New York Mets vs Minnesota Twins Preview
Wednesday’s interleague matchup between the Twins and Mets gets started at 1:10 PM ET from Citi Field in New York, NY. The Mets have won two straight and are 57-50, while the Twins are 58-48 overall and they are 3rd in the AL Central.
Minnesota comes into the game as the slight money line favorite, with their odds sitting at -114 compared to the Mets at -105. The over/under line is currently 8.5 runs, and SNY will be televising this one. Luis Severino is starting for the Mets, while the Twins are going with Pablo Lopez.
Check out BetCoco for New York Mets – Minnesota Twins odds
New York Mets vs. Minnesota Twins Trends and Key Stats
- The Twins are 2-3 in their five most recent road games, including a 2-3 runline record.
- On the opposing side, the Mets have a 4-1 (SU) record, along with a 3-2 record in their last five home contests.
- Over the last ten games, Twins has a record of 3-7 when playing as favorites and 4-6 when playing as underdogs.
- The Mets hold a 7-3 record as the favorite and a 5-5 record as the underdog.
New York picked up a 2-0 win over the Twins in the most recent game of this series. The Mets had just five hits in the game but got to Twins starter David Festa, who gave up two earned runs in five innings of work. J.D. Martinez drove in both of the Mets’ runs.
Sean Manaea pitched well for the Mets in this one, going seven innings and striking out 11 without giving up a run. He picked up a win in the game, while Edwin Díaz closed things out.
Minnesota wasted a good outing from Festa, who gave up just two earned runs in five innings of work. He finished the game with six strikeouts but took the loss.
New York Mets vs Minnesota Twins Prediction
Minnesota is on the road today, and they are looking to snap a two-game losing streak, as they have dropped the first two games of their series vs. the Mets. Currently, the Twins are 3rd in the AL Central, 6.5 games behind the Guardians for the division lead. Overall, they are 58-48 and have gone 21-14 against other teams in the AL Central.
As the favorite, the Twins have gone 46-27 this year and 12-21 as the underdog. Minnesota has been good as the road favorite, going 23-10, and their overall road record is 29-27. At home, the Twins are 29-21 this season. Looking at their overall series record, the Twins are 21-11-2 and have won two straight series.
When betting the run line on the Twins this season, it’s been a toss-up. They’re 50-56 against the run line overall, but they’ve been slightly better on the road, going 30-26. They’ve been a better bet as the underdog, going 17-16, compared to 33-40 as the favorite. Their average run differential is +0.3 runs per game, but they’ve been better at home (+0.5) than on the road (+0.2).
The Twins have been involved in high-scoring games this season, with their combined run average sitting at 9.2 runs per game. Their over/under record for the season is 54-50, and when the over/under line has been set at 8.5 runs, they have gone over the total 14 times and under 15 times. Overall, only 11.3% of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs or higher.
The Twins are sending right-hander Pablo López to the mound today as he faces the Mets on the road. López has made 21 starts this season and has a record of 9-7 with an ERA of 4.73. In his last outing, he picked up the win, going seven innings and giving up two earned runs on six hits. Looking back further, López has finished with a no-decision in three straight outings. He has made 10 quality starts this season and is averaging 10.3 strikeouts per nine innings. For the year, he has allowed 19 home runs.
Minnesota comes into today’s game as one of the league’s top-scoring offenses, averaging 4.8 runs per game. They have been even better at home, putting up an average of 4.9 runs per contest. The Twins have been a good home run hitting team this season and also have a collective batting average of .252, which is 8th in the league.
Over his last three games, Matt Wallner has gone 4/9 with two homers and three RBIs. Ryan Jeffers and Carlos Santana are the Twins’ top power threats this season, with Jeffers leading the team with 15 homers and Santana right behind him at 14. Jeffers also has the top RBI total on the team, with 49. Carlos Correa comes into the game on a four-game hitting streak.
The Mets are 57-50 overall and trail the Phillies by eight games in the NL East. They are 3rd in the division and have gone 20-16 against other NL East teams. New York has won two straight games, and they have gone 7-3 over their last 10 games overall.
So far, the Mets have been good at home, going 30-28. On the road, they are 27-22 this season. As the underdog, the Mets have won three straight games and are 22-22 as the underdog overall. At home, they are 7-10 when favored this year, and their overall series record is 16-13-7.
When betting the run line on the Mets, it’s been a good idea to take them as the underdog, as they are 27-17 in that role. They have also been a good bet on the run line on the road, going 27-22. The Mets have been a good bet on the run line in their last two games, and they have covered the run line in three straight games as the underdog.
Today’s over/under line of 8.5 runs for the New York Mets’ game against the Minnesota Twins is slightly lower than their season average of 9.5 runs per game. The Mets have a 57-47 over/under record this season, and their games have averaged 8 runs per game. When the over/under line has been set at 8.5 runs, the Mets have gone over 19 times and under 12 times. Their games have had an over/under line set at 8.5 runs in 24 of their 107 games this season, which is 22.4% of their games.
Luis Severino gets the start for the Mets today and comes in with a record of 7-3 and an ERA of 3.58. So far this year, he has made 20 starts, and opponents are batting .221 off the right-hander. Severino’s last outing came on July 25th, where he finished with a no-decision, going five innings, and giving up two earned runs. Before that, he had won two straight starts. One thing to watch for today is his walk numbers, as he is averaging 3.13 per nine innings compared to just 7.01 strikeouts.
Francisco Lindor has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 11/43 in his last 10 games with five homers and 11 RBIs. For the season, he is batting .254 with 22 homers and 63 RBIs. Both Lindor and Pete Alonso are tied for the team lead in homers, with Alonso also batting .244 with 57 RBIs. Brandon Nimmo has been the team’s top run producer so far, with 65 RBIs, which is 12th in the league.
As a team, the Mets are 6th in scoring at 4.9 runs per game and have been even better on the road, averaging 5.3 runs per contest. Overall, they are one of the league’s top home run hitting teams and have the 5th best isolated power figure in the league.
We see this game finishing with a final score of 6-5 in favor of the Mets. With the Mets picking up the win, you can get them on the money line at -105, which is a good payout for a game that we have them winning.
Looking at the starting pitchers, our projections have Luis Severino finishing with six strikeouts, and he is currently averaging 15th among starters in terms of projected strikeouts. As for Pablo Lopez, he is projected to finish with six K’s, which has him at 10th among starters.
New York Mets vs Minnesota Twins Betting Tips
- Take the Mets on the moneyline
- The Mets are also our pick on the run line at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
New York Mets Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | Out | Knee |
| Brooks Raley | Out | Elbow |
| Sean Reid-Foley | Out | Shoulder |
| Drew Smith | Out | Elbow |
| Kodai Senga | Out | Calf |
| Reed Garrett | Out | Elbow |
| Ronny Mauricio | Out | Knee |
| Francisco Alvarez | Questionable | Shoulder |
| Dedniel Núñez | Out | Elbow |
| Christian Scott | Out | Elbow |
| Christopher Larez | Out | Personal |
Minnesota Twins Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony DeSclafani | Out | Elbow |
| Carlos Correa | Out | Heel |
| Alex Kirilloff | Out | Back |
| Chris Paddack | Out | Forearm |
| Brock Stewart | Questionable | Undisclosed |
| Kyle Farmer | Out | Shoulder |
| Justin Topa | Out | Knee |
| Daniel Duarte | Out | Elbow |
| Kody Funderburk | Out | Oblique |
