New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds Preview
From Citi Field in New York, the Reds and Mets face off in an NL matchup. First pitch for this one is set for 7:10 PM ET, and the forecast calls for cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. SNY will be televising Friday’s matchup, and the money line odds have the Mets at -181 compared to the Reds at +150. The over/under line is currently 7.5 runs.
Sean Manaea will be starting for the Mets, and he is facing off against a Reds team that has won four straight. Cincinnati is 68-73 overall and will be starting Fernando Cruz. In the NL Central, the Reds are 4th, while the Mets are 2nd in the NL East.
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New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Trends and Key Stats
- Across their last five road games, the Reds are 2-3. This includes going 2-3 vs. the runline.
- In the Mets’ five most recent home games, their record stands at 4-1 (SU) with 4-1 against the spread.
- Over their last ten games when playing as the favorite, the Mets have won 8-2 straight-up, and have a 6-4 record vs. the runline.
- Over their previous ten games as the underdog, the Reds have a straight-up record of 4-6 and a 6-4 record vs. the runline.
New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction
The Reds’s offense was carried by Ty France in their most recent game vs. the Astros. France went 2/3 with a homer and scored the team’s only run. The Reds really needed his big game, as they only won the game 1-0. Cincinnati was the +131 underdog at home going into the game.
Rhett Lowder got the start for the Reds, going 6 1/3 innings, and didn’t give up a run. He also issued just three walks and struck out three. Tony Santillan got the win out of the bullpen, and Alexis Diaz picked up the save.
Cincinnati is on a four-game winning streak, and they will be looking to keep it going today on the road vs. the Mets. Currently, the Reds are 68-73 overall, putting them 4th in the NL Central. They are 13.5 games behind the Brewers for the division lead.
The Reds have an overall record of 20-23 against other NL Central teams. At home, they are 36-39 this year and 32-34 on the road. This season, the Reds are 33-33 as the favorite and 35-40 as the underdog. As the road underdog, Cincinnati has gone 20-28.
Despite being just one game above .500 on the season, the Reds have been a solid bet on the run line, going 76-65. They have been particularly good on the run line on the road, going 41-25, and have covered the run line in eight straight games as the underdog. Their average run differential is just +0.1 runs per game on the season.
The Cincinnati Reds are on the road today against the New York Mets, and the over/under line for the game is set at 7.5 runs. The combined run average for Reds games this season is 8.8 runs per game, and their over/under record for the season is 66-68. The average over/under line for Reds games this season is 9 runs, and when the line is set at 7.5 runs, their record is 8-10. The majority of Reds games this season have had higher over/under lines than 7.5 runs, with 117 games having higher lines compared to just 6 games with lower lines.
Through 63 appearances, Fernando Cruz has made just two starts for the Reds. He is coming off a start in which he went just 2 innings and didn’t give up a run. In that outing vs. the Brewers, he gave up one hit and one walk. Cruz has a record of 3-8 and an ERA of 4.99. Opponents are batting .203 off the right-hander this season. Cruz’s ERA on the road is 6.67, compared to 5.58 at home. He has a WHIP of 1.35 and is averaging 14.05 strikeouts per nine innings.
Elly De La Cruz comes into the game as the Reds’ top home run hitter, and he is also 2nd on the team in RBIs. De La Cruz is batting .263 for the season and has an OBP of .344. Spencer Steer leads the Reds in RBIs, as his 86 RBIs is 12th in the league. However, he is batting just .234 for the season.
Jonathan India has struggled a bit at the plate for the Reds of late, hitting just .235 over his last nine games. However, he has two homers in that stretch. Ty France has been hot for the Reds, going 16/35 in his last 10 games, with one home run. France also comes into the game on a three-game hitting streak.
The Mets’s offense was hot right out of the gates in their most recent game vs. the Red Sox, closing out their series with an 8-3 win. After allowing three runs to the Red Sox in the top of the first, the Mets responded with four runs of their own. New York went on to add another four runs in the 4th inning.
Starting for the Mets was Tylor Megill, who picked up the win. He went four innings, giving up three earned runs on five hits. Jesse Winker had only one hit, but it was a home run, and the Mets scored four runs in the inning.
The Mets are hosting the Reds today with an overall record of 76-64, and they have won seven straight games. In the NL East, they are eight games behind the Phillies for the division lead. New York’s record vs. other teams in the NL East is 22-17 this year.
At home, the Mets are 38-33 this year and 38-31 on the road. New York has won seven straight games as the favorite, and they are 49-35 when favored this year. As for their record as the underdog, they are 27-29 this year. The Mets have won four straight home games, and they are 31-22 as the favorite at home.
The Mets are 70-70 against the run line this season, including a 31-40 mark at home. They have covered the run line in three straight games at home and are 6-0 against the run line in their last six games as the favorite. Their average run differential this season is +0.4 runs per game.
The over/under line for tonight’s game between the New York Mets and Cincinnati Reds is set at 7.5 runs. The Mets have played in 98 games this season with over/under lines set higher than 7.5 runs, and their games have averaged 9.2 runs per game. Their over/under record for the season is 70-66, and when the line is set at 7.5 runs, they have gone over 16 times and under 15 times. The over has hit in each of their last two games.
New York is sending left-hander Sean Manaea to the mound today vs. the Reds. He has made 27 starts this season and has a record of 11-5 with a 3.35 ERA. Manaea’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.11. In his 27 appearances, he has turned in 12 quality starts. Manaea’s most recent outing was on September 1st vs. the White Sox, where he picked up the win, going seven innings and not allowing a run. In that outing, he gave up just two hits, two walks, and didn’t allow a homer. Before that, he had given up a homer in three straight outings. The left-hander has been pitching well lately, as he is 3-0 in his last three starts.
Francisco Lindor comes into today’s game with a 15-game hitting streak and has been hot at the plate over his last six games, batting .375 with two homers. For the season, he is hitting .274 with 30 homers and 84 RBIs, which is 13th best in the league. Pete Alonso is also a power threat in the Mets lineup, as he has 31 homers but is batting just .240 this season.
Overall, the Mets are 7th in the league in scoring at 4.8 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 4.9 runs per contest. As a team, they are 5th in the league in home runs and are among the league leaders in on-base percentage and slugging.
Our prediction for this Reds vs. Mets matchup is to take the Reds on the money line. At +150, we have the Reds winning this one by a final score of 6-5. If you’re looking for a parlay, you could also take a look at the over/under, with the line sitting at 7.5 runs. We have this game going over that line.
Looking at the starting pitchers, our projections have Fernando Cruz going deeper into the game than Mets starter Sean Manaea. Cruz is projected to finish with five strikeouts, compared to Manaea with six.
New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Tips
- We like the Reds on the moneyline (+150)
- The Reds are also our pick on the spread at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
New York Mets Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Brooks Raley | Out | Elbow |
| Paul Blackburn | Out | Hand |
| Sean Reid-Foley | Out | Shoulder |
| Drew Smith | Out | Elbow |
| Kodai Senga | Out | Calf |
| Ronny Mauricio | Out | Knee |
| Dedniel Núñez | Out | Forearm |
| Christian Scott | Out | Elbow |
| Christopher Larez | Out | Personal |
Cincinnati Reds Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Jeimer Candelario | Out | Toe |
| Nick Lodolo | Out | Finger |
| Austin Wynns | Out | Teres Major |
| Nick Martini | Out | Thumb |
| Stuart Fairchild | Out | Thumb |
| Hunter Greene | Out | Elbow |
| Ian Gibaut | Out | Forearm |
| Matt McLain | Out | Shoulder |
| Graham Ashcraft | Out | Elbow |
| Tejay Antone | Out | Elbow |
| Christian Roa | Out | Shoulder |
| Andrew Abbott | Out | Shoulder |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | Out | Wrist |
