New York Mets vs Boston Red Sox Preview
The forecast for Monday’s Red Sox vs. Mets matchup calls for cloudy skies and temperatures in the low 80s. First pitch is set for 7:10 PM ET from Citi Field in New York, and SNY will be televising this one. The Red Sox are 70-67 and the Mets 73-64, with the game’s money line odds favoring the Mets at -127 compared to the Red Sox at +107. Boston will be looking to snap a two-game losing streak, as they are currently 3rd in the AL East, while the Mets have won four straight and are 3rd in the NL East.
Monday’s starting pitching matchup features Brayan Bello for the Red Sox and Luis Severino for the Mets. The over/under line is currently at 8 runs, and the Mets are the favorites to win the World Series at +1400, while the Red Sox are +2500.
Check out BetCoco for New York Mets – Boston Red Sox odds
New York Mets vs. Boston Red Sox Trends and Key Stats
- Over the course of their previous five away games, the Red Sox have recorded a 3-2 record, with a 3-2 performance on the runline.
- The Mets, on the other hand, have played five home games recently, during which they have recorded a 4-1 (SU) and 4-1 record.
- As the favorite, the Mets are 8-2 over their last ten games, including going 6-4 vs. the runline.
- Over their previous ten games as the underdog, the Red Sox have a straight-up record of 3-7 and a 6-4 record vs. the runline.
New York Mets vs Boston Red Sox Prediction
Boston closed out their series vs. the Tigers with a 4-1 loss on the road. Heading into the game, the Red Sox were the slight favorite at -108 on the money line. Things started off well for the Red Sox, as they got on the board with a run in the 5th inning but couldn’t hold the lead. The Tigers scored two runs in the 6th to take the lead and added another two runs in the 7th to put things out of reach. Boston’s offense scored their only run on a single by Romy Gonzalez, going 2/3.
Cooper Criswell got the start for the Red Sox and took the loss. He only lasted four innings, giving up three earned runs. Rich Hill, who took the loss out of thejson, didn’t record an out and gave up two earned runs. The Red Sox also issued three walks in the 8th inning.
Boston is on the road today, taking on the Mets, and they are nine games out of the AL East lead. Overall, the Red Sox are 70-67 and have gone just 18-18 against other AL East teams. The Red Sox lost the final two games of their series vs. the Tigers, and they are just 3-7 over their last 10 games.
At home, the Red Sox are 31-38 this year compared to 39-29 on the road. As the underdog, Boston is 24-24 this year and 37-31 when favored. Their overall series record is 21-17-6.
When the Red Sox are on the road, they are 40-28 against the run line. Their average scoring margin away from Fenway Park is +0.8 runs per game. As the favorite, they are just 24-44 against the run line. Their average run differential in victories is +3.9 runs per game.
When the Boston Red Sox are on the road, the over/under line is set at 8 runs. The combined run average in their games this season is 9.5 runs, and their over/under record is 70-60. The average over/under line in their games is 9 runs, and when the line is set at 8 runs, their over/under record is 12-7-3. Overall, 69.3% of their games have had over/under lines set higher than 8 runs, and their current under streak is at 2 games.
Brayan Bello gets the start for the Red Sox today as he faces the Mets on the road. So far this season, he has made 25 starts and has a record of 12-6 with an ERA of 4.66. Bello’s WHIP for the season is 1.37, and he has turned in 10 quality starts. In his most recent outing, Bello was fantastic, going eight innings and not giving up a run. He picked up the win in that outing. Before that, he had given up at least one homer in three straight starts. Bello has been much better on the road, coming in with a record of 7-2 and an ERA of 4.68.
So far this season, the Red Sox offense has been one of the league’s best, averaging 4.8 runs per game (8th) and batting a collective .256, which is the 5th best mark in the MLB. They have also been one of the league’s best power-hitting teams, as they are 6th in home runs and have a collective isolated power (ISO) of .178, which is 4th best. Boston has been especially good at home this season, averaging 5.1 runs per game.
Outfielders Jarren Duran and Rafael Devers have been the Red Sox’s top power threats this season, with Duran having 21 homers and Devers at 28. Devers’ 80 RBIs is the best mark on the team and 15th best in the league. Over his last 10 games, Duran has gone 12/38 with three homers, while Tyler O’Neill has also gone deep three times in this stretch, but is hitting just .154.
Heading into their last game vs. the White Sox, the Mets closed out the series with a 2-0 win. Leading up to thethe game, they were the heavy favorite at -182. Offensively, the Mets only scored two runs but did so on seven hits. Francisco Lindor went 1/4 with a homer, and the Mets also had three other players with two hits.
Sean Manaea got the start for the Mets, going seven innings, and didn’t give up a run. He also issued just two walks and struck out five. The Mets’s bullpen closed things out with Edwin Diaz picking up the save.
The Mets are eight games above .500 at 73-64 as they host the Red Sox today. New York is on a four-game winning streak, and they trail the Phillies by seven games in the NL East. Overall, they are 22-17 against other teams in the NL East.
As the favorite, the Mets have gone 46-35 this year and 27-29 as the underdog. They have been really good as the home favorite, going 28-22. New York has won two straight series, and their overall series record is 23-16-8.
Despite their overall run line record being below .500, the Mets have been a profitable team to bet on the run line when they are on the road. They are 39-30 on the run line away from home, compared to just 28-40 at home. The Mets’ average run margin in winning games is +3.6, while their average run margin in losing games is -3.5.
When the Mets play at home, the over/under line is set at 8 runs, and their games have averaged 9.2 runs per game this season. Overall, the over/under record for Mets games is 68-65, and when the line is set at 8 runs, the record is 14-6. In 56.2% of their games this season, the over/under line has been set at more than 8 runs, and the under has hit in their last four games.
Luis Severino is looking to bounce back from his last outing, where he finished with a no-decision. Against the Diamondbacks on August 28th, he gave up four earned runs in 4 2/3 innings of work. Before that outing, he had picked up the win in two straight starts. One of those wins was a shutout, and he also has a complete game this year. Overall, Severino is 9-6 with a 3.96 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. Opposing batters are hitting .233 off the right-hander this season.
Francisco Lindor has been swinging a hot bat for the Mets, as he is batting .302 over his last 10 games and is currently on a 12-game hitting streak. Over this stretch, he has four home runs and seven RBIs. For the season, he is batting .269 with 29 homers and 80 RBIs, which is 1st on the team and 15th in the MLB. Pete Alonso is also a big power threat in the Mets lineup, as he is 7th in the league with 30 homers.
As a team, the Mets are averaging 4.8 runs per game, which is 11th in the league. They are also near the top of the league in home runs and have the 5th best team slugging percentage in the MLB. Overall, they are batting .249, which is 10th in the league.
Our pick for today’s Red Sox vs. Mets game is to take the Red Sox on the money line, with the payout at +107. We actually have the Red Sox winning this one by a final score of 6-5.
Offensively, we have the Red Sox finishing with 11 strikeouts, which is the most in the league today. As for the Mets, they are projected to finish with just eight hits, which is the lowest in the league.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Brayan Bello going six innings and finishing with six strikeouts. As for Luis Severino, he is projected to finish with six strikeouts as well.
New York Mets vs Boston Red Sox Betting Tips
- We like the Red Sox on the moneyline (+107)
- The Red Sox are also our pick on the spread at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
New York Mets Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Brooks Raley | Out | Elbow |
| Paul Blackburn | Out | Hand |
| Sean Reid-Foley | Out | Shoulder |
| Drew Smith | Out | Elbow |
| Kodai Senga | Out | Calf |
| Ronny Mauricio | Out | Knee |
| Dedniel Núñez | Out | Forearm |
| Christian Scott | Out | Elbow |
| Christopher Larez | Out | Personal |
Boston Red Sox Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Luis García | Out | Elbow |
| James Paxton | Out | Calf |
| Liam Hendriks | Out | Elbow |
| Trevor Story | Out | Shoulder |
| Lucas Giolito | Out | Elbow |
| Lucas Sims | Out | Lat |
| Bryan Mata | Out | Lat |
| Garrett Whitlock | Out | Elbow |
| Chris Murphy | Out | Elbow |
| David Hamilton | Out | Finger |
| Cam Booser | Out | Elbow |
