New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs Preview
At 7:10 PM ET, the Cubs and Mets will face off in an NL matchup. This one is being played at Citi Field in New York and features a Cubs club that is 17-11 compared to the Mets at 14-13. Luis Severino is starting for the Mets, and he is facing off against Jameson Taillon for the Cubs.
New York is at -127 on the money line compared to the Cubs at +107. The over/under line is sitting at 8 runs. If you’re looking to watch this one on TV, it is being carried by MARQ.
Check out BetCoco for New York Mets – Chicago Cubs odds
New York Mets Trends and Key Stats
- Over the course of their previous five away games, the Cubs have recorded a 2-3 record, with a 4-1 performance on the runline.
- The Mets, on the other hand, have played five home games recently, during which they have recorded a 2-3 (SU) and 2-3 record.
- Over their last ten games when playing as the favorite, the Mets have won 7-3 straight-up, and have a 6-4 record vs. the runline.
- Looking back at their last ten games as the underdog, the Cubs have a 6-4 straight-up record and a 8-2 record vs. the runline.
New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs Prediction
Chicago is coming off a game in which they wasted several good performances. In their 5-4 loss to Boston, Mike Tauchman went 2/4 with a homer and three RBIs. The Cubs also got a good start from Hayden Wesneski, giving up just one run while pitching four innings.
Mark Leiter Jr. took the loss out of the bullpen for the Cubs, as Chicago allowed three runs in the 8th to blow their lead. Heading into this game, the Cubs were at +126 on the money line.
Chicago’s overall record is 17-11 heading into today’s road matchup vs. the Mets. The Cubs lost the final two games of their series vs. the Red Sox after taking the first game of the series. Currently, they trail the Brewers by just a half-game in the NL Central.
At home, the Cubs have been strong, going 10-3 this year. On the road, they are 7-8 and have dropped two straight road games. As the underdog, Chicago is 10-8 this year compared to 7-3 as the favorite. The Cubs’ overall series record is 5-3-1 this year.
When the Cubs are on the road, they have a run line record of 11-4. Their average run margin in winning games is 3.6, while their average run margin in losing games is -4.3. Their overall run line record is 20-8, and they are 14-4 against the run line as an underdog.
So far this season, the Cubs have played in 27 games with over/under lines, and the over/under record is 13-14. The average over/under line in their games has been 8 runs, and the combined run average in their games has been 9.8 runs. The over/under line for today’s game against the Mets is 8 runs. The Cubs have played in 15 games with over/under lines higher than 8 runs (53.6% of their games), and their over/under record in games with lines higher than 8 runs is 0-5. They have played in 8 games with over/under lines lower than 8 runs (28.6% of their games).
Jameson Taillon will be making his first road start of the season for the Cubs, as he takes on the Mets. He has picked up wins in each of his first two starts, with his most recent outing coming against the Astros, where he went 5 2/3 innings and struck out 4.
Chicago comes into the game with the league’s 6th best scoring offense, averaging 5.1 runs per game. They have been even better at home, putting up 5.8 runs per game. Overall, the Cubs are 7th in home runs and are batting a collective .245, which is 11th in the league. One thing to watch is that their team leader in home runs, Michael Busch, is just batting .226 for the season.
Over his last nine games, Mike Tauchman is batting .345 with three homers, and Nico Hoerner has gone 13/41 in that stretch. Hoerner is batting .282 for the season and has a team-high seven RBIs. Cody Bellinger and Busch are tied for the team lead with 17 RBIs, but Bellinger is batting just .226.
Mark Vientos is coming off a big game for the Mets, going 2/2 with a homer and two RBIs. The Mets really broke out offensively in their most recent game vs. the Cardinals, a 4-2 win. New York’s other big performance came from Reed Garrett out of the bullpen, as he picked up the save and struck out three in his inning of work. The Mets also got a good start from Jose Quintana, going eight innings and giving up just one run while striking out three.
Heading into the game, the Mets were the slight favorite at -140 on the money line. They scored the game’s first run in the 3rd inning and added three more in the 6th to put things out of reach. The Cardinals could only score two runs, both of which came in the 5th.
The Mets are at home today, hosting the Cubs, with an overall record of 14-13. They are 5.5 games behind the Braves in the NL East and are 3rd in the division. New York closed out their series vs. the Cardinals with a win and are 5-4 in series this year.
At home, the Mets are 7-8 this year compared to 7-5 on the road. So far, they have been the favorite in 15 games, going 8-7, and 6-6 as the underdog. New York’s overall record is a result of dropping two of their last three series.
When the Mets win, they tend to do so by a comfortable margin, as their average run differential in those games is +3.6. The run line has been a solid bet for the Mets on the road, where they are 8-4 against the run line, compared to 6-9 at home. They have been a slight underdog in more games than they have been a favorite, and they have been a better bet against the run line as the underdog, going 7-5.
Today’s over/under line of 8 runs for the New York Mets’ game against the Chicago Cubs is right around their season average of 8.9 combined runs per game. The Mets are 14-13 on over/unders this season, and when the line has been set at 8 runs, they are 1-2. Overall, their games have had over/under lines set at 8 runs in 51.9% of their games, with 10 games having lower lines and 14 games having higher lines.
Coming off a loss in his last start, Luis Severino will be on the mound for the Mets at home against the Cubs. Severino has started 3 games so far this season, going 1-1. He picked up a win in his first start of the season, then took a loss in his last outing, where he went 6 innings and gave up 3 earned runs.
So far this season, the Mets are averaging 4.6 runs per game, which is 15th in the league. They have been a better offensive team on the road, averaging 5.6 runs per game. As a team, they are batting .243, which is 13th in the league, and are 6th in home runs. One area where they have struggled is with their team on-base percentage, as they are just 10th in the league in this category.
Over his last eight games, Francisco Lindor has gone 9/31 (.290) with three home runs. This has raised his season average to just .202. Pete Alonso is hitting just .248 for the season and has gone 7/31 in his last eight games. However, he does lead the team with eight homers.
Our prediction for this Cubs vs. Mets matchup is that the Cubs will pick up a 5-4 road win. Given that the Cubs are the underdogs in this one, we like them on the money line, where they are currently at +107.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Luis Severino finishing with six strikeouts for the Mets and Jameson Taillon with four for the Cubs. However, Severino is projected to go deeper into the game, and we have him finishing with more innings than Taillon.
New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs Betting Tips
- We like the Cubs on the moneyline (+107)
- The Cubs are also our pick on the spread at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over
New York Mets Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | Out | Personal |
| Brooks Raley | Out | Elbow |
| Drew Smith | Out | Shoulder |
| Kodai Senga | Out | Shoulder |
| David Peterson | Out | Hip |
| Ronny Mauricio | Out | Knee |
| Francisco Alvarez | Out | Thumb |
| Tylor Megill | Out | Shoulder |
| Christopher Larez | Out | Personal |
Chicago Cubs Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Drew Smyly | Out | Hip |
| Cody Bellinger | Out | Ribs |
| Kyle Hendricks | Out | Back |
| Justin Steele | Out | Hamstring |
| Seiya Suzuki | Out | Oblique |
| Julian Merryweather | Out | Back |
| Caleb Kilian | Out | Teres Major |
| Jordan Wicks | Out | Forearm |
