New York Mets vs Houston Astros Preview
From Citi Field in New York, we have the Astros and Mets facing off in an interleague matchup. The forecast for Friday’s game calls for broken clouds and temperatures in the upper 70s. Jose Quintana is set to start for the Mets, and the Astros are starting Ronel Blanco.
Currently, the Astros are on a seven-game winning streak, and they are 40-40 overall. The Mets are 3rd in the NL East with a record of 39-39. Houston is the slight money line favorite for this one, with the odds sitting at -114 compared to the Mets at -105. The over/under line is at 8.5 runs.
Check out BetCoco for New York Mets – Houston Astros odds
New York Mets Trends and Key Stats
- Across their last five road games, the Astros are 3-2. This includes going 3-2 vs. the runline.
- In the Mets’ five most recent home games, their record stands at 3-2 (SU) with 2-3 against the spread.
- In their previous ten games, the Astros have recorded a 6-4 record as the favorite, while they have a 6-4 record as the underdog.
- 7-3 is the record of the Mets as the favorite, while their record as the underdog stands at 8-2.
New York Mets vs Houston Astros Prediction
Houston closed out their series vs. the Rockies with an impressive 7-1 win. Heading into the game, the Astros were the heavy favorite at -195. Offensively, the Astros scored their seven runs on json11 hits and didn’t hit a home run.
Spencer Arrighetti put together a good start for the Astros, going seven innings and not giving up a run. He also issued just three walks and struck out 10 Rockies batters. Yainer Diaz was hot at the plate, going 3/4 with two RBIs.
Houston is currently at .500 for the season at 40-40, and they are riding a seven-game winning streak. The Astros will be on the road today vs. the Mets. In the AL West, they trail the Mariners by 4.5 games, and they lead the Rangers by 4.5 games.
At home, the Astros have gone 24-19 this year and are just under .500 on the road at 16-21. So far, they have struggled as the road favorite, going 10-16. As for their overall record as the favorite, the Astros are 31-32 and 9-8 as the underdog.
When it comes to covering the run line, the Astros have been a bit of a mixed bag this season. They have a losing record against the run line overall (38-42), but they have been better at home (22-21) than on the road (16-21). They have covered the run line in two straight road games and in five straight games overall. They have been the favorite in 63 games this season and have covered the run line in 28 of them. As an underdog, they have covered the run line in 10 of 17 games.
The Houston Astros are on the road today against the New York Mets, with the over/under line set at 8.5 runs. The combined run average in Astros games this season is 8.8 runs per game, and their over/under record is 28-48. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, their record is 8-13. Overall, 40.0% of their games have had higher over/under lines than 8.5 runs, while 33.8% have had lower lines.
Houston is sending Ronel Blanco to the mound today, and he comes in with a record of 8-2 and an ERA of 2.34. Blanco has made 14 starts this season and has pitched well, with opponents batting just .164 this season. Blanco has one complete game shutout this year and has turned in nine quality starts. In his most recent outing, Blanco went seven innings, giving up one earned run and getting the win. He has won each of his last three starts. Per nine innings, Blanco is averaging 8.4 strikeouts and 3.61 walks.
So far this season, the Astros have been the top-hitting team in the league, batting a collective .263. They also have the fewest strikeouts in the league and have the league’s 6th best slugging percentage. Overall, they are averaging 4.6 runs per game, but that number jumps to 5.1 runs per game when playing at home. The Astros are also among the league leaders in home runs, and their isolated power (ISO) of .158 is 9th best in the league.
Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker have been the Astros top power threats this season, with Alvarez leading the team with 41 RBIs and Tucker’s 19 homers being the best mark on the team and 6th best in the MLB. Over his last eight games, Alex Bregman has gone 13/34, and for the season, he is batting .382.
New York is coming off a big 12-2 win over the Yankees to close out their series. Leading up to the game, they were the slight favorite at +108 on the money line. It was a three-run 3rd inning that really turned things in their favor, and the Yankees could only score two runs, both of which came in the 6th.
Sean Manaea put together a good start for the Mets, going five innings and not giving up a run. He only had three strikeouts in the outing and got the win. The Mets’s offense was carried by Francisco Alvarez, who went 3/3 with a homer and three RBIs.
The Mets are at an even 39-39 this season, and they are 12.5 games behind the Phillies in the NL East. New York is 11-10 in divisional games this year and have won three straight games heading into today’s matchup vs. the Astros. Their three-game winning streak has come at home, and they are 20-23 at home this year.
At home, the Mets have won seven straight games as the underdog, and they are 6-10 as the underdog at home this year. As the favorite, the Mets are 20-19 this year and 19-16 as the underdog overall. New York has an overall series record of 13-12-3 this year and have won six straight series overall. Their road series winning streak is at four straight series.
The Mets have been a solid bet on the run line this season, going 37-41 overall. They have been especially profitable on the run line on the road, going 21-14. The Mets have covered the run line in four straight games at home and have covered the run line in seven straight games as the underdog. Overall, the Mets have an average run margin of 0.1 runs per game this season.
Despite the Mets’ over/under record of 40-36, the over has hit in 11 of their 20 games with an over/under line of 8.5 runs this season. Their games have averaged 9.5 runs per game, and the over has hit in two straight games. The over/under line for today’s game against the Astros is set at 8.5 runs, which is higher than their season average of 8 runs per game.
New York is sending left-hander Jose Quintana to the mound today vs. the Astros. Quintana has made 15 starts this year and has a record of 3-5 with a 4.58 ERA. So far, he has turned in five quality starts and is coming off a game in which he didn’t allow an earned run. In that outing vs. the Cubs, he went 6 1/3 innings, giving up just one unearned run. Quintana has been much better at home, coming in with an ERA of 3.82 compared to 7.24 on the road. His ERA for the season was 5.75 before these last two outings.
Heading into today’s game, the Mets are 4.8 runs per game, which is 8th in the league. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.7 runs per contest. Overall, they are 4th in home runs and have the league’s 7th best team batting average. Over the team’s last seven games, Francisco Alvarez has been on fire, going 12/22 with three homers and seven RBIs.
Brandon Nimmo has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 4/27 with four homers and 11 runs scored in his last seven games. For the season, Nimmo is batting .242 and is the Mets’ leader in RBIs. Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor are also near the top of the team’s home run leaderboard, with 16 and 13 homers, respectively.
With the Mets at -105 to pick up a win at home, this is where we see the best value in this matchup. Our predicted score is 5-4 in favor of the Mets, giving us some wiggle room to take the Mets on the money line.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Jose Quintana is projected to go 5-6 innings, finishing with five strikeouts. As for Ronel Blanco, we have him going six innings and finishing with six K’s. However, we have Quintana finishing with a lower ERA and picking up the win.
New York Mets vs Houston Astros Betting Tips
- Take the Astros on the moneyline
- On the run line we like Mets (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over
New York Mets Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | Out | Knee |
| Brooks Raley | Out | Elbow |
| Edwin Díaz | Out | Suspension |
| Sean Reid-Foley | Out | Shoulder |
| Drew Smith | Out | Elbow |
| Kodai Senga | Out | Shoulder |
| Shintaro Fujinami | Out | Shoulder |
| Ronny Mauricio | Out | Knee |
| Christopher Larez | Out | Personal |
Houston Astros Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Verlander | Out | Neck |
| Kendall Graveman | Out | Shoulder |
| Lance McCullers Jr. | Out | Forearm |
| Victor Caratini | Out | Hip Flexor |
| Kyle Tucker | Out | Shin |
| Cristian Javier | Out | Elbow |
| Luis Garcia | Out | Elbow |
| Bennett Sousa | Out | Shoulder |
| José Urquidy | Out | Elbow |
| Penn Murfee | Out | Elbow |
| Oliver Ortega | Out | Elbow |
| Jake Bloss | Out | Shoulder |
