New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Preview
From Citi Field in New York, the Marlins and Mets face off in an NL East matchup. This one gets started at 7:10 PM ET, and the Marlins are looking to end a two-game losing streak, as they are 22-43 overall. Miami is the slight money line underdog (+119), while the Mets are favored at -140.
BSFL will be televising Tuesday’s matchup, and on the mound, we have Jesus Luzardo for the Marlins and Tylor Megill for the Mets. The over/under line is currently 7.5 runs.
Check out BetCoco for New York Mets – Miami Marlins odds
New York Mets Trends and Key Stats
- The Marlins are 2-3 in their five most recent road games, including a 4-1 runline record.
- The Mets, on the other hand, have played five home games recently, during which they have recorded a 4-1 (SU) and 3-2 record.
- As the favorite, the Mets are 4-6 over their last ten games, including going 3-7 vs. the runline.
- Over their previous ten games as the underdog, the Marlins have a straight-up record of 3-7 and a 3-7 record vs. the runline.
New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Prediction
The Marlins will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Guardians with a 6-3 loss. This was especially tough, as they held a lead going into the 7th inning before the Guardians scored three runs in the top of the 7th. Miami was the +103 underdog at home going into the game.
Trevor Rogers put together a good start for the Marlins, going five innings and giving up just one earned run while striking out five. However, the Marlins couldnjson’t close things out, and A.J. Puk took the loss out of the bullpen. The Marlins also wasted a big game from Jazz Chisholm Jr., who homered in the 1st inning, going 1/4.
Miami is on the road today to take on the Mets, and they are 22-43 overall, 5th in the NL East. The Marlins are 23.0 games behind the Phillies for the NL East lead, and they are just 4-12 in divisional games this year. The Marlins lost the first two games of their series vs. the Guardians but won the final game.
As the underdog, the Marlins are 19-31 this year compared to just 3-12 as the favorite. Miami has struggled at home, going 12-25, and they are just below .500 at 10-18 on the road. So far, they have dropped two straight games as they are 3-7 over their last 10.
The Marlins have been a solid run line bet on the road, going 15-13. They have been a poor run line bet at home, going 11-26. They have been a run line underdog in 50 games and have gone 25-25 in those games. They have been favored in 15 games and have gone 1-14 in those games.
The Miami Marlins are on the road to face the New York Mets today, and the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs. The combined run average in Marlins games this season is 8.7 runs per game, and their over/under record is 35-29. When the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs, their record is 10-4. Overall, 70.8% of their games have had higher over/under lines than 7.5 runs.
Jesús Luzardo is looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Rays, as he gets the start for the Marlins today. In that June 4th start, he took the loss, going just 4 1/3 innings and giving up nine hits, nine earned runs, and two homers. Looking back over his last three starts, Luzardo has given up at least two homers in each outing. Overall, he has a record of 2-5, an ERA of 5.30, and has issued 2.89 walks per nine innings compared to 8.36 strikeouts. Luzardo’s ERA on the road is 7.0 compared to 5.65 at home.
Josh Bell has been swinging the bat well for the Marlins of late, going 16/40 in his last 10 games. This includes one home run and four RBIs. For the season, Bell is batting .252 with seven homers, which is 3rd on the team. Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Josh Bell are tied for the team lead in RBIs, with 31, and Chisholm Jr. is also 2nd on the team with nine homers.
As a team, the Marlins are 28th in scoring, averaging just 3.6 runs per game. They have been even worse on the road, averaging just 3.2 runs per contest. Miami’s team batting average is just .234 (14th) and they are also near the bottom of the league in on-base percentage, slugging, and OPS.
New York closed out their series vs. the Phillies with a 6-5 win on the road. The Mets were the +123 underdog going into this matchup. Things started off well for the Mets, as they got on the board with a run in the 1st inning but gave up the lead right away as the Phillies scored in the bottom of the first.
The Mets started Jose Quintana, and he took the no-decision, going 3 2/3 innings and giving up three earned runs on six hits. New York’s offense was carried by Jeff McNeil, who went 2/4 with a run scored and two RBIs.
The Mets are 4th in the NL East, trailing the Phillies by 16.5 games. Overall, the Mets are 28-36, and they are 9-9 in divisional matchups. New York will take on the Marlins today, and they are 13-22 at home this season.
So far, the Mets have been better on the road, going 15-14. As the underdog, the Mets are 13-20 this season and 15-16 as the favorite. New York has an overall series record of 8-12-3, and they won their most recent series vs. the Phillies.
When betting the run line with the Mets, it’s been a better proposition to take them on the road. Their overall run line record is 29-35, but they are 18-11 on the run line away from home. Their average run margin in winning games is 2.8, while it’s -3.1 in losing games.
When the New York Mets play at home, the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs. The Mets have a combined run average of 9.3 runs per game, and their games have gone over the line in 33 of 62 games this season. When the line is set at 7.5 runs, the over/under record is 8-9, and the under has hit in two straight games.
Getting the start for the Mets today is Tylor Megill, who is making his 3rd start of the season. He picked up a win in his last outing, going 5 innings and allowing 4 earned runs. In his first start, he went 7 innings, striking out 9 and giving up just 3 hits.
Heading into today’s game, the Mets are averaging 4.4 runs per game, which is 14th in the league. They have been a better offensive team on the road this season, averaging 5.5 runs per game. As a team, the Mets are batting .242, which is 10th in the league, and have the 11th most home runs in the league. Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo are tied for the team lead in RBIs, with 32, and Alonso’s 14 homers is 8th in the league.
Brandon Nimmo comes into the game on a six-game hitting streak and has gone 8/27 over his last six games. During this stretch, he has scored three runs and driven in three. For the season, he is batting just .221. Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor have also struggled with their batting averages, coming in at .240 and .235, respectively.
Our prediction for this Marlins vs. Mets matchup is that the Mets will pick up a 5-4 win at home. With the money line sitting at -140 for the Mets, this is the way we recommend playing this one.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Tylor Megill finishing with five strikeouts, which is good for 16th among starters today. As for Jesús Luzardo, we have him finishing with seven K’s, which is fifth best among starters.
New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Betting Tips
- Take the Mets on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Marlins (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over
New York Mets Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Brooks Raley | Out | Elbow |
| Edwin Díaz | Out | Shoulder |
| Kodai Senga | Out | Shoulder |
| Shintaro Fujinami | Out | Shoulder |
| Ronny Mauricio | Out | Knee |
| Francisco Alvarez | Out | Thumb |
| Christopher Larez | Out | Personal |
Miami Marlins Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| JT Chargois | Out | Neck |
| Sandy Alcantara | Out | Elbow |
| Sixto Sánchez | Out | Shoulder |
| Edward Cabrera | Out | Shoulder |
| Ryan Weathers | Out | Finger |
| Eury Pérez | Out | Elbow |
| Josh Simpson | Out | Elbow |
| Bryan Hoeing | Out | Hamstring |
