New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Preview
The Braves and Mets will face off in an NL East matchup at 4:10 PM ET. This one is being played at Citi Field in New York, and the Mets are currently on a five-game winning streak. However, they are the slight money line underdog today at -117, while the Braves are at -101.
Today’s over/under line is sitting at 8.5 runs, and the forecasted temperature in New York is 82 degrees with a clear sky. BSSE will be televising this one, and Spencer Schwellenbach gets the start for the Braves, who are 3rd in the NL East. The Mets are 2nd in the division, with an overall record of 55-48, while the Braves are 54-48.
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New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves Trends and Key Stats
- Over the course of their previous five away games, the Braves have recorded a 2-3 record, with a 2-3 performance on the runline.
- On the other side, the Mets have gone 4-1 (SU) and 3-2 in their previous five home contests.
- In the past ten games, when playing as the favorite, the Braves have a record of 4-6, while as the underdog, they have a record of 1-9.
- The Mets hold a 7-3 record as the favorite and a 7-3 record as the underdog.
New York picked up an 8-4 win over the Braves in the most recent game of this series. The Mets offense got off to a fast start, scoring seven of their eight runs in the 1st and 2nd innings. As for the Braves, they scored their four runs in the 6th and 9th innings.
J.D. Martinez and Mark Vientos each homered for the Mets, while Francisco Alvarez scored three times and drove in a run while going 1/4. Adam Duvall hit two homers for the Braves and drove in three runs.
Kodai Senga only went 5 1/3 innings for the Mets but gave up just two hits and two earned runs while striking out nine. He picked up the win in the game. Charlie Morton struggled on the mound for the Braves, giving up five earned runs in just 2 2/3 innings of work.
New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Prediction
With their record of 54-48, the Braves are 3rd in the NL East, trailing the Phillies by 9.5 games. The Braves have lost six straight games, and they are 3-7 over their last ten. So far, they are just 14-14 in divisional matchups.
At home, the Braves have gone 30-21 this season, and they are 24-27 on the road. As the favorite, the Braves are 50-38 this season and 4-10 as the underdog. Atlanta will be looking to snap their six-game losing streak today, and they are 2-2 in the season series vs. the Mets.
Atlanta has a run differential of +0.4 runs per game, but they are just 45-57 against the run line this season. They have been a better run line bet on the road, going 24-27, compared to 21-30 at home. They are 6-8 against the run line as an underdog this season.
The Atlanta Braves are on the road against the New York Mets today. The O/U line for the game is set at 8.5 runs, which is higher than their combined run average of 8.0 runs per game. The Braves have an O/U record of 36-61 on the season, and their games have had an average O/U line of 8 runs. When the O/U line has been set at 8.5 runs, their record is 10-18. So far this season, 35.3% of their games have had O/U lines set higher than 8.5 runs.
Right-hander Spencer Schwellenbach gets the start for the Braves today as he faces the Mets on the road. He has made nine starts this year and has a record of 3-5 to go along with an ERA of 4.62. Schwellenbach’s WHIP for the season is 1.16. In his last outing, he took the loss, giving up four earned runs in six innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts. Schwellenbach has allowed a total of seven homers this year. Per nine innings, he is averaging 8.7 strikeouts and just 1.78 walks.
Marcell Ozuna has been one of the league’s top power hitters this season, as his 29 home runs are 3rd in the MLB and the top mark in the Braves lineup. Ozuna has also been hot of late, going 9/24 in his last seven games with three homers. For the season, he is batting .308, which is the best mark in the Braves lineup. Matt Olson and Austin Riley are also near the top of the team’s home run leaderboard, with 13 homers apiece.
As a team, the Braves are averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 19th in the league. They are also just 13th in team batting average and have the 20th on-base percentage in the league. Atlanta’s offense has been pretty consistent, as they are averaging 4.2 runs per game both at home and on the road.
With their five-game winning streak, the Mets are 55-48 overall this season, putting them nine games behind the Phillies for the NL East lead. New York leads the Braves by a half-game in the division and has gone 20-14 against other NL East teams. The Mets have taken the first two games of this series vs. the Braves.
At home, the Mets are 28-26 this year, and they are 27-22 on the road. As the underdog, the Mets have won three straight, and they are 22-22 as the underdog overall. New York’s record as the favorite is 33-26, and they are 16-12-6 in series this year.
When the Mets are the underdog, they have been a good bet on the run line this season, going 27-17. They are 23-36 on the run line as the favorite. Their average run differential is +0.3 runs per game, but in their wins, it jumps to +3.4 runs per game.
Today’s over/under line of 8.5 runs for the New York Mets’ home game against the Atlanta Braves is a bit lower than their season average of 9.5 combined runs per game. The Mets have played 24 games this season with over/under lines set at 8.5 runs, and the over has hit in 18 of those contests. Overall, the over has hit in 55 of their 100 games this season.
New York is sending Tylor Megill to the mound today vs. the Braves, and he comes into the game with a record of 2-4 and an ERA of 5.08. Megill has made eight starts this year and has a WHIP of 1.44. Looking at his overall numbers, opponents are batting .230 vs. Megill this year. In his last outing, he finished with a no-decision, going 5 1/3 innings vs. the Astros and giving up four earned runs. Before that, he had lost two straight starts. Megill’s only quality start came on June 16th vs. the Padres.
Francisco Lindor has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 9/31 in his last seven games with five homers and 10 RBIs. For the season, he is batting .257 with 22 homers and 62 RBIs, which is 1st and 2nd on the team, respectively. Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo are also near the top of the Mets home run leaderboard, with Alonso at 20 and Nimmo at 16.
As a team, the Mets are 5th in the league in scoring at 4.9 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.3 runs per contest. Overall, they are one of the league’s top home run-hitting clubs and are also 7th in team batting average.
There are a few ways you could look to play this game, but our top pick would be to take the Mets on the money line at -117. We have them winning this one by a score of 6-4, and with the payout being just under even money, this is the route we would recommend.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we do have Tylor Megill finishing with more strikeouts than Spencer Schwellenbach. Megill is projected to finish with four K’s, while Schwellenbach is at six.
New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Betting Tips
- Take the Braves on the moneyline
- The Mets are also our pick on the run line at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 10 runs, we like the over
New York Mets Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | Out | Knee |
| Brooks Raley | Out | Elbow |
| Harrison Bader | Questionable | Ankle |
| Sean Reid-Foley | Out | Shoulder |
| Drew Smith | Out | Elbow |
| Kodai Senga | Questionable | Calf |
| Reed Garrett | Out | Elbow |
| Ronny Mauricio | Out | Knee |
| Dedniel Núñez | Out | Elbow |
| Christian Scott | Out | Elbow |
| Christopher Larez | Out | Personal |
Atlanta Braves Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Matzek | Out | Elbow |
| Whit Merrifield | Probable | Finger |
| Ozzie Albies | Out | Wrist |
| Max Fried | Out | Forearm |
| Huascar Ynoa | Out | Elbow |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | Out | Knee |
| Angel Perdomo | Out | Elbow |
| Jimmy Herget | Out | Shoulder |
| Ray Kerr | Out | Elbow |
| Michael Harris II | Out | Hamstring |
| Spencer Strider | Out | Elbow |
| Hurston Waldrep | Out | Elbow |
