New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Preview
The Mets head into Sunday’s matchup vs. the Marlins looking to extend their winning streak to three games, as they are 64-59 overall. As for the Marlins, they are 45-78 and are starting Valente Bellozo. Miami is +165 on the money line, while the Mets are the heavy favorite at -197. The over/under line is currently 8.5 runs.
First pitch from New York’s Citi Field is set for 12:05 PM ET. There does appear to be a chance of rain in the forecast for Sunday’s game in New York. In the NL East, the Marlins are in 5th place, while the Mets are 3rd.
Check out BetCoco for New York Mets – Miami Marlins odds
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins Trends and Key Stats
- Across their last five road games, the Marlins are 2-3. This includes going 2-3 vs. the runline.
- In the Mets’ five most recent home games, their record stands at 2-3 (SU) with 2-3 against the spread.
- Over their last ten games when playing as the favorite, the Mets have won 6-4 straight-up, and have a 6-4 record vs. the runline.
- Looking back at their last ten games as the underdog, the Marlins have a 3-7 straight-up record and a 4-6 record vs. the runline.
New York cruised to a 4-0 win over the Marlins in the most recent game of this series. The Mets had a huge 1st inning, scoring three of their four runs. As for the Marlins, they had their best chance to score in the 4th, but could only muster one run. Heading into the game, the Mets were favored at -195 on the money line.
Luis Severino pitched a gem for the Mets in this one, going nine innings and striking out eight without giving up a run. He picked up a win in the game, while Max Meyer took the loss for Miami. Meyer went just four innings and gave up four runs on six hits.
Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso each homered for the Mets, while Mark Vientos went 2/4 with an RBI. Lindor, Alonso, and Vientos combined for six of the Mets’ seven hits.
New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Prediction
Miami is 45-78 overall and 28.0 games behind the Phillies in the NL East. Currently, they are in 5th place in the division and have gone 12-26 against other teams in the NL East. The Marlins are on a three-game losing streak, dropping the first two games of this series vs. the Mets.
At home, the Marlins are just 24-39 compared to 21-39 on the road. This season, the Marlins have really struggled as the favorite, going 4-13. As the underdog, Miami is 41-65 this year. So far, their overall series record is 10-22-6, and they have lost two straight series at home.
When the Marlins are the underdog, they have been a solid bet against the run line, covering in 55 of their 106 games. They have been a favorite 17 times and have only covered twice. The Marlins’ average run differential in their wins is +2.8, while their average run differential in their losses is -3.8.
When the Marlins are on the road, the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs. Their games have averaged 8.7 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 68-52 overall. When the line is set at 8.5 runs, their record is 23-19. This season, 20 of their games have had an over/under line set at 8.5 runs, accounting for 16.3% of their games.
Valente Bellozo will be making his 4th start of the season for the Marlins, and he has picked up wins in each of his first 2 outings. He has been solid in each of his starts, as he has yet to allow an earned run. Bellozo’s last time out, he went 7 innings and struck out 4 in a win over the Phillies.
Currently, the Marlins are 29th in the league in runs per game, averaging just 3.7 per contest. They have been even worse on the road, averaging only 3.2 runs per game. Miami’s offense has been a bit better at home, averaging 4.1 runs per game. As a team, the Marlins are batting .237, which is 15th in the league, and their team on-base percentage of .292 is 22nd in the MLB.
Jake Burger has been on a tear for the Marlins, going 8/19 in his last five games with three homers and eight runs scored. For the season, he is batting .254 with a team-high 55 RBIs and 24 homers. Jesús Sánchez is also near the top of the Marlins’ home run leaderboard with 15, but he is batting just .239 for the season.
The Mets are 64-59 overall and trail the Phillies by nine games in the NL East. They are 22-16 against other teams in the NL East. New York has won two straight games, and they are currently leading the Marlins 2-0 in the series. So far, their series record is 18-16-7 this year.
At home, the Mets are 33-31 this year and 31-28 on the road. As the favorite, the Mets are 41-33 this year, and they are 23-26 as the underdog. New York’s home win streak has been two games, and they are 26-20 as the home favorite this year. Looking at their overall record, they are 5-5 over their last 10 games.
When betting the run line, the Mets have been a better bet on the road this season, going 31-28 compared to 28-36 at home. They are currently on a two-game run line win streak at home and have covered the run line in their last two games overall. They have been a better bet as the underdog this season, going 28-21 compared to 31-43 as the favorite.
When the Mets play at home, the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, and their games have averaged 9.4 runs per game. Overall, the over/under record for Mets games is 63-56, and when the line is set at 8.5 runs, the over/under record is 23-14. This season, 25.2% of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs, while 44.7% have had lines set lower.
Paul Blackburn gets the start for the Mets today vs. the Marlins and comes in with a record of 5-3 and an ERA of 4.43. In his 12 starts, Blackburn has turned in six quality starts and is averaging 7.25 strikeouts per nine innings. Looking back at his last outing, Blackburn took the loss vs. the Athletics, giving up six earned runs in four innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts. So far, he has been much better on the road, with an ERA of 6.49 compared to 3.91 at home.
Francisco Lindor has been one of the Mets’ top hitters all season, batting .265 with a team-leading 71 RBIs and 24 homers, which is 2nd on the team and 12th in the league. Over his last 10 games, Lindor has been on fire, going 17/43 (.395) with two homers and seven RBIs. Pete Alonso is also having a strong season, as he is batting .243 with 27 homers and 69 RBIs.
As a team, the Mets are 5th in home runs and are averaging 4.8 runs per game. This number jumps up to 5 runs per game when they are on the road. Overall, they are batting .250, which is 8th in the league.
Our predicted final score for this one is 5-4 in favor of the Mets, which means there isn’t a ton of value in picking the money line. Instead, we recommend taking the over, as the line is sitting at 8.5 runs, and we have this one going for nine runs.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Paul Blackburn is projected to finish with four strikeouts, which is one of the reasons we have him finishing with a 5-4 win. As for Valente Bellozo, we have him finishing with six K’s, and you could look to take the over on his strikeout line if it’s sitting at five or lower.
New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Betting Tips
- Take the Mets on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Marlins (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over
New York Mets Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | Out | Knee |
| Brooks Raley | Out | Elbow |
| Sean Reid-Foley | Out | Shoulder |
| Drew Smith | Out | Elbow |
| Kodai Senga | Out | Calf |
| Ronny Mauricio | Out | Knee |
| Dedniel Núñez | Out | Elbow |
| Christian Scott | Out | Elbow |
| Christopher Larez | Out | Personal |
Miami Marlins Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Sandy Alcantara | Out | Elbow |
| Braxton Garrett | Out | Elbow |
| Jesús Luzardo | Out | Back |
| Sixto Sánchez | Out | Shoulder |
| Ryan Weathers | Out | Finger |
| Dane Myers | Out | Ankle |
| Anthony Bender | Out | Undisclosed |
| Eury Pérez | Out | Elbow |
| Josh Simpson | Out | Elbow |
