New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Preview
At 7:10 PM ET, the Braves and Mets face off in an NL East matchup. This one is being played at Citi Field in New York, and the Mets are the slight money line favorite (-136). The money line odds for the Braves are sitting at +116, and they will be looking to end a five-game losing streak.
Friday’s over/under line is at 8 runs, and the game can be seen on SNY. Charlie Morton is starting for the Braves, and the Mets are going with Kodai Senga. Both teams are 54-47 or 54-48, and the Mets are on a four-game winning streak.
Check out BetCoco for New York Mets – Atlanta Braves odds
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves Trends and Key Stats
- 2-3 is the record of Braves in their last five road games. They have also gone 2-3 vs. the runline.
- In the Mets’ five most recent home games, their record stands at 4-1 (SU) with 3-2 against the spread.
- In their last ten games as the favorite, the Mets have a record of 7-3 straight-up, and have gone 5-5 against the runline.
- When playing as the underdog, the Braves have won 2-8 of their previous ten games straight-up, while going 2-8 against the runline.
New York picked up a 3-2 win over the Braves in the most recent game of this series. The Mets had a two-run 3rd inning and scored the game’s go-ahead run in the 5th. As for the Braves, they scored their only two runs in the 6th. Heading into the game, the Mets were at -102 on the money line.
Luis Severino started for the Mets and went five innings while giving up two runs and striking out six. Phil Maton got the win out of the bullpen, and Edwin Diaz got the save. Chris Sale put together a good outing for the Braves, going 7 1/3 innings and striking out nine.
Offensively, the Mets were led by Francisco Lindor and Jeff McNeil, as they were the only two Mets hitters to have more than one hit. Lindor, Austin Riley, and Matt Olson each homered for their respective teams.
New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Prediction
With their record of 54-47, the Braves are 2nd in the NL East, trailing the Phillies by 9.5 games. The Braves have lost five straight games, and they dropped the first game of this series vs. the Mets. So far, they are 14-13 in divisional games.
At home, the Braves have gone 30-21 this year, and they are just above .500 at 24-26 on the road. Atlanta has dropped two straight as the underdog, and their overall record as the favorite is 50-38. The Braves’ series record is 17-13-3 this year, and they have dropped two straight series.
When the Braves win, they win big, with an average run margin of 3.6 runs per game. They’ve covered the run line in 45 of their 101 games this season, but they’ve been a better bet on the road, going 24-26 against the run line. They’ve been favored in 88 of their games and have gone 39-49 against the run line in those contests.
The Atlanta Braves are on the road against the New York Mets today, with the over/under line set at 8 runs. The combined run average for Braves games this season is 7.9 runs, and their over/under record is 35-61. When the over/under line is set at 8 runs, their record is 4-8-1. So far this season, 63.4% of their games have had over/under lines set higher than 8 runs.
Charlie Morton gets the start for the Braves today as he faces the Mets on the road. He has made 18 starts this season and has a record of 5-5 with an ERA of 3.92. Morton’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.22. In his last outing, Morton finished with a no-decision, going six innings and giving up one earned run on six hits. He has actually finished with a no-decision in each of his last three outings. Morton has made eight quality starts this year and is averaging 8.8 strikeouts per nine innings. For the year, he has allowed 11 homers and is averaging 3.4 walks per nine innings.
Marcell Ozuna has been a big reason why the Braves offense is 3rd in the league in runs scored, as his 28 homers and 80 RBIs are both the best marks on the team and among the best in the MLB. He has also been hot of late, hitting .389 with four homers over his last 10 games. Austin Riley and Matt Olson have also been solid power threats, with 13 homers apiece.
As a team, the Braves are batting just .240, which is 14th in the league. However, they have been pretty good in terms of run production, averaging 4.2 runs per game. This is the same average they have put up at home and on the road.
The Mets are on a four-game winning streak, and they trail the Phillies by 10 games in the NL East. So far, they are 19-14 against other teams in the NL East. New York’s overall record is 54-48, and they are the 3rd in the NL East.
At home, the Mets are 27-26 this season and 27-22 on the road. As the favorite, the Mets are 32-26 this year and 22-22 as the underdog. New York’s overall series record is 16-12-6, and they are 7-3 over their last 10 games.
The Mets have a run line record of 22-31 at home this season, with an average run margin of 0.1 runs per game. Overall, their run line record is 49-53, with an average run margin of 0.2 runs per game. They have gone over the run line in 27 of 49 games as the underdog, compared to just 22 of 58 games as the favorite.
When the Mets play at home this season, the over/under line has been set at 8 runs on average. Their games have averaged 9.5 runs per game, and their over/under record is 54-45 overall. When the line has been set at 8 runs, their over/under record is 12-4. In total, 53 of their games have had over/under lines set at over 8 runs, accounting for 52.0% of their games.
Kodai Senga will be making his 30th start of the season against the Atlanta Braves. Last season, Senga went 12-7 with an ERA of 2.98 and a WHIP of 1.22. He allowed a batting average of .201 and an on-base percentage of .290. Senga’s FIP for the season was 3.63, and he gave up a total of 17 home runs. For the year, he had 16 quality starts and averaged 10.93 strikeouts per nine innings. His walks per nine innings came in at 4.17, and he averaged 2.7 walks per game. His strikeout-to-walk ratio for the season was 2.6.
Francisco Lindor has been on a tear for the Mets over his last 10 games, hitting six home runs and driving in 14 runs while going 14/39 (.359). For the season, he is batting .259 with 22 homers, which is 7th in the league. Brandon Nimmo leads the Mets with 63 RBIs and is 13th in the league with 16 homers. Pete Alonso is also a power threat in the lineup, as he is 9th in the league with 20 homers.
As a team, the Mets are 6th in scoring at 4.9 runs per game and have been even better on the road, averaging 5.3 runs per contest. Overall, they are 5th in home runs and have a collective batting average of .249.
Our predicted final score for this game is 6-5 in favor of the Mets. Given that they are also our predicted winners, we recommend taking them on the money line, with a payout of -136.
Looking at the starting pitchers, our projections have Charlie Morton finishing with eight strikeouts, compared to Kodai Senga with six. However, we have Senga finishing with more earned runs allowed and also have Morton going deeper into the game.
If you’re looking for a player prop bet, you could take Morton’s strikeout total, as we have him finishing with the highest strikeout total of any starter today.
New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Betting Tips
- Take the Mets on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Braves (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
New York Mets Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | Out | Knee |
| Brooks Raley | Out | Elbow |
| Harrison Bader | Questionable | Ankle |
| Sean Reid-Foley | Out | Shoulder |
| Drew Smith | Out | Elbow |
| Kodai Senga | Probable | Shoulder |
| Shintaro Fujinami | Out | Shoulder |
| Reed Garrett | Out | Elbow |
| Ronny Mauricio | Out | Knee |
| Christian Scott | Out | Elbow |
| Christopher Larez | Out | Personal |
Atlanta Braves Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Matzek | Out | Elbow |
| Whit Merrifield | Probable | Finger |
| Ozzie Albies | Out | Wrist |
| Max Fried | Out | Forearm |
| Huascar Ynoa | Out | Elbow |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | Out | Knee |
| Angel Perdomo | Out | Elbow |
| Jimmy Herget | Out | Shoulder |
| Ray Kerr | Out | Elbow |
| Michael Harris II | Out | Hamstring |
| Spencer Strider | Out | Elbow |
| Hurston Waldrep | Out | Elbow |
