New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Preview
First pitch for Saturday’s Marlins vs. Mets matchup is set for 4:10 PM ET from Citi Field in New York, NY. The Mets are the heavy favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at -188, while the Marlins are at +158. The over/under line is currently 8.5 runs.
Miami will be looking to snap a two-game losing streak with a win, as they are 45-77 and their division rank is 5th in the NL East. New York is 3rd in the NL East, and they come into the game with a record of 63-59. SNY is carrying this one on TV.
Check out BetCoco for New York Mets – Miami Marlins odds
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins Trends and Key Stats
- Over the course of their previous five away games, the Marlins have recorded a 3-2 record, with a 3-2 performance on the runline.
- The Mets, on the other hand, have played five home games recently, during which they have recorded a 2-3 (SU) and 2-3 record.
- Over their last ten games as the favorite, the Mets have a straight-up record of 5-5, while going 5-5 against the runline.
- Looking back at their last ten games as the underdog, the Marlins have a 3-7 straight-up record and a 4-6 record vs. the runline.
The Mets cruised to a 7-3 win over the Marlins in the most recent game of this series. New York had a huge 4th inning, scoring six of their seven runs. As for the Marlins, they scored their three runs in the 5th. Heading into the game, the Mets were favored at -264 on the money line.
Sean Manaea got the win for the Mets, going seven innings and giving up three earned runs. He finished the game with just four strikeouts but induced 11 ground balls. Roddery Muñoz only went 3 1/3 innings for the Marlins, taking the loss.
Brandon Nimmo and Jeff McNeil each had two hits and an RBI for the Mets’ offense. J.D. Martinez also had a two-hit game and drove in a run. Jake Burger hit the game’s only home run, going 1/4 with three RBIs.
New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Prediction
Miami is 5th in the NL East with a record of 45-77, putting them 27 games behind the Phillies for the division lead. So far, they have gone just 12-25 against other teams in the NL East. The Marlins have dropped two straight games, and they are 3-7 across their last 10 games overall.
At home, the Marlins are just 24-39 compared to a 21-38 mark on the road. This season, the Marlins are just 4-13 when favored and 41-64 as the underdog. As for their overall series record, the Marlins are 10-22-6 and have dropped two straight series at home.
When the Marlins are the underdog, they are a good bet against the run line, going 55-50. They have covered the run line in 29 of their 59 road games, but they have failed to cover in their last two. They have been favored 17 times and have only covered twice.
The Miami Marlins are on the road against the New York Mets today, and the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs. The Marlins have an over/under record of 68-51 on the season, and their games have averaged a combined 8.8 runs per game. When the over/under line has been set at 8.5 runs this season, their record is 23-18. Overall, 20 of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs, accounting for 16.4% of their games this season. Their games have had lower over/under lines in 61 games, or 50.0% of their games this season. The over has hit in their last two games.
Miami is sending right-hander Max Meyer to the mound today vs. the Mets. He has made seven starts this year and has a record of 3-2 with a 5.20 ERA. Meyer’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.27. In his 36 1/3 innings of work, he has allowed a total of seven home runs. Looking back at his last outing, Meyer picked up the win vs. the Padres, going 6 1/3 innings and giving up four earned runs. Before that, he had lost two straight starts. So far, he has made two quality starts this year.
For the Marlins to pick up a win today, they will need their offense to pick things up, as they are averaging just 3.7 runs per game, which is 29th in the league. At home, they have been slightly better, averaging 4.1 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting just .237, and their team on-base percentage of .293 is 22nd in the league.
Jake Burger has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 9/20 in his last five games with four homers and 10 runs scored. For the season, he is batting .253 with a team-high 55 RBIs and 24 homers. Jesús Sánchez is also swinging a hot bat, as he is on an eight-game hitting streak and has gone deep 15 times this season.
The Mets are 63-59 overall and trail the Phillies by nine games in the NL East. So far, they have gone 21-16 in divisional games. New York is coming off a loss in their series finale vs. the Nationals, and they are just 4-6 over their last 10 games.
At home, the Mets are 32-31 this season compared to a 31-28 mark on the road. As the favorite, the Mets are 40-33 this season and 23-26 as the underdog. New York’s overall series record is 18-16-7, and they have dropped two straight series.
When the Mets win, they win big, with an average run margin of 3.7 runs per game. They’ve been a solid bet on the run line overall, going 58-64, but they’ve been a better bet on the road, where they’re 31-28. They’ve been a better bet as the underdog, going 28-21.
Today’s over/under line is 8.5 runs for the New York Mets’ game against the Miami Marlins at Citi Field. The Mets have had a combined run average of 9.4 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 63-55. Their games have had an average over/under line of 8 runs, and their over/under record when the line is set at 8.5 runs is 23-13. Their current over streak is at five games.
New York is sending Luis Severino to the mound today vs. the Marlins, and he will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Mariners. In that start, he took the loss, giving up four earned runs in five innings of work. Looking back over his last three starts, Severino has taken the loss in each outing. His record for the season is 7-6, and he has an ERA of 4.17. Opponents are batting .234 off Severino this season. Out of his 23 starts, he has nine quality starts and is averaging 7.34 strikeouts per nine innings.
Francisco Lindor comes into today’s game with a 10-game hitting streak, and over his last nine games, he has gone 15/40 (.375) with one home run and six RBIs. For the season, he is batting .263 with 23 homers and 70 RBIs. Pete Alonso has also been swinging the bat well of late, going 9/36 with three homers in his last nine games. Alonso’s 26 homers this season are 11th in the league.
Overall, the Mets are 6th in home runs this season and are averaging 4.8 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5 runs per contest. As a team, the Mets are batting .250, which is 10th in the league, and are among the league leaders in on-base percentage, slugging, and OPS.
Our prediction for this Marlins vs. Mets matchup is to take the over, with the line sitting at 8.5 runs. We see the Mets coming out on top by a score of 5-4, giving us a little bit of wiggle room on the over/under line.
If you’re looking for a money line pick, the Mets at -188 is a solid pick, but we see there being more value on the over. Looking at today’s starters, we do have Luis Severino finishing with more strikeouts than Max Meyer, with Severino projected to finish with six K’s and Meyer at seven.
New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Betting Tips
- Take the Mets on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Marlins (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over
New York Mets Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | Out | Knee |
| Brooks Raley | Out | Elbow |
| Sean Reid-Foley | Out | Shoulder |
| Drew Smith | Out | Elbow |
| Kodai Senga | Out | Calf |
| Ronny Mauricio | Out | Knee |
| Dedniel Núñez | Out | Elbow |
| Christian Scott | Out | Elbow |
| Christopher Larez | Out | Personal |
Miami Marlins Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Sandy Alcantara | Out | Elbow |
| Braxton Garrett | Out | Elbow |
| Jesús Luzardo | Out | Back |
| Sixto Sánchez | Out | Shoulder |
| Ryan Weathers | Out | Finger |
| Dane Myers | Out | Ankle |
| Anthony Bender | Out | Undisclosed |
| Eury Pérez | Out | Elbow |
| Josh Simpson | Out | Elbow |
