New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Preview
Sean Manaea and the Mets are the heavy favorite on the money line for Friday’s matchup vs. the Marlins, as New York’s money line odds are at -230 compared to the Marlins at +191. This NL East matchup has an over/under line of 8.5 runs, and the forecast from New York calls for clear skies and temperatures in the upper 80s.
First pitch from Citi Field is set for 7:10 PM ET, and BSFL will be televising this one. Miami comes in with a record of 45-76, while the Mets are 62-59, which has them 3rd in the NL East. Roddery Munoz is slated to start for the Marlins.
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New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins Trends and Key Stats
- Over the course of their previous five away games, the Marlins have recorded a 3-2 record, with a 3-2 performance on the runline.
- On the opposing side, the Mets have a 2-3 (SU) record, along with a 2-3 record in their last five home contests.
- Over their last ten games when playing as the favorite, the Mets have won 5-5 straight-up, and have a 5-5 record vs. the runline.
- Looking back at their last ten games as the underdog, the Marlins have a 4-6 straight-up record and a 5-5 record vs. the runline.
New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Prediction
Miami is coming off a game in which they wasted several good performances. In their 9-5 loss to the Phillies, Jonah Bride went 2/4 with a homer and four RBIs. The Marlins also had three other players with two hits. However, the Marlins really struggled on the mound, and Edward Cabrera took the loss, going only four innings and giving up six earned runs.
Cabrera also issued four walks and took the loss. Miami’s bullpen didn’t give up a run, but they also didn’t do much to help the Marlins come back, as Miami scored their only two runs in the 1st inning.
Miami is 5th in the NL East with a record of 45-76, putting them 26 games behind the Phillies for the division lead. So far, they are just 12-24 in divisional games. The Marlins have struggled as the favorite this year, going just 4-13, and they are 21-37 as the underdog on the road.
At home, the Marlins are 24-39 compared to a 21-37 mark on the road. Miami’s overall series record is 10-22-6, and they have dropped two straight series at home. Their series loss came to the Phillies, and they are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
When the Marlins win, they win big, with an average margin of victory of 2.8 runs per game. However, when they lose, it’s usually by a wide margin, with an average margin of defeat of -3.8 runs per game. Miami is 57-64 against the run line this season, with a road run line record of 29-29. They have been a better bet on the run line as an underdog (55-49) than as a favorite (2-15).
When the Miami Marlins are on the road, the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, and their games have an average run total of 8.8 runs. This season, the over/under record for Marlins games is 67-51, and their games have had an average over/under line of 8 runs. When the line is set at 8.5 runs, the over/under record is 22-18. So far this season, 20 of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs, which accounts for 16.5% of their games. The majority of their games have had lower over/under lines, with 61 games having lines set below 8.5 runs, accounting for 50.4% of their games.
Roddery Muñoz gets the start for the Marlins today and comes in with a record of 2-6 and ERA of 5.67. Looking at his overall numbers, Muñoz has made 14 starts, two of which were quality starts. His ERA at home is 7.04 compared to 4.86 on the road. The right-hander’s last outing came on August 10th vs. the Padres, where he finished with a no-decision, giving up three earned runs in five innings of work. Before that, he had given up at least four earned runs in three straight starts.
As a team, the Marlins are averaging just 3.7 runs per game, which is 29th in the league. They have been even worse on the road, averaging only 3.3 runs per contest. Miami’s offense is also near the bottom of the league in home runs and walks. However, they do come into today’s game with a collective batting average of .238, which is 16th in the MLB.
Jake Burger has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 11/24 in his last six games with four homers and 10 runs scored. For the season, he is batting .253 with a team-high 54 RBIs and 23 homers. Jesús Sánchez is also having a good year in terms of power, as he has 15 homers and 48 RBIs to go along with a batting average of .242.
The Mets will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Athletics with a 7-6 loss. New York was the heavy favorite at -193 going into the game but fell behind big early, as the Athletics scored four times in the 4th.
Offensively, the Mets scored their six runs on nine hits and two homers. Mark Vientos went 2/5 with a pair of homers and three RBIs. The Mets also had a four-run 2nd inning. Jose Iglesias scored the team’s other two runs, going 2/4 at the plate.
The Mets are two games above .500 at 62-59, and they are nine games behind the Phillies for the NL East lead. New York will open their series vs. the Marlins at home, and they are 20-16 in divisional games this year.
At home, the Mets are 31-31 this year and 31-28 on the road. New York has lost two straight series, and their overall series record is 18-16-7. As the favorite, the Mets are 39-33 and 24-20 when favored at home. They closed out their series vs. the Athletics with a loss and are 4-6 over their last 10 games.
Despite a run line record of 26-36 at home, the Mets have an average run margin of 0.1 runs per game at Citi Field. They have a run line record of 31-28 on the road, where they have a scoring margin of 0.2 runs per game. Overall, the Mets have a run line record of 57-64 this season.
The Mets are at home today against the Marlins, and the over/under line for the game is set at 8.5 runs. Both teams have been involved in high-scoring games this season, as their combined run average is 9.4 runs per game. The over/under record for Mets games this season is 62-55, and when the line is set at 8.5 runs, the over has hit in 22 of 35 games. The over has also hit in each of the Mets’ last four games.
Sean Manaea will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Mariners, as he gets the start for the Mets today. In that outing, he took the loss, going just three innings and giving up three earned runs, three walks, and a homer. Before that, he had won two straight starts and didn’t give up a run in either outing. Manaea’s ERA for the season is 3.44, along with a record of 8-5. Looking at his home/road splits, he is 4-3 at home with a 4.54 ERA compared to 4-2 on the road with a 3.45 ERA.
Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso have been two of the Mets’ most consistent power threats this season, with Alonso’s 26 homers leading the team and ranking 10th in the league. Lindor is right behind him with 23 homers and is batting .263 for the season, including going 14/35 in his last eight games. Alonso has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 9/32 with three homers in his last eight games.
Overall, the Mets are 6th in home runs and are averaging 4.8 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting .249 and have the league’s 8th best OPS at .739. New York also comes into the game with three players on a hitting streak, with Lindor’s streak at nine games.
Our predicted score for this Marlins vs. Mets matchup is 6-5 in favor of the Marlins, and with the Marlins sitting at +191 on the money line, that is the way we recommend playing this one.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Sean Manaea finishing with six strikeouts compared to Roddery Muñoz with five. However, we have Manaea finishing with a higher ERA than Muñoz, and with the Marlins having a much higher payout, we like Muñoz and the Marlins to pick up the win.
New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Betting Tips
- We like the Marlins on the moneyline (+191)
- The Marlins are also our pick on the spread at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
New York Mets Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | Out | Knee |
| Brooks Raley | Out | Elbow |
| Brandon Nimmo | Questionable | Illness |
| Sean Reid-Foley | Out | Shoulder |
| Drew Smith | Out | Elbow |
| Kodai Senga | Out | Calf |
| Ronny Mauricio | Out | Knee |
| Dedniel Núñez | Out | Elbow |
| Christian Scott | Out | Elbow |
| Christopher Larez | Out | Personal |
Miami Marlins Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Sandy Alcantara | Out | Elbow |
| Braxton Garrett | Out | Elbow |
| Jesús Luzardo | Out | Back |
| Sixto Sánchez | Out | Shoulder |
| Nick Fortes | Out | Quadriceps |
| Ryan Weathers | Out | Finger |
| Dane Myers | Out | Ankle |
| Anthony Bender | Out | Undisclosed |
| Eury Pérez | Out | Elbow |
| Josh Simpson | Out | Elbow |
