19 for the season, and the average over/under line for their games is 8 runs. When the over/under line is set at 8 runs, the Phillies have gone over in 10 of 13 games. Overall, the combined run average in their games this season is 8.9 runs per game. Their over streak is at 4 games, and their games have had over/under lines set at 8 runs in 33.3% of their games.
Right-hander Aaron Nola gets the start for the Phillies today as he faces the Mets on the road. He has made a total of eight starts this year and has a record of 4-2 to go along with a 3.67 ERA. Nola’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.20. Looking back at his last outing, Nola took the loss, going 5 2/3 innings and giving up four earned runs on seven hits. Before that, he had picked up the win in three straight starts. Nola has been much better on the road, coming in with a 3-0 record and 2.12 ERA compared to 1-2 with a 5.36 ERA at home.
As a team, the Phillies are averaging 5.2 runs per game, which is 2nd in the league. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.4 runs per game. Overall, they are the league’s 5th ranked home run hitting team and have the 3rd best team batting average in the league. Philadelphia has been very good at avoiding strikeouts this season and have the 2nd best on-base percentage in the league.
Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber are tied for the team lead with nine home runs apiece, with Harper batting .259 and Schwarber hitting just .216. However, Schwarber has been hot of late, going deep three times in his last eight games, while Harper has also hit three homers in this stretch and is batting .344.
The Mets are 19-21 overall and trail the Phillies by nine games in the NL East. So far, they are 3-4 in divisional games. New York is coming off a series loss to the Marlins and are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
At home, the Mets are 10-13 this year compared to 9-8 on the road. As the home underdog, the Mets have gone just 1-4 this year, and they are 8-11 as the underdog overall. New York has dropped two straight games as the underdog.
When the Mets are favored, they have been a poor bet against the run line this season, going just 8-13. However, when they are the underdog, they have been a solid bet at 11-8. New York has a run line record of 19-21 overall, with an average run margin of 0.0 runs per game. Their average run differential in wins is +3.1, while in losses it is -2.8.
The Mets have seen their fair share of high-scoring games this season, as their games have averaged 8.6 runs per game. Their over/under record for the season is 19-21, and when the over/under line has been set at 8 runs, they are 3-4. Overall, 37.5% of their games have had over/under lines set at 8 runs, while 45% of their games have had lower lines.
José Buttó is getting the start for the Mets today and comes in with a record of 1-2 and ERA of 3.00. So far, he has made three quality starts and is averaging 9.27 strikeouts per nine innings. Buttó most recently faced the Phillies on May 7th, where he picked up the win, going five innings and giving up three earned runs. In that outing, he gave up one homer. The right-hander has given up a homer in three straight outings. Overall, he has allowed three homers. Buttó has a record of 0-2 at home and 1-0 on the road.
So far this season, the Mets are averaging 4.3 runs per game, which is 15th in the league. However, they have been much better on the road, averaging 5.5 runs per game. As a team, they are batting just .235, which is 17th in the league. Pete Alonso comes into the game with a team-high 22 RBIs, and his nine home runs are 5th best in the league.
Brandon Nimmo has been swinging the bat well for the Mets, going 5/19 over his last six games with three homers. For the season, he is batting just .227, but his OBP of .374 is 3rd on the team. Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso are also coming off strong six-game stretches, with Lindor hitting .381 and Alonso at .381.
Our prediction for today’s Phillies vs. Mets game is to take the Mets on the money line at +118. With this payout, you could also look to take the Mets on the run line, as we have the final score at 5.1 to 4 in favor of the Mets.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Aaron Nola finishing with five strikeouts, which is the ninth fewest among starters today. As for the Mets starter, José Buttó, we have him finishing with six strikeouts, which is the eighth most.
New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Tips
- We like the Mets on the moneyline (+118)
- On the run line we like Mets (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over
New York Mets Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Brooks Raley | Out | Elbow |
| Drew Smith | Out | Shoulder |
| Kodai Senga | Out | Shoulder |
| Shintaro Fujinami | Out | Shoulder |
| David Peterson | Out | Hip |
| Ronny Mauricio | Out | Knee |
| Francisco Alvarez | Out | Thumb |
| Tylor Megill | Out | Shoulder |
| Christopher Larez | Out | Personal |
Philadelphia Phillies Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| J.T. Realmuto | Questionable | Knee |
| Kyle Schwarber | Probable | Back |
| Trea Turner | Out | Hamstring |
| Dylan Covey | Out | Shoulder |
| Rafael Marchán | Out | Back |
| Luis F. Ortiz | Out | Ankle |
| Yunior Marte | Out | Shoulder |
| Michael Rucker | Out | Hand |
