New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds Preview
Jose Quintana will start for the Mets on Saturday, as they look to move to 9-0 in their last nine games. They are 77-64 this season and their money line odds are currently at -157. As for the Reds, they have Jakob Junis on the mound and are the slight underdog on the money line (+133). Saturday’s over/under line is sitting at 8.5 runs, and the game is being televised on SNY.
First pitch from Citi Field is set for 4:10 PM ET, and the forecast calls for light rain and temperatures in the low 70s. In the NL Central, the Reds are 4th with a record of 68-74.
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New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Trends and Key Stats
- The Reds are 1-4 in their five most recent road games, including a 1-4 runline record.
- The Mets, on the other hand, have played five home games recently, during which they have recorded a 4-1 (SU) and 4-1 record.
- In their last ten games as the favorite, the Mets have a record of 8-2 straight-up, and have gone 6-4 against the runline.
- Looking at the Reds’ previous ten games as the underdog they are 4-6 straight-up and 6-4 vs. the runline.
It was a low-scoring game in the most recent game of this Mets vs Reds series. New York went into the matchup as -172 favorites and squeaked out a 6-4 win. The Mets offense only had two more hits than the Reds and struck out 10 times.
Cincinnati had a chance to win the game in the 10th inning, as they scored two runs off Mets closer Jose Butto. Butto still got the save, and Fernando Cruz only went one inning for the Reds, giving up two earned runs on two hits.
Sean Manaea got the win for the Mets, going 6 2/3 innings and giving up four earned runs. He finished the game with nine strikeouts but issued two walks. As for the Reds, Justin Wilson took the loss out of the bullpen.
New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction
Cincinnati is 68-74 overall, putting them 4th in the NL Central. Currently, they trail the Cardinals by 3.5 games for the 3rd spot in the division and are 13.5 games behind the Brewers for the division lead. The Reds are on a two-game losing streak, dropping the series opener vs. the Mets and are 5-5 over their last 10.
At home, the Reds are 36-39 this season and 32-35 on the road. As the underdog, Cincinnati is 20-29 this year and 33-33 as the favorite. This season, the Reds’ overall series record is 17-25-3.
The Reds have been a solid bet against the run line this season, going 76-66 overall. They have been especially good on the road, where they are 41-26 against the run line. They have a positive run differential on the road this season, averaging 0.6 more runs per game than their opponents.
The Cincinnati Reds are on the road today against the New York Mets, and the over/under line for the game is set at 8.5 runs. The Reds and their opponents have combined to average 8.9 runs per game this season, and their over/under record for the year is 67-68. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, their record is 16-12. Overall, 72 of their games this season have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs or higher, accounting for 50.7% of their games.
Jakob Junis is getting the start for the Reds today and has made 20 appearances this season. He has a record of 4-0 and an ERA of 3.13. Looking back at his last outing, Junis came out of the bullpen and went 3 2/3 innings. In that outing, he gave up one earned run, two hits, and didn’t issue a walk. Junis didn’t give up a homer in that outing. Before that, he had made three straight starts and didn’t give up more than two earned runs in any of them. Opponents are batting .224 off Junis this season.
Elly De La Cruz has been one of the Reds’ top hitters this season, batting .263 with a team-high 23 home runs. He is also 2nd on the team with 65 RBIs. De La Cruz has gone 5/20 in his last five games with one home run and five runs scored. Jeimer Candelario is 2nd on the team in homers, but he has just a .225 batting average.
Over the past five games, the Reds have had some good offensive performances, with Ty France going 9/18 and Jake Fraley and Elly De La Cruz each going 5/20. Nick Martini and Spencer Steer are both on three-game hitting streaks.
The Mets are currently on an eight-game winning streak, and they are eight games behind the Phillies for the NL East lead. New York’s overall record is 77-64, and they are 22-17 in divisional games. The Mets have won five straight games at home, and they are 39-33 at home this season.
So far, the Mets have been good as the favorite, going 50-35, and they are 27-29 as the underdog. New York has an overall series record of 24-16-8 this year, and they have won three straight series overall and two straight series on the road. The Mets have gone 9-1 over their last 10 games and are winning the series vs. the Reds 1-0.
When betting the run line, the Mets have been a better play on the road this season, going 39-30 compared to 32-40 at home. Overall, they are 71-70 against the run line, and they have covered in their last four home games. The Mets have been favored in 85 games this season, going 38-47 against the run line, while they are 33-23 when getting points.
The New York Mets are hosting the Cincinnati Reds today, with the over/under line set at 8.5 runs. The Mets have a combined run average of 9.2 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 71-66. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, their record is 25-17. Overall, 35 of their games this season have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs, accounting for 24.8% of their games. Their current over streak is at three games.
Jose Quintana gets the start for the Mets today and will be looking to build off his last outing, where he gave up just one earned run in 5 innings of work. In that outing vs. the White Sox, he picked up the win. So far this season, Quintana has made 27 starts and has a record of 7-9. His ERA for the season is 4.27, along with a WHIP of 1.32. Opposing batters are hitting .243 off Quintana this season. The left-hander has turned in nine quality starts and is averaging 6.94 strikeouts per nine innings.
Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso have been two of the Mets’ top power threats this season, with Lindor’s 30 homers being 2nd on the team and Alonso’s 31 long balls leading the team and being 11th in the league. Lindor is also 15th in the league with 84 RBIs, while Alonso is 2nd on the team in that category. Lindor has been especially hot of late, batting .324 over his last nine games, including three homers.
As a team, the Mets are 7th in the league in scoring at 4.8 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 4.9 runs per contest. Overall, they are 5th in the league in home runs and have the 9th best team batting average in the league.
We see the Reds taking this one on the road against the Mets, and with them being the underdog, we like them on the money line at +133. Offensively, the Reds are actually projected to have a better day at the plate than the Mets, as they have the Reds finishing with 11 hits compared to the Mets with nine.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Jakob Junis finishing with seven strikeouts compared to Jose Quintana with five. Quintana is projected to go just four innings, which is why we would stay away from a Mets pitcher getting the win.
New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Tips
- We like the Reds on the moneyline (+133)
- The Reds are also our pick on the spread at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
New York Mets Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Brooks Raley | Out | Elbow |
| Jeff McNeil | Questionable | Wrist |
| Paul Blackburn | Out | Hand |
| Sean Reid-Foley | Out | Shoulder |
| Drew Smith | Out | Elbow |
| Kodai Senga | Out | Calf |
| Ronny Mauricio | Out | Knee |
| Dedniel Núñez | Out | Forearm |
| Christian Scott | Out | Elbow |
| Christopher Larez | Out | Personal |
Cincinnati Reds Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Jeimer Candelario | Out | Toe |
| Nick Lodolo | Out | Finger |
| Austin Wynns | Out | Teres Major |
| Nick Martini | Out | Thumb |
| Stuart Fairchild | Out | Thumb |
| Hunter Greene | Out | Elbow |
| Ian Gibaut | Out | Forearm |
| Matt McLain | Out | Shoulder |
| Graham Ashcraft | Out | Elbow |
| Tejay Antone | Out | Elbow |
| Christian Roa | Out | Shoulder |
| Andrew Abbott | Out | Shoulder |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | Out | Wrist |
