New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Preview
At 7:10 PM ET, the Marlins and Mets face off in an NL East matchup. This one is being played at Citi Field in New York, and the Mets are favored on the money line (-151). The money line odds for the Marlins are sitting at +128, and their record is 23-43, while the Mets are 28-37.
David Peterson is starting for the Mets, while the Marlins are going with Braxton Garrett. The over/under line is currently at 7.5 runs, and BSFL will be televising this one.
Check out BetCoco for New York Mets – Miami Marlins odds
New York Mets Trends and Key Stats
- Over the course of their previous five away games, the Marlins have recorded a 3-2 record, with a 4-1 performance on the runline.
- The Mets, on the other hand, have played five home games recently, during which they have recorded a 4-1 (SU) and 3-2 record.
- The Mets have a straight-up record of 4-6 in their last ten games as the favorite, and a 3-7 record vs. the runline.
- When playing as the underdog, the Marlins have won 4-6 of their previous ten games straight-up, while going 4-6 against the runline.
Miami picked up a 4-2 road win over the Mets in the most recent game of this series. The Marlins offense only had five hits in the game but took advantage of their opportunities, scoring four of their five runs in the 5th inning. As for the Mets, they scored their only two runs in the 2nd inning.
Jesús Luzardo got the win for the Marlins out of the bullpen, going 5 2/3 innings and giving up two earned runs. Tylor Megill struggled on the mound for the Mets, taking the loss after going just 4 2/3 innings and giving up two earned runs.
Tim Anderson was the only Marlins hitter to have more than one hit, going 2/4 with an RBI. Starling Marte and Mark Vientos each had two hits and two RBIs for the Mets.
New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Prediction
Miami is 5th in the NL East with a record of 23-43, putting them 23 games behind the Phillies for the division lead. So far, they have really struggled against other teams in the NL East, going 5-12 this year. The Marlins took the first game of this series vs. the Mets and are 4-6 over their last 10 games.
At home, the Marlins are just 12-25 this year, but they have been a bit better on the road at 11-18. This season, the Marlins have really struggled as the favorite, going just 3-12. As for their record as the underdog, they are 20-31 this year. Looking at their overall series record, the Marlins are 5-15-1 and have lost four straight series.
The Marlins are 27-39 against the run line this season, but they have been a good bet on the run line on the road, going 16-13. They have covered the run line in two straight road games and have an average run margin of -0.8 runs per game on the road this season.
The Miami Marlins are on the road today against the New York Mets, with the O/U line set at 7.5 runs. The combined run average for Marlins games this season is 8.6 runs per game, and their over/under record is 35-30. When the O/U line is set at 7.5 runs, the Marlins have gone over the total in 10 of 15 games. Overall, 69.7% of their games have had higher O/U lines than 7.5 runs.
Braxton Garrett is getting the start for the Marlins on the road against the Mets. He has been up and down in his first three starts of the season, going 1-1. Garrett’s most recent outing was a loss at home to the Rays, where he went just 2 2/3 innings and gave up 5 runs.
For the season, the Marlins are averaging just 3.6 runs per game, which is the worst mark in the league. They have been slightly better at home, averaging 3.9 runs per game. Miami’s team batting average is just .233, but they do have three players with at least nine home runs. This includes Bryan De La Cruz, who is hitting .249 for the season and has gone 2/8 in his last eight games.
Josh Bell and Jazz Chisholm Jr. are tied for the team lead in RBIs, with 31, and have seven and nine homers, respectively. Bell has been swinging the bat well of late, going 10/34 in his last nine games. Otto Lopez is also on a seven-game hitting streak for the Marlins.
The Mets are 28-37 overall, putting them 4th in the NL East, 17.5 games behind the Phillies for the division lead. So far, they are 9-10 in divisional matchups. At home, the Mets are just 13-23 this season but have been better on the road at 15-14.
New York has dropped four straight games at home, and they are 10-13 as the home favorite this year. The Mets have been the underdog 33 times, where they have gone 13-20. They are also 8-12-3 in series this year and have won two straight series on the road.
While the Mets have a losing record against the run line overall, they have been profitable on the road, going 18-11 against the run line. They have a negative run differential overall, but they have been better on the road, where they have a positive run differential.
The Mets are playing at home against the Marlins today, and the over/under line for the game is set at 7.5 runs. This season, the Mets’ games have averaged 9.2 runs per game, and their over/under record is 33-30. When the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs, their record is 8-10. Overall, 56.9% of their games have had over/under lines set higher than 7.5 runs, and their current under streak is at 3 games.
David Peterson will be making his second start of the season for the Mets, and it will be his first start at home. In his first outing of the year, Peterson went 6 2/3 innings and picked up the win against the Nationals. He struck out 5 and gave up 2 earned runs.
So far this season, the Mets are averaging 4.3 runs per game, which is 16th in the league. However, they have been much better on the road, averaging 5.5 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting .240, which is 11th in the MLB, and are 12th in home runs. New York’s team on-base percentage is also among the league’s best, at .311.
Over the last six games, Luis Torrens has gone 5/16 with two homers and four RBIs. This has helped him get his season average up to .312. Starling Marte is also swinging a hot bat right now, as he is on a four-game hitting streak. Marte’s six home runs are 4th on the team, and he is batting .284 for the season.
Our predicted final score for this Mets and Marlins matchup is 5-4 in favor of the Mets. With the money line payout for a Mets win sitting at -151, this is the bet we recommend making.
Looking at the starting pitchers, our projections have David Peterson finishing with seven strikeouts compared to Braxton Garrett with six. If you’re looking for a parlay, you could look to pair a Mets win with Peterson finishing with the most strikeouts among all starters today.
New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Betting Tips
- Take the Mets on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Marlins (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over
New York Mets Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Brooks Raley | Out | Elbow |
| Edwin Díaz | Out | Shoulder |
| Kodai Senga | Out | Shoulder |
| Shintaro Fujinami | Out | Shoulder |
| Ronny Mauricio | Out | Knee |
| Christopher Larez | Out | Personal |
Miami Marlins Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| JT Chargois | Out | Neck |
| Sandy Alcantara | Out | Elbow |
| Sixto Sánchez | Out | Shoulder |
| Edward Cabrera | Out | Shoulder |
| Ryan Weathers | Out | Finger |
| Eury Pérez | Out | Elbow |
| Josh Simpson | Out | Elbow |
| Bryan Hoeing | Out | Hamstring |
