New York Mets vs Houston Astros Preview
From Citi Field in New York, we have the Astros and Mets facing off in an interleague matchup. First pitch for this one is set for 1:40 PM ET, and WPIX is carrying this one on TV.
The Mets are slight favorites on the money line, with the odds sitting at -158 compared to the Astros at +133. This game will be started by Shawn Dubin for the Astros and Luis Severino for the Mets. The over/under line is currently at 9 runs.
Check out BetCoco for New York Mets – Houston Astros odds
New York Mets Trends and Key Stats
- The Astros are 3-2 across their last five road games. They have gone 3-2 vs. the runline.
- The Mets, on the other hand, have played five home games recently, during which they have recorded a 3-2 (SU) and 2-3 record.
- Over their last ten games when playing as the favorite, the Mets have won 7-3 straight-up, and have a 5-5 record vs. the runline.
- The Astros have a 6-4 straight-up record and a 6-4 record vs. the runline over their previous ten games as the underdog.
Houston rallied for three runs in the 8th and another two in the 9th in the most recent game of this Astros vs. Mets series. The Astros scored one run in the 1st inning but didn’t score another run until putting up three in the top of the 8th, picking up a 9-6 win. Heading into the game, the Astros were at -101 on the money line.
Framber Valdez got the start for the Astros, going just 4 2/3 innings while giving up six runs and striking out five. Seth Martinez got the win out of the bullpen, and Josh Hader got the save. Reed Garrett took the loss for the Mets out of the bullpen.
At the plate, Jake Meyers and Mauricio Dubon each had two hits and two RBIs for the Astros. Yordan Alvarez also had a two-hit game and scored a run. For the Mets, Mark Vientos hit the game’s only home run and went 2/4 with three RBIs.
New York Mets vs Houston Astros Prediction
Houston is at an even 41-41 overall as they take on the Mets today, and they are 4.5 games behind the Mariners in the AL West. The Astros are 15-12 against other teams in the AL West this year and have won four straight series.
The Astros have been playing well lately, going 8-2 across their last ten games. At home, they are 24-19 this year and have gone 17-22 on the road. As the favorite, the Astros are just one game below .500 at 31-32 and 10-9 as the underdog.
Despite being just a game over .500 on the run line, the Astros have been a profitable team to back in that regard on the road, where they have a 17-22 run line record. Their average run differential on the road is -0.5 runs per game, but they have been able to cover the run line in 22 of their 43 road games.
The Astros are on the road against the Mets today, with the over/under line set at 9 runs. Houston’s games have averaged 8.9 runs this season, and their over/under record is 30-48. When the line is set at 9 runs, their record is 9-7-2. Overall, 61% of their games have had lower lines than 9 runs, and their current over streak is at 2 games.
Right-hander Shawn Dubin is getting the start for the Astros today as he faces the Mets on the road. Dubin has made 14 appearances this season but has not made a start, so his ERA is 5.64. Opponents have hit .302 off Dubin this year, and his WHIP is 1.66. In his last outing, Dubin went 1 inning out of the bullpen, giving up one earned run, one hit, and one walk. He finished with a no-decision in that outing. Before that, he had given up at least one earned run in three straight appearances. Dubin’s record for the season is 1-1.
Heading into today’s game, the Astros are the league’s top-hitting team, averaging 4.6 runs per game. They have been even better at home, putting up 5.1 runs per game. Overall, they are 6th in home runs and have the league’s top batting average. Houston also does a great job of putting the ball in play, as they have the fewest strikeouts in the league.
Jose Altuve has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 11/31 in his last seven games with two homers and six RBIs. Yordan Alvarez is also on a four-game hitting streak and comes into the game with a team-high 41 RBIs. Alvarez is 10th in the MLB with 16 home runs, while Kyle Tucker’s 19 homers are 7th best in the league.
With an even 40-40 record, the Mets are 3rd in the NL East and trail the Phillies by 12.5 games for the division lead. So far, they are just above .500 in their division, with an 11-10 mark. The Mets will be hosting the Astros today, and they are 21-24 at home this season.
New York has gone 7-3 across their last ten games, and they have won six straight series. As the favorite, the Mets are 21-20 this year and 19-20 as the underdog. They have an overall series record of 13-12-3, and their four-game road series winning streak was snapped in their most recent road series.
When betting the run line on the Mets this season, it’s been a better proposition to take them on the road, where they are 21-14 compared to 17-28 at home. They have been a better bet as the underdog, going 24-15 compared to 14-27 as the favorite. Their average run margin in winning games is +3.5, while it’s -3.2 in losses.
While the Mets have played in games with an average over/under line of 8 runs, they have seen a recent uptick in scoring, with the over hitting in four straight games. Their over/under record for the season is 42-36, and they have played in just 11.2% of games with an over/under line of 9 runs or higher.
New York is sending Luis Severino to the mound today, and he has been pitching well this season. So far, he has made 15 starts and has a record of 5-2. Severino’s ERA is 3.29, along with a WHIP of 1.15. In his 15 appearances, he has turned in seven quality starts. The right-hander most recently faced the Cubs, where he picked up the win, going six innings and not allowing a run. Before that outing, he had given up at least one earned run in three straight starts. Severino has been much better at home, coming in with an ERA of 2.68 compared to 4.27 on the road.
Heading into today’s game, the Mets are averaging 4.8 runs per game, which is 6th in the league. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.7 runs per game. As a team, they are 4th in home runs and have the 7th best team batting average in the league. The Mets have three of the league’s top 15 home run hitters, with Pete Alonso leading the team with 17 homers and Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo not too far behind.
Francisco Lindor has been hot of late, going 12/32 in his last seven games, with one home run and three RBIs. He is also on a five-game hitting streak. Overall, he is batting .252 for the season, and his 40 RBIs are 3rd on the team. Pete Alonso has gone deep 17 times this season, but he is batting just .244 for the year.
Our prediction for today’s Astros vs. Mets matchup is to take the Astros on the money line, with the payout sitting at +133. We actually have the Astros winning this one by a score of 6-5.
Looking at some potential player props, Luis Severino is projected to finish with six strikeouts, which would have him ranked 11th among all starters today. As for the Astros, they are projected to finish with 12 strikeouts, which is the fifth most in the league today.
New York Mets vs Houston Astros Betting Tips
- We like the Astros on the moneyline (+133)
- The Astros are also our pick on the spread at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
New York Mets Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | Out | Knee |
| Brooks Raley | Out | Elbow |
| Edwin Díaz | Out | Suspension |
| Sean Reid-Foley | Out | Shoulder |
| Drew Smith | Out | Elbow |
| Kodai Senga | Out | Shoulder |
| Shintaro Fujinami | Out | Shoulder |
| Ronny Mauricio | Out | Knee |
| Christopher Larez | Out | Personal |
Houston Astros Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Verlander | Out | Neck |
| Kendall Graveman | Out | Shoulder |
| Lance McCullers Jr. | Out | Forearm |
| Victor Caratini | Out | Hip Flexor |
| Kyle Tucker | Out | Shin |
| Cristian Javier | Out | Elbow |
| Luis Garcia | Out | Elbow |
| Bennett Sousa | Out | Shoulder |
| José Urquidy | Out | Elbow |
| Penn Murfee | Out | Elbow |
| Oliver Ortega | Out | Elbow |
| Jake Bloss | Out | Shoulder |
